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Happy Fourth of July to everyone but these Supreme Court justices 2024-07-04 10:00:41+00:00 - Monday’s 6-3 Supreme Court decision granting lifetime criminal immunity to presidents for official acts while in office is breathtaking in its dangerous implications for our nation’s future. By rewriting the rule that has governed presidential authority for the past 235 years — that no one, not even a president, is above the law — the court has given a green light to any future president inclined to wield his or her executive authority irrespective of the laws that apply to all other citizens and residents of the U.S. King George III would be pleased. I have no idea what motivated the majority to endorse such a sweeping display of judicial activism. It is no secret that some of these justices have strongly conservative ideological leanings. Some also have been less than discreet in broadcasting their political views. I have no idea what motivated the majority to endorse such a sweeping display of judicial activism. But regardless of motivation, what appalls and worries me most are the abject ignorance and apparent indifference of the six. Their ruling will have deeply disturbing practical consequences if an unprincipled and politically corrupt individual is ever elected president of the United States in the future. For the first 50 months of the Obama administration, I served as assistant to the president of the United States for homeland security and counterterrorism. In that role, I served as President Barack Obama’s senior counterterrorism adviser, as well as the individual who conveyed to the appropriate department or agency the president’s authorization to use lethal force against terrorists operating outside areas of active military hostilities. In each instance, President Obama was exacting in his insistence that the intelligence be vetted and verified and that the legal review be thorough, well-documented and unimpeachable. Some have disagreed with Obama’s decisions, but I firmly believe his primary focus, and the focus of all those involved in the deliberations, was to make sure that every act of his presidency was firmly anchored in law. Moreover, the president and his advisers wanted every lawful act of the administration to be principled, ethical, judicious, proportional, fair and necessary to save innocent lives. I bore witness to the president’s moral compass as he used it to guide and inform his actions, counterterrorism and otherwise. I am confident that President Joe Biden has a similarly strong and unwavering commitment to the rule of law. I am equally confident that he adheres to longstanding American principles and values as he carries out the solemn duties of the presidency. His public criticism of the Supreme Court ruling underscores that commitment. But what if a future president embraces the ruling? What if a future president with dictator-like ambitions seeks to quash any real or perceived political opposition by using the broad and unrivaled powers of the presidency, up to and including the use of lethal force? Such an individual may well wield the Supreme Court’s “Stay-Out-of-Jail card” as a cudgel and a helpful and expedient opportunity to vanquish adversaries, critics and rivals. For a president without a conscience or a sense of decency, the freedom to exercise limitless and unaccountable power could present too great a temptation to pass up. So, while a president has now been given immunity for official acts, irrespective of how patently heinous, grievous and criminal they might be, what about the implementers of those orders? What about the individuals, the civilian and uniformed members of the executive branch, who might be called on to break the law on behalf of their commander in chief? Law-abiding individuals would have a choice of unattractive options. If they perceive an order to be unlawful, they might refuse to comply, risking immediate dismissal, as well as potential criminal charges a corrupt and vengeful president could direct the Department of Justice to pursue. On the other hand, if individuals agree to carry out unlawful actions for which only presidents enjoys immunity, they would leave themselves open to subsequent criminal charges levied by the Department of Justice in future administrations. Perhaps, for some of these loyalists and sycophantic supplicants, a lawless president would be able to extend his nonsensical immunity by pre-emptively issuing pardons. The image of jackbooted thugs carrying out the dirty work of despots in other countries certainly comes to mind. In writing for the majority, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, who until this week had impressed me as a decidedly right-leaning but still generally sensible member of the nation’s highest court, said that the liberal justices’ dissent struck “a tone of chilling doom that is wholly disproportionate to what the Court actually does today.” The accuracy of that statement, however, is wholly dependent on whether only good and honest individuals who firmly believe in the rule of law take up future residence in the White House. I was fortunate to serve six presidents — from Jimmy Carter to Obama — all of whom viewed the rule of law as part of the bedrock foundation of our country. Unfortunately, not all current aspirants for America’s solemn office are either good or honest. Donald Trump has already demonstrated his willingness to use every unethical trick in the book not only to skirt the law, but also to undermine it. Thanks to the Roberts court, there is now a ruling to help men like Trump trample it. This is certainly not the America I thought we would live in as we celebrate the 248th anniversary of our country’s independence.
Rudy Giuliani’s new gig is sure to invite legal scrutiny 2024-07-04 10:00:41+00:00 - Rudy Giuliani may be barred from practicing law in New York over his repeated 2020 election lies, but he apparently still has a job. And it’s almost certain to continue his pitiful plunge into obscurity. Fellow election conspiracy theorist and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, who, like Giuliani, is facing multiple defamation lawsuits stemming from his election lies, announced Giuliani will host a show on Lindell’s FrankSpeech platform. According to Newsweek: On Tuesday, Lindell appeared on Steve Bannon‘s WarRoom show where guest hosts are filling in after Bannon surrendered himself to prison this week. “Speaking of Rudy Giuliani...we hired him over at FrankSpeech.com. He’s on my network now. He follows Steve Bannon, it’s Steve Bannon, and then after him is Lou Dobbs and then myself,” Lindell said. While speaking with Newsweek on Tuesday, Lindell explained that he hired Giuliani this week after he was suspended from WABC Radio where he hosted a daily show. Giuliani was suspended from the radio network in May after making unfounded claims about the 2020 election, the Associated Press reported. “They cancelled him,” Lindell told Newsweek. “He started yesterday. I’m on his show tonight.” Lindell also told Newsweek that Giuliani will be hosting a daily show throughout this week on his FrankSpeech network. Giuliani’s public free fall, from mayor of New York City to podcaster for a conspiratorial pillow-pusher, shows no end in sight. And this business arrangement is particularly interesting because of how it relates to Giuliani’s attempt to use bankruptcy to avoid paying his creditors, including former Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, who were targeted by Giuliani’s lies and won a nearly $150 million lawsuit against him. Giuliani’s creditors are reportedly probing his business arrangement with FrankSpeech as they seek to recoup the money he owes them. According to Law & Crime: Another batch of subpoenas has gone out in Rudy Giuliani’s bankruptcy case, this time targeting MyPillow, its CEO Mike Lindell, and FrankSpeech, Lindell’s streaming app and website. The former mayor’s creditors are looking to learn more about a contract — “Talent Services Agreement” — between Giuliani and FrankSpeech, seemingly the agreement Giuliani’s attorney Gary Fischoff referenced during a wide-ranging June 17 hearing, revealing a new five-day-a-week internet or radio show that would create $180,000 in additional income. So Lindell appears to have extended Giuliani a lifeline of sorts with this new job. He’s opening up his checkbook. And opening Giuliani up to more legal scrutiny, too.
