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Believe it or not, consumer sentiment is improving 2023-07-30 - A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co Stocks climbed last week with the S&P 500 rising 1.0% to close at 4,582.23. The index is now up 19.3% year to date, up 28.1% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03, and down 4.5% from its January 3, 2022 record closing high of 4,796.56. The market rallied as we were reminded not to underestimate the American consumer. On Friday, the BEA reported that personal consumption expenditures growth accelerated in June, rising to a record annualized rate of $18.4 trillion. This matters because consumer spending is the dominant driver of the U.S. economy, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for 68% of GDP. However, consumer behavior can be complex and nuanced. For most of the past two years, measures of consumer sentiment have been in the dumps — largely due to inflation manifesting clearly in the rising prices of goods and services. Yet consumer spending growth has persisted. The explanation: Consumer finances have been in remarkably good shape thanks to a combination of excess savings and relatively low debt levels. Meanwhile, more consumers have been getting jobs, which means more consumers have been making money. If people have money, they’ll spend it. But no economic or market narrative goes unchanged forever. The consumer tailwinds mentioned above have been showing signs of fading. The consumer narrative is shifting in a fascinating way In recent months, we’ve been watching excess savings shrink, consumer debt levels begin to normalize (i.e, rise from unusually low levels), and job growth cool. These are developments that might not lead you to assume that consumer sentiment would be improving. But believe it or not, consumer sentiment is improving. On Friday, we learned the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment in July rose to its highest levels since October 2021. On Tuesday, we learned the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in July jumped to its highest level since July 2021. Story continues Notably, the Conference Board’s survey also found more consumers are saying their financial situation is good and fewer are saying it’s bad. Fortunately, what we’re witnessing isn’t total madness among consumers. While some key metrics of financial health have deteriorated in recent months, others have been improving. Incomes are outpacing inflation As Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta has been highlighting for months, real income growth has been positive (i.e., consumers’ wage growth is outpacing inflation). According to BEA data released Friday, real personal income excluding transfer receipts (e.g. Social Security benefits, unemployment insurance benefits, and welfare payments) rose to a record high in June and has been trending higher since December. This has as much to do with wages rising as it does with inflation cooling. Earlier this month, we learned the consumer price index in July was up just 3% from a year ago, the lowest print since March 2021. Among the biggest forces bringing down inflation were energy prices, which were down 16.7% from year-ago levels. Gasoline prices are way down after a brutal 2022. While policymakers tend to focus on "core" measures of inflation (which exclude volatile components like food and energy prices), headline measures of inflation can have a huge impact on sentiment as they include the prices of goods consumers confront very regularly. "It is a good thing headline inflation has gone down a bit," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday (h/t Myles Udland). "I would say that having headline inflation move down that much... will strengthen the broad sense that the public has that inflation is coming down, which will, in turn, we hope, help inflation continue to move down." And even though job growth has been cooling, there continue to be a lot of signs that the demand for labor remains robust. This was recently confirmed in The Conference Board’s July survey, which showed that "46.9% of consumers said jobs were ‘plentiful,’ up from 45.4%. 9.7% of consumers said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ much lower than 12.6% last month." "Overall, the sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets," University of Michigan’s Joanne Hsu said. The Conference Board noted: "Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market." On the matter of rising interest rates, it’s worth remembering that the share of household debt with an adjustable interest rate is low by historical standards. What to watch Metrics like excess savings, consumer debt, and debt delinquencies have moved unfavorably in recent months. But none of these developments are signaling that a recession is around the corner. The metrics have only eased from their hottest levels. But will spending hold up? This will be the key dynamic to watch in the coming months. It’s great that consumer sentiment is on the mend. And it’s even better that real incomes are on the rise. And generally speaking, consumer finances remain very healthy. As Federal Reserve data shows, household debt service payments remain historically low relative to disposable income. In addition to resilient measures of consumer spending at the aggregate level, anecdotes suggest discretionary spending remains very strong: Royal Caribbean says cruise bookings are surging, Bank of America says Barbie and Oppenheimer have people out and about, and even the Federal Reserve says Taylor Swift concerts are fueling local tourism. And like consumer behavior, the dynamics of the economy are complex and nuanced. Just because some key metrics are deteriorating doesn’t mean the economy is going down. There may be other metrics offsetting these headwinds. You just have to be vigilant and open to the possibility that big narratives can change. Reviewing the macro crosscurrents There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider: The Fed hikes rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy further by raising its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% From the Fed’s monetary policy statement: "In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective." "I would say what our eyes are telling us is policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough to have its full desired effects," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference. In other words, while inflation rates have cooled significantly in recent months, they remain above target levels. And so the Fed will keep monetary policy tight for a little while. Inflation is cooling. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in June was up 3.0% from a year ago, down from the 3.8% increase in May. The core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — was up 4.1% during the month after coming in at 4.6% higher in the prior month. On a month over month basis, the core PCE price index was up 0.2%. If you annualized the rolling three-month and six-month figures, the core PCE price index was up 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively. The bottom line is that while inflation rates have been trending lower, they continue to be above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. Labor costs are cooling. The employment cost index in the second quarter was up 4.5% from the prior year, down from 4.9% in the first quarter. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, it was up 1.0% in the second quarter, a deceleration from the 1.2% gain in the first quarter. From Wells Fargo: "The details of the ECI report are consistent with a labor market that is still tight but is gradually cooling from the scorching heat experienced last year. Compensation growth appears to have turned a corner as labor supply and demand come into better balance." Unemployment claims tick down. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 221,000 during the week ending July 22, down from 228,000 the week prior. While this is up from the September low of 182,000, it continues to trend at levels associated with economic growth. The U.S. economy grew. U.S. GDP grew at a healthy 2.4% rate in Q2, according to the BEA’s advance estimate (via Notes). During the period, personal consumption increased at a 1.6% clip. Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth climbing at a 3.5% rate in Q3. Most U.S. states are still growing. From the Philly Fed’s State Coincident Indexes report: "Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in two states, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 82." They’re building a lot of factories. From Bloomberg: "Business investment in manufacturing facilities surged to the highest level in records that go back to the late 1950s, according to data published Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending on factory construction has almost doubled in the past year, after the Biden administration passed laws that provide hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and other support for industries like clean energy and semiconductors." Business survey signals cooling. From S&P Global’s July Flash U.S. PMI (via Notes): "July is seeing an unwelcome combination of slower economic growth, weaker job creation, gloomier business confidence and sticky inflation. The overall rate of output growth, measured across manufacturing and services, is consistent with GDP expanding at an annualized quarterly rate of approximately 1.5% at the start of the third quarter. That's down from a 2% pace signaled by the survey in the second quarter." Keep in mind that during times of stress, soft data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data. New home sales jump. Sales of newly built homes (via Notes) fell 2.5% in June to an annualized rate of 697,000 units. Home prices rise. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index (via Notes), home prices rose 1.2% month-over-month in May. From SPDJI’s Craig Lazzara: "Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023. Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months." Consumer confidence is up. From The Conference Board’s July Consumer Confidence report (via Notes): "Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations… Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000." Labor market confidence improves. From The Conference Board: "46.9% of consumers said jobs were ‘plentiful,’ up from 45.4%. 9.7% of consumers said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ much lower than 12.6% last month." From The Conference Board’s Dana Peterson: "Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ versus ‘hard to get’ widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform." Consumer spending rises. According to BEA data (via Notes), personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% month over month in June to a record annual rate of $18.4 trillion. Card spending growth is positive. From JPMorgan Chase: "As of 23 Jul 2023, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 2.9% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 23 Jul 2023, our estimate of the US Census July control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.46%." Putting it all together We continue to get evidence that we could see a bullish "Goldilocks" soft landing scenario where inflation cools to manageable levels without the economy having to sink into recession. The Federal Reserve recently adopted a less hawkish tone, acknowledging on February 1 that "for the first time that the disinflationary process has started." At its June 14 policy meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, ending a streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes. While the central bank lifted rates again on July 26, most economists agree that the final rate hike is near. In any case, inflation still has to come down more before the Fed is comfortable with price levels. So we should expect the central bank to keep monetary policy tight, which means we should be prepared for tight financial conditions (e.g. higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All of this means monetary policy will be unfriendly to markets for the time being, and the risk the economy sinks into a recession will be relatively elevated. At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms, meaning that prices will have bottomed before the Fed signals a major dovish turn in monetary policy. Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, consumers are coming from a very strong financial position. Unemployed people are getting jobs. Those with jobs are getting raises. And many still have excess savings to tap into. Indeed, strong spending data confirms this financial resilience. So it’s too early to sound the alarm from a consumption perspective. At this point, any downturn is unlikely to turn into economic calamity given that the financial health of consumers and businesses remains very strong. And as always, long-term investors should remember that recessions and bear markets are just part of the deal when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While markets have had a pretty rough couple of years, the long-run outlook for stocks remains positive. A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

Peter Thiel paid staff an extra $1,000 a month if they lived close to the office so they were more likely to work late, book says 2023-07-30 - Peter Thiel liked workers to live close to the office, a book says. Marco Bello/Getty Images Peter Thiel paid staff an extra $1,000 a month if they lived near the office, a former worker said. The billionaire investor offered it so staff "were more likely to stay late," Michael Gibson wrote. Gibson made the claim in his book "Paper Belt on Fire: The Fight for Progress in an Age of Ashes." Peter Thiel offered his staff a monthly bonus of $1,000 if they lived close to the office, according to a former employee of the billionaire investor. Michael Gibson, a VC investor who worked for Thiel for five years, said in his book "Paper Belt on Fire: The Fight for Progress in an Age of Ashes" that Thiel "lived about 400 yards from the office" in San Francisco and encouraged his employees to live locally too. Thiel gave workers the bonus so "they were more likely to stay late" and could be around for "a surprise meeting on the weekends," Gibson wrote. "Employees were granted an extra $1,000 per month in rent if they lived within a half-mile radius of the office," per the title, published by Encounter Books last year. "It had the added effect that we would all show up to the same watering holes after work to knock off a few drinks and gossip, tell war stories, argue over the jukebox, and have a few laughs. As far as employee benefits go, I always thought this was a wise one." Gibson co-founded the venture capital fund 1517, which aims to back college dropouts and those who did not study at university. Similar subsidy schemes were in place at the software company Palantir Technologies, which Thiel co-founded, as well as at Salesforce subsidiary SalesforceIQ, according to reporting by The Guardian. Thiel is in 217th place on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index with a net worth of $10 billion. Meta also had deep pockets when it came to offering workers incentives to live near its office. It historically paid "at least $10,000" to Facebook staff if they lived within 10 miles of its headquarters in Menlo Park, Silicon Valley, per The Guardian. It also offered employees with families a one-off payment of at least $15,000 for housing. Story continues While some companies are bringing back such relocation benefits schemes in a bid to get workers to return to the office after the pandemic, others are taking a different approach . Law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell told its employees that their bonuses could be cut if they're not in the office three days a week, The Wall Street Journal reported. Recent data from ZipRecruiter showed there were 3.8 million job listings that refer to relocation assistance, up from 2 million posts that mentioned the term in 2020, the Journal reported in April. ARC Relocation, a firm that helps companies relocate workers, told Insider's Aaron Mok that it's seen a "significant rise" in business since companies started to enforce return-to-office policies. Thiel and Meta didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider, made outside normal working hours. Read the original article on Business Insider