Nathan's is the winner of its hot dog eating contest with Joey 'Jaws' Chestnut out 2024-07-04 10:00:00+00:00 - The July Fourth fireworks began early last month when Major League Eating announced that Joey “Jaws” Chestnut would not defend his Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest title. (It seems appropriate that the name of the contest is a mouthful.) Chestnut, who has won the event 16 times, is billed by Major League Eating as “the greatest eater in history,” but the world’s fastest will likely be fasting instead of feasting this Fourth of July. Depending on whom you ask, Chestnut either made the choice not to compete or he was unceremoniously banned by the league. Depending on whom you ask, Chestnut either made the choice not to compete or he was unceremoniously banned by the league. The problem, reportedly, is that Chestnut inked an endorsement deal with Impossible Foods, which makes meatless sausages and other animal-free products. Just how much he’ll earn from the deal is unclear, but you might say Chestnut bit off more than he could chew. With brands being protective of how their products are marketed, the indigestion is perhaps understandable. So, too, though, is Chestnut’s motivation. We all want a little extra bread. Even a championship eater has got to put food on the table. Counterintuitively, losing its most bankable star already has been a win for the league — and for Nathan’s. The men's competition (which begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2) will still take place, and, with the favorite out, it’s anyone’s game. The drama was all over the news weeks before the competitors were scheduled to step up to the, er, plate, providing better publicity for the hot dog giant than money could buy. That money is at the heart of the dispute should come as no surprise. This is the way things are in sports. I can hear your questions now: Is wolfing down hot dogs really a sport? Why do we have eating contests? Why do people compete? Is competitive eating morally wrong? Let me attempt to address these. We have eating contests because brands make money through them. That’s the American way. They are wildly successful marketing investments, thanks in large part to the throwback showmen behind Major League Eating. A brand spends money to host a competition. That competition attracts media attention, becomes an event, becomes a thing, builds brand awareness — and, ultimately, sells more product. The eating contest categories usually showcase products that are local to that place and in abundance, or that bear some strong connection to the community. And they have been held across the country for many decades. (To wit, New Orleans, where I live, was the site of blackberry eating contests as early as 1891, shrimp eating contests as early as 1893, oyster eating contests as far back as 1902 and crawfish eating contests by 1922.) People compete because that’s their nature. We like to see how we measure up against others — in lots of different ways. Or at least some of us do. Is it sophisticated? Maybe not. But our entertainment need not always be high-brow. We love our boxing and pro wrestling. “Dumb and Dumber” was box-office gold. Bill Shakespeare and Jeff Chaucer told some very dirty jokes, and they did all right for themselves. Yes, competitive eating is really a sport, and eaters are real athletes. Some eaters — Chestnut chief among them — are blessed with a natural ability to consume large amounts of food, and training only makes them better. They aren’t trying to swish a ball through a metal hoop or carry a spheroid into a certain area of a field after battling through an army of defenders. They aren’t trying to lift the most weight over their heads or to cross a line before others. They’re trying to place the most amount of weight into their stomachs, as fast as possible. Is competitive eating a moral affront? Experts may wish to weigh in, but I think of it this way: A competitive eater consumes several days’ worth of food in just a few minutes. But their caloric intake over those several days is likely largely the same whether they eat the food over time or all at once. That is to say, a person may down 50 or 60 hot dogs in 10 minutes. But, then, they will not eat again for several days. Binging and purging this is not. A “reversal of fortune” is grounds for disqualification in Major League Eating. Yes, competitive eating is really a sport, and eaters are real athletes. (That is not to downplay food insecurity, which is a horrible problem in America and elsewhere that must be solved. But my understanding is that putting a couple of hundred hot dogs from Coney Island back onto the open market is unlikely to do it.) Major League Eating, fans and Joey Chestnut himself seem to hold out hope for a resolution. But we may have seen our last serving of Joey Jaws. (At least as an MLE competitor. Chestnut has said he'll be competing in a hot-dog eating contest July 4 at Fort Bliss Army base in El Paso, Texas.) As in all sport, though, if he doesn't return to Major League Eating, a new generation waits in the wings, hungry for their chance. A new hero will arise. Ruth beget Gehrig, who beget DiMaggio, who beget Mantle and Jackson and Jeter and all the rest. They say every dog has its day, and Chestnut had plenty of dogs in his. Now, someone else gets a taste of the action. May the best eater wien.
China’s BYD inaugurates first plant in Thailand as it expands reach into Southeast Asia 2024-07-04 09:56:37+00:00 - BANGKOK (AP) — Chinese automaker BYD inaugurated its first electric vehicle plant in Thailand on Thursday, part of the company’s push into Southeast Asia while it also tackles wealthier markets in the U.S. and Europe. The factory’s opening comes on the same day that the European Union is expected to begin imposing higher tariffs on EVs made in China due to concerns over competition from the cheaper-priced imports. In the U.S., the Biden administration also is raising tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% from the current 25%. The U.S. currently imports very few Chinese cars, but like the European Commission, it worries that subsidies hurt domestic companies and cost jobs. The new factory in Rayong, south of Bangkok, was built in just 16 months and has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. It makes several BYD models and also batteries and transmissions. Its opening on Thursday was marked with great fanfare and included the presentation of a BYD Dolphin, a compact hatchback, to a charitable foundation under the patronage of the Thai royal family. That vehicle was the 8 millionth vehicle manufactured by BYD, the company said. Thailand aims to have 30% of all vehicles made in the country be electric by 2030. One in every three EVs sold in Thailand is made by BYD, though most cars on the roads now are still gas or diesel powered. BYD, which stands for “Build Your Dreams,” sold 3 million vehicles last year and its exports more than tripled to 243,000. In the first half of this year, the company sold 1.6 million EVs. It sold 30,650 EVs in Thailand last year and plans for its new factory to make the Dolphin, Atto 3, Seal and Sealion 6 EV models. BYD says the new factory is expected to create 10,000 jobs. Apart from Thailand and China, BYD also has or is building factories in Brazil, Hungary and Uzbekistan. According to BYD, the Dolphin can run 490 kilometers (about 300 miles) on a single charge. During a recent auto show in Bangkok, models on display were priced at 859,999 baht ($23,700), though reports said BYD would be offering steep discounts in Thailand on vehicles made in the new factory.