Will I Earn Enough Interest on $2 Million to Retire Off Of? 2023-07-30 - SmartAsset: How Much Interest Does $2 Million Pay Monthly? For older Americans, living off the interest and returns of your retirement account is how retirement is structured. The goal is that by the time you hit your late 60s you will ideally have enough saved up to coast indefinitely. For younger Americans, the goal is to build up enough of a nest egg to retire early. But building up that kind of nest egg isn’t easy. And when thinking about how much money you will need to get there, you may be asking: Is $2 million enough? And, can you live off the returns of a $2 million account? The answer is yes, if you’re smart about it. Here’s what you need to know. A financial expert could help you create a financial plan for your retirement needs and goals. How to Live Off Interest The first thing to understand is how you live off interest. When we talk about living off of interest payments, we’re referring to what’s called “passive income.” This means that your various assets generate enough money on their own to provide your monthly income. You don’t have supplemental income or other work (beyond portfolio management) that adds to either your portfolio or your monthly budget. Ideally, you also don’t draw down on the core principal. You can do so, of course. For example, someone who took $75,000 per year out of a $2 million account could coast for more than 25 years before the account ran dry. But when we talk about living on the interest, we’re trying to decide if you can live indefinitely. This means that you don’t touch the principal, only the interest and returns. Step One: How Much Money Do You need? To figure out if you can live off the interest of an account, the first step is understanding your own expenses. To put it another way, first you need to know how much money you’ll need each month. Then you can figure out what kind of savings can get you there. Living off the interest of your savings is an excellent goal, and many younger Americans increasingly target it. The best way to start on this project is to focus on debt. Nothing will erode your ability to out-earn your expenses faster than the fixed monthly overhead of a credit card, student loans or other forms of interest-bearing loans. Pay off those as quickly as you can and this project will be much easier. Story continues When you do this math, it’s important to balance your needs and wants. First, how much money do you absolutely need per month? Do you have fixed expenses, like medical costs or other bills that can’t go away? Do you support anyone? Then, take a realistic look at your lifestyle. What you want to do here is balance two competing needs: On the one hand, the more lavish your lifestyle the higher your bills, and the more money you’ll need before a portfolio can generate those returns. On the other hand, the point here is to be happy. Set a target lifestyle that lets you have the things you want in life, otherwise you’ll be both more miserable and more likely to blow your budget. Take a whole-picture view of your finances, and be realistic about what you want and need. Social Security provides a stable source of income for elderly Americans and is a fantastic supplement to just about any retirement plan. The average retiree collects about $1,650 per month from this program. We will not include it in this article, since it skews our answer of whether anyone can live on just $2 million in savings. But if you’re looking toward retirement, definitely don’t forget to include that income in your budget. Can $2 Million Get This Done? SmartAsset: How Much Interest Does $2 Million Pay Monthly? If you have $2 million saved up, what kind of budget can you live on? The answer to this question depends entirely on how you have this money invested. Investment options for your money range from something as basic as a savings account to options like stocks, bonds and other assets. The key question is reliability and security. The more money an investment returns, the greater the risk of loss as well or at least volatility. If you’re looking to live off the interest of an account you need a balance: The investment needs to be secure enough to minimize your risk of loss, otherwise you’ll be left without the money you need to live; The investment needs to be relatively stable, so that you can generally know what to expect each year or over time; The investment also needs grow enough to generate real income, otherwise you won’t have any meaningful returns off of which to live. While there are a lot of different options out there, here are four of the best choices for stable, long-term income investing: High-Yield Savings Account, 0.60%: $12,000 Income per year. A high-yield savings account is literally just a savings account at the bank, but since you’ve deposited a lot of money they increase your interest rate. While numbers vary, on average you can expect to find interest rates around 0.60 percent. This isn’t a great option for generating income, but it’s about as rock-solid as you can get in terms of reliability. One-Year Treasury Bills, 1.72%: $34,000 Income per year. Government bonds and bills offer a wide variety of options. Their interest rates change based on monetary policy decisions, but at time of writing a 12-month Treasury Bill offered 1.72% in interest. This is the safest place in the world for your money, although the returns tend to be low and that interest rate can change. Certificates of Deposit, 1.2%: $24,000 per year. When you buy a certificate of deposit, the bank holds your money for a defined period, meaning you can’t withdraw it, but in return they pay you an elevated interest rate. With a good bank you should be able to get rates around 1.2%. Like a savings account this is about as good as you can get in terms of reliability, although even the elevated rate of a CD is fairly low and you can’t access your principal if there was an emergency. S&P 500 Index Funds, 10%: $200,000 per year. Over the past several decades, mutual funds and ETFs indexed to the S&P 500 have returned an average of between 10% and 14% per year. Unlike the other options we’ve considered here, index funds come with real risk. With a bank product (like a savings account or a CD) or Treasury debt, you get an extremely high degree of confidence in both your return and your principal. The stock market is much less predictable. It fluctuates, with some years dramatically exceeding the average and other years posting a loss. Still, an index fund is also the most stable higher-yield option we can recommend. Why You Probably Can Live Off $2 Million SmartAsset: How Much Interest Does $2 Million Pay Monthly? Some particularly budget-conscious households might be able to live off the return of Treasury debt at $34,000 per year. Though this is a small amount of money relative to your likely future needs. And even if you can pay your bills, it will almost certainly leave no room for error. An index fund, however, could offer you an alternative to do this. The good news about an index fund is the simple numbers involved. At $200,000 per year in average returns, this is more than enough for all but the highest spenders to live comfortably. You can collect your returns, pay your capital gains taxes and have plenty left over for a comfortable lifestyle. The bad news about an index fund is the variability. Over time major indices like the S&P 500 return to their averages. In any given year, though, returns will vary. For example, between 2012 and 2022 alone the S&P 500 posted annual returns of 29.6% (2013), -6.24% (2018) and 26.89% (2021). In between returns of nearly triple the average, the market also spent a year losing almost an entire year’s average gains. What this means is that over time the markets can be reliable enough to count on, but you still need to plan ahead. If you want to live off an index fund, you cannot live paycheck to paycheck. Your budget has to include setting aside cash in one of the safe options like a certificate of deposit or Treasury debt. That safety net needs to be large enough to let you live for a year or more of weak returns, and even to replace capital that your account lost if need be. With $2 million in hand, that is an entirely achievable goal. For example, you could easily set a household budget of $100,000 per year (again a very comfortable amount of money). You could take the other half of your annual returns and use them to pay taxes and build up this preventative war chest. Once this bank of solid savings has several hundred thousand dollars in it, enough to compensate for multiple years of lost earnings, you can reduce your contributions or begin rolling any excess returns back into your index fund. Bottom Line Can you live off of $2 million in assets? The answer is yes, if you manage your investment portfolio smartly. One common option is to invest $2 million in an index fund. But you will still need to make absolutely sure that you have a rainy day fund since the market can be reliable over decades but fickle over years. Tips to Help You Save for Retirement According to the Federal Reserve, 60% of those with self-directed retirement accounts are not confident about their investment decisions. If you’re one of them, why not hire a financial advisor? SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Counting on Social Security benefits alone likely won’t provide full support for your current lifestyle. But, benefits can definitely help with your living expenses in retirement. SmartAsset’s Social Security calculator will help you estimate how much of a benefit you can expect. And, if you want to figure out whether you are saving enough for retirement, SmartAsset’s free retirement calculator can help you determine how much you will need. Photo credit: ©iStock.com/IPGGutenbergUKLtd, ©iStock.com/AlexRaths, ©iStock.com/Drazen_ The post How Much Interest Does $2 Million Pay Monthly? appeared first on SmartAsset Blog.