Europe Tells China’s Carmakers: Get Ready to Pay Tariffs 2024-07-04 09:17:48.277000+00:00 - The European Union took the next step on Thursday toward collecting new tariffs on Chinese electric cars, telling automakers to obtain guarantees from banks that they would be able to pay the taxes set to be made final in October. The move was expected. The bloc had said on June 12 that it would impose additional tariffs of 17 to 38 percent on electric vehicles imported from China. An investigation by the European Union had found what officials in Brussels describe as unfair subsidies by the Chinese government for electric car manufacturers. The Chinese government has denied that it subsidizes the industry. Beijing contends that low prices for electric cars made in China reflect vigorous competition and innovation instead. The two sides began talks on June 22 to try to resolve the dispute. “We are continuing to engage intensively with China on a mutually acceptable solution,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, the E.U. trade commissioner.
First-half sales of new cars in UK pass 1m for first time since before Covid 2024-07-04 09:06:00+00:00 - Carmakers have sold more than a million cars in the UK in the first half of the year for the first time since before the coronavirus pandemic as the sector gradually recovers from years of turmoil. Sales in the first six months of 2024 rose by 6% to just over 1m, compared with 949,000 in the same period last year, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the UK industry’s lobby group. The share of electric cars hit 19% in June, its highest this year. The SMMT suggested that the industry would sell about 2m cars over the year, also for the first time since 2019. Its chief executive, Mike Hawes, said that annual total would be “a bit below par” but that the recovery was a relief for the industry after years of struggles. However, the growth was “almost entirely business and fleet sales” rather than private buyers, Hawes told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “Given that most people buy with some kind of finance, with inflation high and interest rates high, it has made the cost of purchase more expensive.” Sales to private buyers fell for the ninth consecutive month, and were down 12% in the first half of the year compared with 2023. Annual car sales peaked in 2016 at a record 2.69m. After that they fell for three years – albeit remaining well above 2m – until they plunged in 2020 as the pandemic forced factories to pause production and prevented people from visiting showrooms for months. That was followed by years of supply-chain turmoil. Sales picked up to 1.9m in 2023, although that was still the weakest barring the pandemic years since before the global financial crisis of 2008. The rise of electric vehicles has also been a complicating factor for the industry, which must now sell more zero-emissions cars or else face steep fines. However, European manufacturers have complained that they are struggling to find buyers for their electric cars, which they have priced higher than petrol or diesel equivalents in order to cover the cost of batteries. Vauxhall, Peugeot and Fiat’s owner Stellantis last week threatened to close its UK factories because of the so-called zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. The market share of pure battery electric new cars remained about the same in the first half of 2024 as last year, at 16.6%, the SMMT said. In the first half of 2023 it was 16.1%. skip past newsletter promotion Sign up to Business Today Free daily newsletter Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning Enter your email address Sign up Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy . We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. after newsletter promotion Hawes said that “we have seen is something of a plateau flattening out” in demand for electric cars. “When these vehicles were first on the market, there really was high demand for them, because those were the early adopters,” he added. “We need to get that from the early-adopter phase into the mass market. That is never going to be smooth.” Carmakers had sold 827,000 cars in the first five months of the year, a 7% increase on 2023.
Fight Over Seabed Agency Leadership Turns Nasty 2024-07-04 09:05:02.731000+00:00 - Allegations of possible payments to help secure votes. Claims of abuse of agency funds by top diplomats. A possible job offer to entice a candidate to withdraw from a race. These are not the shenanigans of a corrupt election in an unstable country. Rather, they are efforts in the seemingly genteel parlors of a United Nations-affiliated agency, meant to sway decisions related to the start of seabed mining of the metals used in electric vehicles. It is all part of a nasty fight over who will be the next leader of the International Seabed Authority, which controls mining in international waters worldwide. The accusations of trickery underscore the controversial nature of the agency’s coming agenda and the billions of dollars at stake. Some countries are fiercely opposed to the idea of mining the world’s deepest waters while others see it as a badly needed economic opportunity. Whoever helms the agency’s top post over the next few years will have considerable influence over these decisions.
Apartments Could Be the Next Real Estate Business to Struggle 2024-07-04 09:02:24.463000+00:00 - It might seem like a great time to own apartment buildings. For many landlords, it is. Rents have soared in recent years because of housing shortages across much of the country and a bout of severe inflation. But a growing number of rental properties, especially in the South and the Southwest, are in financial distress. Only some have stopped making payments on their mortgages, but analysts worry that as many as 20 percent of all loans on apartment properties could be at risk of default. Although rents surged during the pandemic, the rise has stalled in recent months. In many parts of the country, rents are starting to fall. Interest rates, ratcheted higher by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, have made mortgages much more expensive for building owners. And while homes remain scarce in many places, developers may have built too many higher-end apartments in cities that are no longer attracting as many renters as they were in 2021 and 2022, like Houston and Tampa, Fla. These problems haven’t yet turned into a crisis, because most owners of apartment buildings, known in the real estate industry as multifamily properties, haven’t fallen behind on loan payments.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index hits a record high close of 40,913.65 2024-07-04 07:06:48+00:00 - TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index closed Thursday at a fresh record high of 40,913.65, pushing past its most recent record close set in March on heavy buying of automaker and technology shares. The index gained 0.8%, buoyed by heavy buying of technology and export-oriented shares. The index’s all-time high during intraday trading is 41,087.75, set on March 22. Its previous record close was 40,888.43, also set on March 22. The gains tracked an overnight rally on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq also hit fresh records. Both foreign and domestic investors have piled into the Japanese market in recent months even as the economy has slowed. Part of the attraction is the weakness of the Japanese yen, which is trading at 34-year lows against the dollar. A weak yen tends to push the dollar-denominated overseas profits of exporters higher when they are repatriated to Japan. But changes to investment regulations have also lured many Japanese investors into the equity market. As of this year, so-called NISA, or Nippon (Japan) Individual Savings Accounts, became tax-free investment options, with limits raised for how much can be kept in such accounts and for how long. Among big gainers on Thursday, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries advanced 3.8%; Nissan Motor Co. added 4.5% and Toyota Motor Corp. was up 2%. Computer chip testing equipment maker Advantest jumped 2.1%. The Nikkei 225 index has gained 22.4% so far this year. It surged in the late 1980s during Japan’s bubble economy, when asset prices soared. But it collapsed when that financial bubble imploded in early 1990, after hitting its earlier record of 38,915.87 at the end of 1989.
Things to Take to College That You Can’t Buy at Target 2024-07-04 07:00:19.612000+00:00 - Extra-long sheets. Shower shoes. The wall hooks and putty that hold things up but don’t leave marks. Most colleges provide a list of things that new students might bring if they’re living on campus, and most big-box stores stock all of it and then some. But there’s another list you may want to consider, containing things that aren’t at the end of any Target aisle or on anyone’s Amazon wish list. It includes the form that can allow you to help with an adult child’s health care — and one of your own creation that gives carte blanche to call you if the child somehow ends up in handcuffs. And how about some midnight pizza facilitation?
Britain’s Labour on track for huge majority, exit poll suggests, amid frustration with Conservatives 2024-07-04 04:01:21+00:00 - UK General Election 2024 Follow the AP’s live coverage of the election that looks set to be one of the most consequential since WWII. LONDON (AP) — Britain’s Labour Party was headed for a huge majority in a parliamentary election on Thursday, an exit poll suggested, against a gloomy backdrop of economic malaise, mounting distrust in institutions and a fraying social fabric. The poll released moments after voting closed indicated that center-left Labour’s leader Keir Starmer will be the country’s next prime minister, leading the party to power less than five years after it suffered its worst defeat in almost a century. A jaded electorate looks to have delivered a crushing verdict for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s center-right Conservative Party, leaving it in disarray after it has been in power since 2010. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks to staff members as he visits the DCS group distribution centre in Banbury, Britain, July 2, 2024. (Phil Noble/Pool photo via AP) Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer addresses an audience of Labour Party members and supporters at the Royal Horticultural Halls in London, June 29, 2024. (Stefan Rousseau/PA via AP) “Nothing has gone well in the last 14 years,” said London voter James Erskine, who was optimistic for change in the hours before polls closed. “I just see this as the potential for a seismic shift, and that’s what I’m hoping for.” While the suggested result appears to buck recent rightward electoral shifts in Europe, including in France and Italy, many of those same populist undercurrents flow in Britain. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has roiled the race with his party’s anti-migrant “take our country back” sentiment and undercut support for the Conservatives, who already faced dismal prospects. Take a look back at historic UK elections that changed the political dial This year’s election looks set to be one of the most consequential since World War II. Read more on that here. 1945: 1964: 1979: 1997: Labour is on course to win about 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons and the Conservatives 131, according to the exit poll. That would be the fewest number of seats for the Tories in their nearly two-century history and would leave the party in disarray. Still, Labour politicians, inured to years of disappointment, were cautious. “The exit poll is encouraging, but obviously we don’t have any of the results yet,” deputy leader Angela Rayner told Sky News. In a sign of the volatile public mood and anger at the system, some smaller parties appeared to have done well, including the centrist Liberal Democrats and Farage’s Reform UK. The poll is conducted by pollster Ipsos and asks people at scores of polling stations to fill out a replica ballot showing how they have voted. It usually provides a reliable though not exact projection of the final result. Full results will come in over the next hours. Hundreds of communities were locked in tight contests in which traditional party loyalties come second to more immediate concerns about the economy, crumbling infrastructure and the National Health Service. A woman carries electoral leaflets for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party in Clacton-on-Sea, England, Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda) In Henley-on-Thames, about 40 miles (65 kilometers) west of London, voters like Patricia Mulcahy, who is retired, sensed the nation was looking for something different. The community, which normally votes Conservative, may change its stripes this time. “The younger generation are far more interested in change,’’ Mulcahy said. “So, I think whatever happens in Henley, in the country, there will be a big shift. But whoever gets in, they’ve got a heck of a job ahead of them. It’s not going to be easy.” Britain has experienced a run of turbulent years — some of it of the Conservatives’ own making and some of it not — that has left many voters pessimistic about their country’s future. The U.K.'s exit from the European Union followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine battered the economy, while lockdown-breaching parties held by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his staff caused widespread anger. Johnson’s successor, Liz Truss, rocked the economy further with a package of drastic tax cuts and lasted just 49 days in office. Rising poverty and cuts to state services have led to gripes about “Broken Britain.” The first part of the day was sunny in much of the country — favorable weather to get people to the polls. In the first hour polls were open, Sunak made the short journey from his home to vote at Kirby Sigston Village Hall in his Richmond constituency in northern England. He arrived with his wife, Akshata Murty, and walked hand-in-hand into the village hall, which is surrounded by rolling fields. Labour has had a steady and significant lead in opinion polls for months, but its leaders warned in recent days against taking the election result for granted, worried their supporters would stay home. “Change. Today, you can vote for it,” leader Starmer wrote Thursday on the X social media platform. A couple of hours after posting that message, Starmer walked hand-in-hand with his wife, Victoria, into a polling place in the Kentish Town section of London to cast his vote. He left through a back door out of sight of a crowd of residents and journalists who had gathered. Labour has not set pulses racing with its pledges to get the sluggish economy growing, invest in infrastructure and make Britain a “clean energy superpower.” But nothing has really gone wrong in its campaign, either. The party has won the support of large chunks of the business community and endorsements from traditionally conservative newspapers, including the Rupert Murdoch-owned Sun tabloid, which praised Starmer for “dragging his party back to the center ground of British politics.” The Conservatives have acknowledged that Labour appeared headed for victory. In a message to voters on Wednesday, Sunak said that “if the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labour supermajority ready to wield their unchecked power.” He urged voters to back the Conservatives to limit Labour’s power. Former Labour candidate Douglas Beattie, author of the book “How Labour Wins (and Why it Loses),” said Starmer’s “quiet stability probably chimes with the mood of the country right now.” The Conservatives, meanwhile, have been plagued by gaffes. The campaign got off to an inauspicious start when rain drenched Sunak as he made the announcement outside 10 Downing St. Then, Sunak went home early from commemorations in France marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. Several Conservatives close to Sunak are being investigated over suspicions they used inside information to place bets on the date of the election before it was announced. Sunak has struggled to shake off the taint of political chaos and mismanagement that’s gathered around the Conservatives. But for many voters, the lack of trust applies not just to the governing party, but to politicians in general. “I don’t know who’s for me as a working person,” said Michelle Bird, a port worker in Southampton on England’s south coast who was undecided about whether to vote Labour or Conservative. “I don’t know whether it’s the devil you know or the devil you don’t.” ___ Follow AP’s coverage of elections around the world: https://apnews.com/hub/global-elections/