The great Rolex recession is here: How the Fed crushed the luxury watch boom 2023-07-30 - Rolex The secondary market for luxury watches has sunk to its lowest level in over two years. The WatchCharts market index and has slumped 32% from an all-time high in March last year. Elevated interest rates and heightened economic uncertainties are seen as sapping demand for luxury timepieces. Since late 2022, Wall Street has been rife with predictions for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases to wreak havoc in the US economy and stock market. But while the broader economy has held up surprisingly well, the monetary blitzkrieg has sparked a downturn of a different kind – a rout in the secondary market for luxury watches. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index - which tracks the prices of 60 timepieces from top brands including Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet - has plunged 32% from a March 2022 peak. A separate index for just Rolex models fell 27% over a similar period. The US central bank's aggressive monetary tightening over the past five quarters is seen as a key reason for the slump in watch prices. Higher interest rates have fueled fears of an economic downturn, spurring investors to scale back luxury spending and boost savings. The downturn in the crypto market, also precipitated by rate rises, has also hurt demand for watches. The costliest timepieces have suffered the worst declines. Those in the $50,001-$100,000 price bracket slumped over 15% in the past 12 months, while the $10,001-$20,000 group fell 10.4%, according to WatchCharts data. The $5,001-$10,000 band saw a 6.8% drop. Luxury watches have underperformed stocks since March 2022, when the Fed started raising interest rates. The S&P 500 index of US large-cap shares is up by about 8% since then. Certain chronometer brands have felt the bite more than others. The Rolex Market Index, which tracks the top 30 most valuable models, is down 12.5% from a year ago, while the Patek Philippe index lost 18%. However, Audemars Piguet saw the sharpest losses, down almost 20% year-on-year, WatchCharts data show. Story continues When the 'everything rally' was in full swing during the pandemic period, luxury watches were no exception. Surplus cash was piling into all kinds of alternative investments – such as NFTs and meme stocks – opulent timepieces were also swept along with the tide. Prices of Rolexes, Patek Philippes, and Piguets reached record highs in early 2022. Preowned watch sales reached $22 billion in 2021 – nearly a third of the $75 billion luxury watch market, according to a report from Boston Consulting Group. Despite the declines over the past year, prices have climbed considerably higher over the longer term, outperforming the stock market. The Rolex index is up by more than 55% from five years ago. "Luxury watches have performed well, especially over the long term, in comparison with traditional investment categories. From August 2018 to January 2023, average prices in the secondhand market for top models from the three largest luxury brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—rose at an annual rate of 20%, despite broader market downturns during the pandemic, compared with an annual rate of 8% for the S&P 500 index," BCG said in a report published earlier this year. Read the original article on Business Insider

This could be the right time to buy these 'growth at a reasonable price' standouts, BMO says 2023-07-30 - After the artificial intelligence craze helped fuel a comeback rally for stocks in the first half of the year, investors should consider shifting their attention toward a long-term strategy, according to BMO Capital Markets. Chief investment strategist Brian Belski said in a July 26 note to clients that "growth at a reasonable price" stocks should be key holdings of the riskier portion of an investment portfolio. The so-called "GARP" stocks tend to have characteristics of both growth and value factors. "We have found through our work that GARP strategies tend to perform much better over longer periods than singularly focused growth or value strategies," Belski wrote. BMO defines "GARP" stocks as those with forward-looking price-to-earnings and price-to-earnings-growth ratios below the median of the S & P 500, while projected earnings growth is greater than the median S & P 500 value. As optimism about the U.S. economy has improved, the gap between earnings growth expectations for GARP companies and the broader market has shrunk. But that could mean that this is a good entry point for the group, which has struggled so far in 2023. "Even with the slight deterioration in relative earnings growth, the [next 12 months] PEG ratio has declined sharply and is only slightly above a historically low level ... which to us suggests a quite favorable backdrop for GARP stocks," Belski wrote. BMO's list of stocks that fit the GARP profile and have outperform ratings from the firm's analysts have had varying degrees of success so far this year. They also cut across sector groups. The group includes some stocks that haven't kept up with their peers in 2023. DXC Technology shares are up 4.5% for the year, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) is up more than 40%. Meanwhile, PayPal 's year-to-date gains of about 3.9% are slightly ahead of the broader financial sector, but investors who still view it as a technology stock are likely underwhelmed with that performance. Oil stock SLB , formerly Schlumberger, has been a standout in its sector but is also up less than 7%. The company is well liked by Wall Street, as about 90% of analysts have a buy or a strong buy rating on the stock, according to Refinitiv. Insurance stock Travelers is actually down more than 7% for the year. Unlike with SLB, Wall Street is generally cool on Travelers, with the majority of analysts assigning hold ratings to the stock, according to Refinitiv. - CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Blind and other anonymous forums are 'places of pure misery,' says Redfin's CEO – but also let workers 'speak truth to power' 2023-07-30 - The CEO of real estate brokerage Redfin said anonymous forums are "places of pure misery." Glenn Kelman told The Information they're also "the only way to speak truth to power." Blind cofounder Kyum Kim said anonymity helps employees "talk honestly about work." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Loading Something is loading. Thanks for signing up! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy The CEO of real estate brokerage Redfin labelled anonymous forums such as Blind "places of pure misery." Glenn Kelman told The Information that he's "too old" and "self-important" to use the workplace platform, but acknowledged that it gave employees a way to "speak truth to power." Blind is a forum where users can anonymously post company reviews but must register with their work email address. It also functions as a messaging service where users can communicate privately or join group chats with employees at affiliated companies and also offers a public channel. It's been popular among tech workers at companies such as Meta, Twitter and Amazon. Blind counts about 135,000 Microsoft staff, or 60% of its staff, as users, with 80,000 at Google (43%), and 70,000 at Meta (more than 90%), The Information reported. "Anonymity lets us slander one another without consequences, but it's also the only way to speak truth to power," Kelman said. Blind cofounder and chief business officer Kyum Kim told Insider that when the five founders worked at Korean tech company Naver, they found they couldn't "really have transparent work discussions." Kim said there's silos between different divisions of big organizations and many layers of hierarchy, which can result in a "culture of hesitation" that prevents necessary discussions. "That led us to think there's a need for a third-party forum where people have the freedom to talk honestly about work," Kim said. It allows workers to vent their frustrations without fear of any repercussions, he added. However, it seems that not all companies are happy with their workers posting on the platform. A user said in November that Meta's chief technology officer, Andrew Bosworth, was discouraging employees from writing about it on Blind. "Our CTO went off on a rant talking about how bad blind is for your mental health. But in like just a couple minutes he addressed so many of the discussions in the last 2 weeks," one person posted on Blind. Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth. Christian Charisius/Getty Images The Blind team launched the app in Korea in 2013 and two years moved to California. However, they failed to gain traction and by mid-2015 they moved to Seattle to tap into its tech ecosystem. "We decided to go to Seattle, where it had a lot of Amazon employees, to find out what people are really going through," Kim said. "I was living there for six months and met with Amazon employees and signed them up in person – that's how we started flying." He also hosted parties and barbecues and invited Amazon workers so Blind could get more signups through word-of-mouth. Redfin didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider, made outside normal working hours.