Is Xenophobia on Chinese Social Media Teaching Real-World Hate? 2024-07-04 04:00:12.405000+00:00 - The video posted last year on Chinese social media showed more than 100 Japanese children, supposedly at an elementary school in Shanghai, gathered in their schoolyard. Chinese subtitles quoted two students leading the group as screaming: “Shanghai is ours. Soon the whole China will be ours, too.” The messages were alarming and infuriating in China, which Japan invaded during World War II. Except that the scene actually took place at an elementary school in Japan. And the students were not stoking hatred of China; they were swearing an oath to play fair at what looked like a sporting event. The video wasn’t taken down until after it had been viewed more than 10 million times. Xenophobic online content like the schoolyard video is the subject of debate in China right now. Last week, a Chinese man stabbed a Japanese mother and her son in eastern China. Two weeks earlier, four visiting instructors from a college in Iowa were stabbed in northeastern China. Some Chinese are questioning the role that online speech plays in inciting real-world violence. China has the world’s most sophisticated system to censor the internet when it wants to. The government sets strict rules about what can and cannot be said about politics, economics, society and the country’s leadership. Internet companies deploy an army of censors. Private citizens censor themselves, knowing that what they post can get their social media accounts deleted or, worse, land them in jail.
Fed officials touted 'modest further progress' on inflation at last meeting: Minutes 2024-07-04 03:35:00+00:00 - Federal Reserve officials offered encouragement about the path of inflation while meeting in June but also made it clear that they didn’t expect to lower rates until they saw more evidence of a downward trend, according to minutes released by the central bank Wednesday. "Participants judged that although inflation remained elevated, there had been modest further progress toward the 2 percent goal in recent months," according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 11-12. "A number of developments in the product and labor markets supported their judgment that price pressures were diminishing." The meeting happened before the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — showed the slowest annual gain in more than three years during the month of May. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the last two inflation readings in April and May "do suggest that we are getting back on a disinflationary path” after some hotter-than-expected readings in the first quarter. But he reinforced the same point expressed at the last FOMC meeting — that the central bank will need to see more evidence of slowing inflation before cutting interest rates. Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards Several other policymakers at their last meeting in June even noted that if inflation were to persist at an elevated level or to increase further, rates might need to be raised, according to the minutes. Some members noted that there was uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness of current interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell leaves the US Capitol on June 17 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) (Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images) Some thought that the continued strength of the economy, along with other factors, could mean that the neutral rate — the level of interest rates that neither boost nor slow the economy — is higher than thought and could mean that financial conditions and rates may not be as restrictive as thought. On the flip side, a number of officials remarked that the central bank should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness. Several emphasized that with the job market normalizing, a further weakening of demand may now generate a bigger drop in employment than in the recent past. Officials next meet on July 30-31, where they are expected to hold rates steady at their highest level in more than two decades. Markets are focused on whether officials at that meeting might lay the groundwork for a rate cut at their subsequent gathering in September. Projections released at the June policy meeting showed most Fed officials expect to cut interest rates once or twice this year if inflation slows. Story continues Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
Suze Orman Puts 72-Year-Old Caller's Financial Advisor On Blast — 'Do Not Do This. Do Not Do This On Any Level' 2024-07-04 03:03:00+00:00 - During an episode of "Ask KT and Suze Anything," personal finance expert Suze Orman criticized a 72-year-old caller's financial advisor for bad advice about switching insurance policies. Here’s what happened during the podcast. Orman is a celebrated author and financial advisor known for her blunt but fair advice. During an episode of the "Ask KT and Suze Anything" podcast, which deals with all things money, Orman received a call from a 72-year-old woman named Judy, who has been retired for two years. Don't Miss: The average American couple has saved this much money for retirement — How do you compare ? Can you guess how many Americans successfully retire with $1,000,000 saved? The percentage may shock you. Judy revealed that she's doing OK financially and is paying her bills without problems. Just recently, she met with her financial advisor. Judy told her financial advisor that she had paid up her MetLife policy, valued at $16,000, with a death benefit of $26,000. Judy explained that she told her financial advisor that she had no long-term insurance. In response, her financial advisor told her she could trade in her policy with some additional money to help cover the cost of a long-term care policy. Judy told Orman she was confused about what to do because she had always thought the policy would be used for burial. Judy asked, "Is it better to have long-term care? I've never heard about insurance policy conversion before to long-term care." Judy wanted to know if these policies were legitimate. Orman answered Judy's question, "They're legit for a whole lot of money, Judy," and explained her thoughts on Judy's situation. Orman pointed out that doing one of these policy conversions is expensive. Orman asked Judy, "Did he (her financial advisor) tell you how much extra money? Did he tell you how much extra per month to keep it going?" Orman added, "The older you get, the more expensive a long-term care policy is because the average age of entry into a nursing home is 84." Because Judy wanted her current policy to be used for burial, Orman pointed out that this meant that Judy wouldn't have enough money saved elsewhere to pay for her burial if she changed the policy. Trending: Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." These high-yield real estate notes that pay 7.5% – 9% make earning passive income easier than ever. Another potential problem that Judy may run into when converting her MetLife policy to a long-term care insurance policy is that she could risk losing the premiums she's paid over the years. Policy conversion can sometimes