Two tribal nations to open Minnesota’s first legal recreational marijuana dispensaries 2023-07-30 - WHITE EARTH, Minn. (AP) — At least two tribal nations are expected to open Minnesota’s first recreational marijuana dispensaries in August as recreational marijuana becomes legal to possess and grow in the state on Tuesday. Following a council vote on Friday, the White Earth Nation in northwestern Minnesota legalized recreational cannabis and will begin selling it sometime in the first half of August, Minnesota Public Radio reported. Both tribal members and non-tribal adults 21 years and older would be able to purchase from the nation’s dispensary. Weeks earlier, NativeCare — a tribal-run medical marijuana provider — announced a recreational marijuana dispensary expected to open shortly on Red Lake Nation once the new law takes effect, the Star Tribune reported. The nation is also in northwestern Minnesota. The band could’ve started selling recreational marijuana at that time but decided to wait until Minnesota’s new marijuana law legalizes possession statewide. “Our intention is to be a good partner and ultimately fill the void for people who intend to use cannabis,” Red Lake tribal secretary Sam Strong told the Star Tribune. The state’s Democratic-controlled Legislature approved a massive marijuana legalization bill this year, which Democratic Gov. Tim Walz signed in May. White Earth Nation and Red Lake Nation plan to take advantage of their sovereignty and allow sales right away. But the state projects most legal retail sales won’t begin until early 2025, while it creates a licensing and regulatory system for the new industry. Minnesota is the 23rd state to legalize recreational marijuana, more than a decade after Colorado and Washington did so.

Man dies after being electrocuted at lake Lanier 2023-07-30 - CUMMING, Ga. (AP) — A 24-year-old man died after being electrocuted when he jumped off a dock into Lake Lanier on Thursday, news outlets reported. The Georgia Department of Natural Resources told news outlets that a neighbor was able to pull the man from the water. The man was taken to Northside Forsyth Hospital where he later died. WAGA-TV reported that the Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office identified the man as Thomas Milner. The sheriff’s office told the news outlet that neighbors took a boat over to try to help Milner and one person jumped in the water. That person said that he felt a burning sensation that he recognized as electrical shock. He swam ashore, turned off the power, and then re-entered the water to help Milner. Electric shock drowning can occur when electrical current leaks into surrounding waters, causing a swimmer to become incapacitated, according to the Electric Shock Drowning Prevention Association, an organization dedicated to raising awareness and educating people on the risks of electric shock in water.

The ‘Barbie’ bonanza continues at the box office, ‘Oppenheimer’ holds the No. 2 spot 2023-07-30 - NEW YORK (AP) — A week later, the “Barbenheimer” boom has not abated. Seven days after Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” conspired to set box office records, the two films held unusually strongly in theaters. “Barbie” took in a massive $93 million in its second weekend, according to studio estimates Sunday. “Oppenheimer” stayed in second with a robust $46.2 million. Sales for the two movies dipped 43% and 44%, respectably — well shy of the usual week-two drops. “Barbenheimer” has proven to be not a one-weekend phenomenon but an ongoing box-office bonanza. The two movies combined have already surpassed $1 billion in worldwide ticket sales. Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for data firm Comscore, call it “a touchstone moment for movies, moviegoers and movie theaters.” “Having two movies from rival studios linked in this way and both boosting each other’s fortunes — both box-office wise and it terms of their profile — I don’t know if there’s a comp for this in the annals of box-office history,” said Dergarabedian. “There’s really no comparison for this.” Following its year-best $162 million opening, the pink-infused pop sensation of “Barbie” saw remarkably sustained business through the week and into the weekend. The film outpaced Nolan’s “The Dark Knight” to have the best first 11 days in theaters of any Warner Bros. release ever. “Barbie” has rapidly accumulated $351.4 million in U.S. and Canadian theaters, a rate that will soon make it the biggest box-office hit of the summer. Every day it’s played, “Barbie” has made at least $20 million. And the “Barbie” effect isn’t just in North America. The film made $122.2 million internationally over the weekend. Its global tally has reached $775 million. It’s the kind of business that astounds even veteran studio executives. A patron buys a movie ticket underneath a marquee featuring the films “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” at the Los Feliz Theatre, Friday, July 28, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello) “That’s a crazy number,” said Jeff Goldstein, distribution chief for Warner Bros. “There’s just a built-in audience that wants to be part of the zeitgeist of the moment. Wherever you go, people are wearing pink. Pink is taking over the world.” Amid the frenzy, “Barbie” is already attracting a lot of repeat moviegoers. Goldstein estimates that 12% of sales are people going back with friends or family to see it again. For a movie industry that has been trying to regain its pre-pandemic footing — and that now finds itself largely shuttered due to actors and screenwriters strikes — the sensations of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” have showed what’s possible when everything lines up just right. “Post-pandemic, there’s no ceiling and there’s no floor,” Goldstein said. “The movies that miss really miss big time, and the movies that work really work big time.” Universal Pictures’ “Oppenheimer,” meanwhile, is performing more like a superhero movie than a three-hour film about scientists talking. Nolan’s drama starring Cillian Murphy as atomic bomb physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer has accrued $174.1 million domestically thus far. With an additional $72.4 million in international cinemas, “Oppenheimer” has already surpassed $400 million globally. Showings in IMAX have typically been sold out. “Oppenheimer” has made $80 million worldwide on IMAX. The large-format exhibitor said Sunday that it will extend the film’s run through Aug. 13. The week’s top new release, Walt Disney Co.’s “Haunted Mansion,” an adaptation of the Disney theme park attraction, was easily overshadowed by the “Barbenheimer” blitz. The film, which cost about $150 million, debuted with $24 million domestically and $9 million in overseas sales. “Haunted Mansion,” directed by Justin Simien (“Dear White People,” “Bad Hair”) and starring an ensemble of LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito and Rosario Dawson, struggled to overcome mediocre reviews. “Talk to Me,” the A24 supernatural horror film, fared better. It debuted with $10 million. The film, directed by Australian filmmakers Danny and Michael Philippou and starring Sophie Wilde, was a midnight premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January and received terrific reviews from critics (95% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). It was made for a modest $4.5 million. While theaters being flush with moviegoers has been a huge boon to the film industry, it’s been tougher sledding for Tom Cruise, the so-called savior of the movies last summer with “Top Gun: Maverick.” “Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part I,” which debuted the week before the arrival of “Barbenheimer,” grossed $10.7 million in its third weekend. The film starring Cruise and directed by Christopher McQuarrie, has grossed $139.2 million domestically and $309.3 million oveseas. Instead, the sleeper hit “Sound of Freedom” has been the best performing non-“Barbenheimer” release in theaters. The Angel Studios’ release, which is counting crowdfunding pay-it-forward sales in its box office totals, made $12.4 million in its fourth weekend, bringing its haul thus far to nearly $150 million. Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore. Final domestic figures will be released Monday. 1. “Barbie,” $93 million. 2. “Opppenheimer,” $46.2 million. 3. “Haunted Mansion,” $24.2 million. 4. “Sound of Freedom,” $12.4 million. 5. “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One,” $10.7 million. 6. “Talk to Me,” $10 million. 7. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” $4 million. 8. “Elemental,” $3.4 million. 9. “Insidious: The Red Door,” $3.2 million. 10. “Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahani,” $1.6 million. ___ Follow AP Film Writer Jake Coyle on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP

Indiana search teams recover body of missing man from Lake Michigan 2023-07-30 - GARY, Ind. (AP) — Search teams have recovered the body of an 18-year-old man who went missing Saturday in Lake Michigan off Indiana shore. Emergency responders were sent to Miller Beach in Gary on Saturday afternoon, and dive teams from multiple agencies joined in the search for a missing man presumed to be in the lake, the Indiana Department of Natural Resources said in a statement on Sunday. Strong rip currents and waves up to six feet (1.8 meters) in height made the area dangerous for divers and slowed their efforts, the department said. Around 6 p.m., roughly three hours after responders began their search, a beachgoer spotted the man’s body three-quarters of a mile from where he was last seen. Searchers recovered the body and pronounced the man dead. The name of the man was being withheld pending notification of his family, and conservation officers were investigating the death.

Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against CNN over ‘the Big Lie’ dismissed in Florida 2023-07-30 - A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit Donald Trump filed against CNN in which the former U.S. president claimed that references in news articles or by the network’s hosts to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election as “the Big Lie” were tantamount to comparing him to Adolf Hitler. Trump had been seeking punitive damages of $475 million in the federal lawsuit filed last October in South Florida, claiming the references hurt his reputation and political career. Trump is a candidate for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination in what is his third run for the presidency as a major-party candidate. U.S. District Judge Raag Singhal, who was appointed by Trump, said Friday in his ruling that the former president’s defamation claims failed because the references were opinions and not factual statements. Moreover, it was a stretch to believe that, in viewers’ minds, that phrase would connect Trump’s efforts challenging the 2020 election results to Nazi propaganda or Hitler’s genocidal and authoritarian regime, the judge said. “CNN’s use of the phrase ‘the Big Lie’ in connection with Trump’s election challenges does not give rise to a plausible inference that Trump advocates the persecution and genocide of Jews or any other group of people,” the judge wrote in his decision. Email messages seeking comment were sent to Trump’s attorneys in South Florida and Washington. CNN declined to comment on Sunday. ___ Follow Mike Schneider on Twitter at @MikeSchneiderAP

One person is dead and multiple were wounded in Indiana shooting, police say 2023-07-30 - MUNCIE, Ind. (AP) — A “mass shooting” at a large party in Indiana early Sunday morning left one person dead, police said. A hospital said 19 people were being treated for injuries at its facility. Muncie police responded to multiple reports of gunfire on the city’s east side just after 1 a.m., The Star Press reported. Police said in a news release that there was no active threat to the community and that “multiple” victims were injured, including some critically. “Due to the number of victims and nature of the incident, multiple agencies were contacted to assist,” Muncie Deputy Police Chief Melissa Criswell said in a statement sent to The Star Press. Many police officers from the nearby town of Eaton were among those who provided assistance, according to a post on the department’s Facebook page. Eaton Police Chief Jay Turner called the incident a “mass shooting.” Police did not say how many people were injured, but officials at Indiana University Health Ball Memorial Hospital in Muncie told The Associated Press that 19 victims were treated in their emergency department for injuries related to the shooting, and 13 remained at the hospital in stabilized condition Sunday morning. Criswell said some victims sustained critical injuries and were transferred by medical helicopter to other facilities. Delaware County Coroner Gavin Greene identified the man who died as 30-year-old Joseph E. Bonner III, The Star Press reported.