come with hidden costs. Orman explained, "So normally, once you’re in your seventies, most people can’t even afford long-term care. And many of those policies today, and people know this who are listening to this, they are getting serious increases on their long-term care policies." Story continues So, what should she do? Orman told Judy that she should not follow her financial advisor's advice. Orman felt that Judy would most likely qualify for Medicaid if she went into a nursing home because she probably didn't have that much money, so she'd meet the qualifying criteria. Paying extra money monthly on a policy you won't need is pointless. Orman criticized Judy's financial advisor and told her, "Do not do this, do not do this. Do not do this on any level. Maybe in a different situation." Orman also gave Judy some additional advice and told her that if the facts were different, she should visit the "Women & Money" app to speak with Phyllis Shelton before making any final decisions about her policies. According to Orman, Shelton is an expert on long-term care insurance, and "Truthfully, I personally would never be buying a long-term care insurance policy unless I talked to Phyllis Shelton first." Read Next: How do billionaires pay less in income tax than you? Tax deferring is their number one strategy. Warren Buffett flipped his neighbor's $67,000 life savings into a $50 million fortune — How much is that worth today? "ACTIVE INVESTORS' SECRET WEAPON" Supercharge Your Stock Market Game with the #1 "news & everything else" trading tool: Benzinga Pro - Click here to start Your 14-Day Trial Now! Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? This article Suze Orman Puts 72-Year-Old Caller's Financial Advisor On Blast — 'Do Not Do This. Do Not Do This On Any Level' originally appeared on Benzinga.com © 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Anthony Fauci Backs Biden's Mental Capability Amid Rising Uncertainty Over 2024 Run: Trying To 'Diagnose Something' from A 90-minute Clip Is Unfair 2024-07-04 01:59:00+00:00 - Loading... Loading... Anthony Fauci, the former White House chief medical adviser, has expressed confidence in President Joe Biden‘s mental acuity, amid growing concerns within the Democratic party about his ability to lead. What Happened: In a recent interview, Fauci, who served as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) for almost four decades, vouched for Biden’s mental fitness, reported The Hill on Sunday. Fauci dismissed any medical conclusions drawn from a single event, such as a debate performance, and emphasized that he found Biden to be sharp and inquisitive in their interactions. When asked if he saw anything “medically alarming” in Biden’s debate performance, Fauci declined to comment. He said, “I think it would be unfair and inappropriate to try and diagnose something from just a 90-minute clip." See Also: Trump Win In 2024 Would Lead To ‘Stronger Growth And Higher Inflation,’ Expert Predicts Fed To Factor In Election Results In Rate Cut Plans These remarks come at a time when doubts have been raised about Biden’s ability to lead the Democratic party in the upcoming presidential election. Following a lackluster debate performance, Biden has reportedly been contemplating his future in the 2024 race. The President attributed his subpar debate performance to jet lag from his recent overseas trips. Why It Matters: Fauci’s endorsement of Biden’s mental fitness is significant in light of the ongoing debate about the President’s ability to lead the Democratic party. Earlier in June, Fauci blamed Trump’s staff for feeding him misinformation and fostering animosity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) accused him of committing "crimes against humanity" and promised to put every effort into prosecuting him. Photo Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons Read Next:
Wall Street on Alert for Biden Exit as Trump-Win Trades Mount 2024-07-04 01:53:00+00:00 - (Bloomberg) -- The red-hot Washington debate over whether President Joe Biden will scrap his run for re-election is spilling into Wall Street, where traders are shifting money to and from the dollar, Treasuries and other assets that would be impacted by Donald Trump’s return to office. Most Read from Bloomberg The recalibration of portfolios kicked off at the end of last week after Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump heightened concerns the 81-year-old Democrat is too old to serve another term. The trading action afterward was most acute in the bond market, where yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries jumped as much as 20 basis points across the following days. With speculation now mounting rapidly that Biden could drop out of the race — betting markets see less than a 50% chance he remains a candidate — investors are hastily making contingency plans to react to such an announcement during Thursday’s Fourth of July holiday and the subsequent weekend. One fund manager, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, said he was heading into the vacation stretch biased toward the dollar and short-term debt as hedges against the spike in risk he reckoned would be sparked by a Biden withdrawal. No president has opted against seeking a second term since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and the election is just four months away. “Markets have already been repricing election odds since the debate, so the news over the past 24 hours has really only added fuel to the fire,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York. The consensus among traders and strategists is a re-election of Trump, a 78-year-old Republican, would spur trades that benefit from an inflationary mix of looser fiscal policy and greater protectionism: A strong dollar, higher US bond yields and gains in bank, health and energy stocks. Even some 10,000 miles away, in Sydney, they’re bracing. Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank, said “everyone” is preparing trading plans in case Biden ends his campaign. “Either way, the market is betting on Trump winning the election,” said Catril. “It seems Democrats are stuck with very difficult choices, none of them easy, and none of them likely to yield a better outcome.” Story continues Here’s how the so-called Trump trade is materializing across markets: Dollar’s Signal The dollar gave one of the earliest signals as to how markets would adjust to a potential Trump victory, gaining in the hours after last week’s debate. While the greenback has gotten a boost this year from the Federal Reserve’s indications that it intends to keep interest rates for higher longer, the currency got a clear bump in real-time as Trump dominated the faceoff with Biden. “A Trump victory raises the prospect of higher inflation and a stronger dollar, given his promise of more tariffs, and a tougher stance on immigration,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Joyce Chang. Potential losers in the face of a rising dollar and Trump’s expected support for tariffs include the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan. Yield-Curve Trade In the aftermath of the debate, money managers in the $27 trillion Treasury market reacted by buying shorter-maturity notes and selling longer-term ones — a wager known as a steepener trade. A slew of Wall Street strategists have touted the strategy, including Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc, urging clients to prepare for sticky inflation and higher long-maturity yields in another Trump term. In a two-day span starting late last week, 10-year yields rose by about 13 basis points relative to 2-year rates, in the sharpest curve steepening since October. Signs of traders bracing for near-term volatility in the Treasury market emerged