Some renters may get relief from biggest apartment construction boom in decades, but not all 2023-07-30 - LOS ANGELES (AP) — When viewed through a wide lens, renters across the U.S. finally appear to be getting some relief, thanks in part to the biggest apartment construction boom in decades. Median rent rose just 0.5% in June, year over year, after falling in May for the first time since the pandemic hit the U.S. Some economists project U.S. rents will be down modestly this year after soaring nearly 25% over the past four years. A closer look, however, shows the trend will likely be little comfort for many U.S. renters who’ve had to put an increasing share of their income toward their monthly payment. Renters in cities such as Cincinnati and Indianapolis are still getting hit with increases of 5% or more. Much of the new construction is located in just a few metro areas, and many of the new units are luxury apartments, which rent for well north of $2,000. Median U.S. rent has risen to $2,029 this June from $1,629 in June 2019, according to rental listings company Rent, which tracks rents in 50 of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Demand for apartments exploded during the pandemic as people who could work remotely sought more space or decided to relocate to another part of the country. The steep rent increases have left tenants like Melissa Lombana, a high school teacher who lives in the South Florida city of Miramar, with progressively less income to spend on other needs. The rent on her one-bedroom apartment jumped 13% last year to $1,700. It climbed another 6% to $1,800 this month when she renewed her lease. “Even the $1,700 was a stretch for me,” said Lombana, 43, who supplements her teaching income with a side job doing educational testing. “In a year, I will not be able to afford living here at all.” Web designer Joey Di Girolamo, 50, poses for a picture outside his apartment building, Thursday, July 20, 2023, in Pembroke Pines., Fla. Di Girolamo, who has worked from home since the pandemic, had to downsize from a two-bedroom to one-bedroom apartment, due to rent increases. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) Lombana’s rent is now gobbling up nearly half her monthly income. That puts her in a category referred to as “cost-burdened” by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, denoting households that pay 30% or more of their income toward rent. Last year, the average rent-to-income ratio per household rose to 30%. This March, it was 29.6%. Lombana hasn’t had any luck finding a more affordable apartment. While South Florida is one of the metropolitan areas seeing a rise in apartment construction, the units are mostly high-end and not a viable option. That scenario is playing out across the nation. Developers are rushing to complete projects that were green-lit during the pandemic-era surge in demand for rentals or left in limbo by delays in supplies of fixtures and building materials. Nearly 1.1 million apartments are currently under construction, according to the commercial real estate tracker CoStar, a pace not seen since the 1970s. Increasing the supply of apartments tends to moderate rent increases over time and can give tenants more options on where to live. But more than 40% of the new rentals to be completed this year will be concentrated in about 10 high job growth metropolitan areas, including Austin, Nashville, Denver, Atlanta and New York, according to Marcus & Millichap. In many areas, the boost to overall inventory will be barely noticeable. Melissa Lombana, 43, a high school teacher and mountain bike enthusiast, adjusts the blinds inside her one-bedroom apartment in Miramar, Fla., Wednesday, July 26, 2023. Lombana’s rent has increased each of the last two years and now amounts to nearly half her monthly income. “In a year, I will not be able to afford living here at all,” she said. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) Even within metros where there’ll be a notable increase in available apartments, such as Nashville, most of it will be in the luxury category, where rents average $2,270, nationally. Some 70% of the new rental inventory will be the luxury class, said Jay Lybik, national director of multifamily analytics at CoStar. That will leave most tenants unlikely to see a big enough reduction in rent to make a difference, industry experts and economists say. “I think we’re in a period of rent flattening for 12 or 18 months, but it’s certainly not a big rent decline,” said Hessam Nadji, CEO of commercial real estate firm Marcus & Millichap. “We’re building a multi-decade record number of units,” Nadji said. “It’s going to cause some softening and some pockets of overbuilding, but it’s not going to fundamentally resolve the housing shortage or the affordability problem for renters across the U.S.” The surge in rents has made it difficult for workers to keep up with inflation despite solid wage gains the past few years and exacerbated a long-term trend. Between 1999 and 2022, U.S. rents soared 135%, while income grew 77%, according to data from Moody’s Analytics. Realtor.com is forecasting that rents will drop an average of 0.9% this year. But while down nationally, rents are still rising in many markets around the country, especially those where hiring remains robust. Web designer Joey Di Girolamo, 50, works at his desk with dog Khaleesi snuggled at his feet, Thursday, July 20, 2023, in Pembroke Pines., Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) In the New York metro area, the median rent climbed 4.7% in June from a year earlier to $2,899, according to Realtor.com. In the Midwest, rents surged 5.6% in the Cincinnati metro area to $1,188, and 6.9% to $1,350 in the Indianapolis metro area. The current spike in apartment construction alone isn’t going to be enough to address how costly renting has become for many Americans. “For the rest of the 2020s rents will continue to grow because millennials are such a big generation and we’re very much in the hole in terms of building housing for that generation,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It will take many good years of new construction to build adequate housing for millennials.” The bigger challenge is building more work force housing, because the cost of land, labor and navigating the government approval process incentivize developers to put up luxury apartments buildings. Expanding the supply of modestly priced rentals would help alleviate the strain from so many new apartments targeting renters with high incomes, “although additional subsidies will be needed to make housing affordable to households with the lowest incomes,” researchers at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies wrote in a recent report. Despite the overall pullback in U.S. rents, Joey Di Girolamo, in Pembroke Pines, Florida, worries that he’ll face more sharp rent increases in coming years. Last year, the web designer left a two-bedroom, two-bath townhome he rented for $2,200 a month to avoid a $600 a month increase. This year, his rent went up by $200, a nearly 10% jump. “That blew me away,” said Di Girolamo, 50. “I’m just kind of dreading what it’s going to be like next year, but especially 3 or 4 years from now.”