Wednesday, through a buyer of a so-called strangle structure, which benefits from a move higher or lower in futures through the strike prices. Along with potential risk over the holiday weekend around Biden’s candidacy, the expiry also incorporates Friday’s US jobs data and testimony next week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Stocks Gain The prospect of a Trump victory has supported myriad stocks that stand to benefit from his perceived stances on the regulatory environment, mergers and trade relations. The broad market has powered higher in the wake of the debate. The turn in the electoral tide since last week has “meant higher stocks as Republicans are generally viewed as more business friendly,” said Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report. Health insurers UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Humana Inc. and banks stand to benefit from looser regulations. Discover Financial Services and Capital One Financial Corp. are among credit card companies that have risen on optimism over Trump, given that pair’s pending deal and speculation around possible changes to late fee rules. Energy stocks like Occidental Petroleum Corp. rose after the debate, given the former president is seen as having a pro-oil stance. Private prison stocks like GEO Group Inc. have reacted to his perceived tough-on-immigration views. Financials ETFs The exchange-traded fund market has shown one clear investing strategy of late: Long banks on bets that Trump will spur deregulation and a steeper Treasury curve thanks to his potentially inflationary agenda. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ticker XLF), a $40 billion fund, last week saw its largest inflow in more than two months, with investors adding roughly $540 million. So far this week, they’ve added $611 million amid the latest gyrations in the interest-rate market. Meanwhile, a thematic-investing strategy designed to ride the Trump trade has struggled to gain traction. An ETF that sports the eye-catching ticker MAGA and invests in Republican-friendly stocks has been slow to garner assets and hasn’t seen any material inflows this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Crypto Support Trump has shown support for the crypto industry in recent weeks by meeting with industry executives and promising he would ensure all future Bitcoin mining is done in the US. That makes the Solana token — the fifth-largest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of about $67 billion, according to CoinMarketCap — one potential beneficiary of a Trump return to the White House. Asset managers VanEck and 21Shares have filed for ETFs that would directly invest in the digital currency. While many consider approval a long shot, the thinking among some market participants is that a newly re-elected Trump would appoint a Securities and Exchange Commission chair who is more crypto-friendly than Gary Gensler has been under Biden. That’s an outcome that would make a Solana ETF — and a corresponding rally in the token — more likely. The prospect of a shakeup to the Democratic ticket is also likely to boost Bitcoin, according to Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial. “The crazier that the US political system looks, the better that Bitcoin looks,” Ouellette said “This is the kind of vibe that Bitcoin would go for. Craziness in the US political system is a pro-Bitcoin factor.” --With assistance from Katie Greifeld, Edward Bolingbroke, Anya Andrianova, Jan-Patrick Barnert, Natalia Kniazhevich, Ruth Carson, Bre Bradham, Nazmul Ahasan, Carter Johnson, Vildana Hajric, Liz Capo McCormick, Ye Xie and Emily Nicolle. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Huang Cashes In on Nvidia’s Rally With $169 Million Share Sale 2024-07-04 01:48:00+00:00 - (Bloomberg) — Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang unloaded shares worth nearly $169 million in June, the most he’s netted in a single month, as insatiable demand for the chips used to power artificial intelligence drove the stock to fresh peaks. Most Read from Bloomberg The sale of 1.3 million shares, his first of the year, came during a month when Nvidia’s market value rose above $3 trillion for the first time. That briefly made it the world’s most valuable company and pushed Huang, 61, into the rarefied group of ultra-rich with fortunes above $100 billion. The series of transactions were executed under a 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in March, according to the filings. Nvidia declined to comment. Nvidia’s dominant share of the market for high-end accelerators has made it one of the the biggest beneficiaries of the AI craze. Due to the stock’s more than 150% gain since the start of the year, Huang’s net worth has more than doubled — rising $63.7 billion — in the last six months. The co-founder of the company is now ranked 13th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index with a $107.7 billion fortune. He’s not the only insider selling. Company executives and directors unloaded more than $700 million of shares in the first half of this year, a dollar amount that dwarfs any other period in company history. Another beneficiary of Nvidia’s stock surge has been Huang’s personal foundation. The Jen-Hsun & Lori Huang Foundation is sitting on an estimated war chest of more than $8 billion based on the 69 million shares it held at the end of 2022, according to its most recent tax filings. So far, most of Huang’s personal giving has been to a donor-advised fund run by Schwab Charitable. Huang has cashed out nearly $1.1 billion in shares since the start of 2020, including June’s sales. Additional filings show that he plans to continue selling in July. —With assistance from Jack Witzig. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Kamala Harris Reportedly Emerges As Top Choice To Replace The President In 2024 Election — Biden Says, 'I Am Running' 2024-07-04 01:48:00+00:00 - Loading... Loading... After a lackluster debate performance by President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the leading alternative to replace him in the 2024 election, according to a Reuters report. What Happened: A recent report by Reuters, citing seven senior sources within the Democratic party, the White House, and the Democratic National Committee, suggests that Harris is the top choice to replace Biden if he decides not to continue his reelection campaign. The report highlights concerns within the Democratic party over Biden’s fitness for a second term following his widely criticized debate performance against Republican rival Donald Trump. This has prompted discussions about potential alternatives, with Harris emerging as the most likely candidate. Despite some influential Democrats considering other alternatives, the sources believe that bypassing Harris would be nearly impossible. If named as the party nominee, Harris, 59, would inherit the funds and infrastructure of the Biden campaign. Additionally, Harris has the highest name recognition and polling among the potential Democratic candidates. She has also been vetted for national office and has survived intense scrutiny from Republicans. On a call with campaign staff, President Joe Biden reaffirmed his intention to remain in the 2024 presidential race, despite concerns over his debate performance. He stated, “I am running,” emphasizing his role as the Democratic Party leader, according to a separate Reuters report. See Also: Bill Ackman Says He No Longer Blames Biden For Not Stepping Aside: ‘Increasingly Clear That The Fault Lies With… Jill Biden’ Why It Matters: The report comes in the wake of a lackluster debate performance by Biden, which has led to concerns about his ability to continue his candidacy for the 2024 election. A recent Ipsos poll also revealed that a majority of voters believe Biden should withdraw from the race, with less than half suggesting the same for Trump. It was reported earlier that some Democrats are encouraging Biden to step aside and see former first lady Michelle Obama as the most viable candidate against Trump. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock Read Next:
LL Flooring Mulls Bankruptcy Filing as Home Renovations Slow 2024-07-04 01:43:00+00:00 - (Bloomberg) -- LL Flooring Holdings Inc. is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named discussing private deliberations. Most Read from Bloomberg The flooring retailer, formerly known as Lumber Liquidators, has struggled as higher interest rates curtail home renovation activity. Filing for bankruptcy could help it cope with dwindling access to cash and slumping sales. LL Flooring may seek protection from creditors in the coming weeks, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The plans aren’t final and could change. LL Flooring shares fell as much as 31% to about 92 cents after Bloomberg reported the potential bankruptcy filing. Company adviser Houlihan Lokey Inc. has been reaching out to potential investors about a deal to inject fresh capital into the company, Bloomberg previously reported. LL Flooring has been trying to sell a distribution center in Virginia in order to bolster its cash reserves, regulatory filings show. The company said last week it may violate a minimum liquidity rule under its asset-backed credit agreement as soon as the third quarter. LL Flooring is talking with its banks about modifying the credit agreement, it said. A representative for LL Flooring declined to comment, as did a representative with AlixPartners, which is advising the company on its operations. In the first three months of the year, the company saw its net sales drop 21.7% to $188.5 million compared to a year earlier. It cited a “difficult macroeconomic environment” and “brand awareness challenges” for its woes. LL Flooring has more than 400 locations. It changed its name from Lumber Liquidators in 2020 after it was forced to pay $33 million a year earlier to settle securities fraud allegations. (Adds share move in fourth paragraph.) Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Trump is already pushing interest rates up 2024-07-04 01:38:00+00:00 - Financial markets don’t usually start to price in possible election outcomes until a month or two before Election Day. Investors are getting an early start this year. Since June 27, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury securities has jumped by about 10 basis points, or one-tenth of a percentage point. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s a reversal of the downward trend that has taken hold in recent weeks as inflation data has come in very mild and stoked hopes of interest rate cuts. Around June 27, something seems to have changed investors’ interest rate outlook. Hmm, what might that have been? Oh right! June 27 was the date of the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, during which Biden bombed and didn’t even look coherent at times. Biden’s performance was so disconcerting that it rapidly changed the election outlook. Trump’s odds of winning rose, but more importantly for markets, the odds of Trump winning and Republicans gaining control of both houses of Congress also rose. Markets care about that because a president can’t implement his full agenda unless a friendly Congress is able to pass the legislation he supports. “This is all about bond investors beginning to price in the possibility that not only will Donald Trump emerge victorious but that the GOP will take the House and Senate too,” economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research wrote in a July 3 analysis. “Investors are sniffing something out here, which is GOP control of Congress.” As a real estate developer who once called himself the “king of debt,” Trump favors the lowest rates possible. But Wall Street thinks Trump’s policies in a second term would be more likely to push rates up than down. Read more: How much control does the president have over the Fed and interest rates? Going up? Wall Street thinks Trump’s policies in a second term would be more likely to push rates up than down. (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images) (Clive Mason via Getty Images) There are a couple of reasons for that. First, Trump wants to impose new tariffs on imports, which would raise prices on thousands of everyday items, which is basically inflationary. This would come at a time when built-in inflationary pressures, such as tight global energy markets and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, are much stronger than when Trump was president from 2017 to 2021. Drop Rick Newman a note, follow him on Twitter, or sign up for his newsletter. In 2022, the Federal Reserve began rapidly raising short-term rates to combat inflation that peaked at 9% that year. The Fed stopped raising rates last summer, and inflation is now 3.3%. Recent data suggests that if nothing changes, inflation should continue to decline and the Fed might be able to start gradually cutting interest rates by the fall, which would benefit home and car buyers and many other borrowers. Story continues But Trumpflation, if it develops, could put a halt to those rate cuts. The Fed could postpone rate cuts even on the prospect that Trump might win in November — especially if markets are signaling that that’s the expected outcome. And if Trumpflation actually materialized, the Fed might have to raise rates rather than cut. Trump also wants to cut the corporate tax rate by another percentage point and extend individual tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of 2025. Such moves would force the Treasury to borrow much more than current forecasts, pushing record-high federal deficits even higher. There have already been some disconcerting blips in Treasury auctions in recent months because of the sheer volume of federal debt on the market. Issuing even more could trigger the debt crisis many analysts have been expecting for years. That will happen if/when there aren’t enough buyers for all the debt Uncle Sam is issuing, which will force rates up in order to attract buyers. When Treasury rates rise, all borrowing rates rise in tandem. The recent rise in the 10-year rate following the June 27 debate was even more stark until Fed Chair Jerome Powell made optimistic remarks about the outlook for inflation on July 2. That brought long-term rates down a bit and reignited hopes for a rate cut in September. But there’s still a Trump premium on rates. The total run-up before Powell spoke was about 20 basis points, or two-tenths of a point. So it’s fair to consider that markets, for now, are pushing long-term rates two-tenths of a point higher than they would otherwise be based on the odds of a Republican sweep. If Trump did win, and rates rose the way investors seem to expect, it would likely put Trump on wartime footing from Day One. Trump has a long history of bashing the Fed and its chair, Powell, for not pushing rates lower. During Trump’s first term, he could argue that there was little risk of inflation, so why not lower rates? Inflationary pressures are much stronger now, and that won’t change if Biden leaves office, since much of the pressure comes from outside the United States. If Trump managed to jawbone the Fed into lowering rates anyway, the result would most likely be higher inflation — and the same ire from voters that has driven Biden’s popularity underwater. Voters may not see that until 2025, but it’s already a big blip on the market’s radar. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. 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