Musk draws heat from San Francisco over giant X logo 2023-07-30 - July 30 (Reuters) - A giant, glowing X marks the San Francisco spot where Elon Musk says he plans to keep his company, the messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter. But city officials and some residents are unhappy with the display. On Friday, the company erected an "X" logo on the roof of its Market Street headquarters, to the chagrin of neighbors who complained about intrusive lights, and San Francisco's Department of Building Inspection which said it is investigating the structure. The move followed a post from Musk, the enigmatic billionaire who acquired the company in October for $44 billion, announcing the newly named firm would remain in San Francisco despite what he termed the city's recent "doom spiral, with one company after another left or leaving." Musk, who also is CEO of electric car maker Tesla (TSLA.O), moved that company's headquarters from California to Texas in 2021. Keeping X in San Francisco could be a good sign for a city that has struggled to bounce back from tourism and business losses sustained during the pandemic. Its downtown region is struggling with job cuts in the tech sector, the departure of major retailers, and reduced tourism. Traffic has fallen as more people work from home, while high-profile crime and homelessness have tarnished the city's image. "Beautiful San Francisco, though others forsake you, we will always be your friend," Musk wrote. Yet not all San Franciscans are keen for Musk's friendship. Locals over the weekend recorded video of the giant X glowing, pulsing and strobing, with some criticizing its intrusive lights. X user @itsmefrenchy123 said they would be "LIVID" over the bright logo, imagining it "right across from your bedroom." "I'm just astounded at the flagrant lack of consideration for anyone ever," wrote X user @DollyMarlowe. San Francisco's Department of Building Inspection, meanwhile, opened an investigation into the structure, saying it might be in violation of permitting rules. A BID inspector said in a written report that company representatives denied roof access, twice, to BID officials seeking to inspect the logo. The inspector noted one representative said the sign was temporary. A BID spokesperson could not immediately be reached on Sunday. Reporting by Nicholas P. Brown; editing by Peter Henderson and Chris Reese Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

'Barbenheimer' box office sales keep rolling in second weekend 2023-07-30 - July 30 (Reuters) - Warner Bros' (WBD.O) "Barbie" showed no signs of slowing down in its second weekend at the box office, and was set to haul in $93 million in ticket sales Friday through Sunday, according to estimates from media analytics firm Comscore. Director Greta Gerwig's take on "Barbie" - the year's No. 1 movie, and the highest-grossing opening weekend for a film directed by a woman - has made more than $351 million in the U.S. and Canada since opening on July 21, and nearly $775 million globally, Comscore reported. The film, which stars Margot Robbie in the titular role, and Ryan Gosling as Barbie's iconic beau, Ken, sends Mattel Inc's (MAT.O) iconic doll on an adventure into the real world. The toy maker last week posted a surprise second-quarter profit in the wake of the movie's release, with CEO Ynon Kreiz telling analysts the company would expand its "Barbie"-related toys and products in the second half of 2023. On Barbie's heels this weekend was "Oppenheimer," director Christopher Nolan's historical tale of the physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer and the making of the atomic bomb, which made an estimated $46.2 million Friday through Sunday in what Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian called a "phenomenal second weekend." The two films together have been dubbed "Barbenheimer," a nod to the relative rarity of two blockbusters opening the same weekend. Their combined sales are "absolutely mind blowing," Dergarabedian said, with second-weekend numbers that "would have been hailed as opening weekend wins." Universal's Oppenheimer has made $174 million in the U.S. and Canada so far, and $400 million worldwide. The films have seized American moviegoers' attention at an uncertain time for Hollywood. The Writers' Guild of America, a labor union representing writers, has been on strike over pay since May, while SAG-AFTRA - the union for artists and actors, including A-list stars like Robbie - went on strike earlier this month. Reporting by Nicholas P. Brown, Editing by Peter Henderson and Aurora Ellis Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

ECB's Lagarde says latest growth data 'encouraging' 2023-07-30 - FRANKFURT, July 30 (Reuters) - Latest data about economic output in France, Germany and Spain is "quite encouraging" and confirms the European Central Bank's expectations, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview published on Sunday. "The second quarter GDP figures for France, Germany and Spain are quite encouraging," Lagarde told French daily Le Figaro. "They support our scenario of GDP growth of 0.9% in the euro area this year." Reporting by Francesco Canepa; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Exclusive: Banks vote to limit accounting of emissions in bond and stock sales 2023-07-30 - Summary Companies Banks back accounting for 33% of capital market-linked emissions Environmental advocates push for 100% attribution PCAF board expected to back the 33% weighting, ending delays LONDON, July 30 (Reuters) - Banks working to develop global standards on accounting for carbon emissions in bond or stock sale underwriting have voted to exclude most of these emissions from their own carbon footprint, three people familiar with the matter said. The majority of banks comprising an industry working group backed a plan earlier this month to exclude two-thirds of the emissions linked to their capital markets businesses from being attributed to them in carbon accounting, the sources said, following months of discord over the issue. If upheld, the decision would pit banks against environmental advocates, many of whom say the banking industry should assume full responsibility for the emissions generated by activities financed through bonds and stock sales, as it already does with loans. Almost half of the financing provided by the six biggest U.S. banks for top fossil fuel companies came from capital markets rather than direct lending between 2016 and 2022, according to environmental group Sierra Club. Banks' accounting of these emissions will impact their targets for becoming carbon-neutral. Major lenders have pledged to bring their emissions down to zero on a net basis by 2050, and have set interim targets for this decade. Banks with big capital markets operations in the working group argued that they should assume responsibility for only 33% of the emissions of activities financed through bonds and stock sales because they do not have control over the borrowers as they do with loans. The banks have also expressed concern about capital market-related emissions dwarfing their lending-related emissions, the sources said. Those pushing for a low accounting threshold say assuming responsibility for 100% of the emissions would lead to double-counting across the financial system, because bond and stock investors will also separately account for some of the emissions generated by the financing activities in their own carbon footprints. The majority of the banks in the working group backed the 33% threshold but at least two dissented, with one advocating for 100%, the sources said, requesting anonymity because the deliberations were confidential. The accounting standard will not be mandatory. The Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF), an association of banks seeking to harmonise carbon accounting across the industry, formed the working group comprising major banks in the hope that others will follow the standard that emerges. PCAF's board will now have the final say on whether to adopt the 33% accounting share for capital markets. Two of the sources said no decision had been made but it was reluctant to override the working group. A PCAF spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. The working group's members are Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Barclays (BARC.L), Bank of America (BAC.N) Citigroup (C.N), HSBC (HSBA.L), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), NatWest (NWG.L) and Standard Chartered (STAN.L). Officials from all but two either declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. A Barclays spokesperson said the bank supported PCAF's work to establish standards for emissions and declined to comment further. A Standard Chartered spokesperson said the bank was comfortable with any emissions accounting threshold and declined to comment further. The sources said PCAF had become frustrated at how much energy had been spent arguing over the right number, and believed any percentage was better than further delays. Publication of PCAF's final methodology has been delayed since last year because of the disagreements. BUNDLING EMISSIONS Campaign group ShareAction said the 33% weighting had been "plucked out of thin air." "PCAF has the responsibility to publish guidance that enables a transparent and unbiased assessment of banks' climate risks and impacts," its research manager Xavier Lerin said. It is not yet clear whether banks will have to bundle together their capital market-related emissions and their lending-related emissions into a single target, or separate them. Having a single target but two accounting approaches for the different emissions could prove challenging, one of the sources said. The Science Based Targets initiative, a separate body backed by the United Nations and environmental groups, is in the process of developing net-zero standards which will include whether banks should have different or combined targets. Reporting by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes in London; Editing by Greg Roumeliotis and Rosalba O'Brien Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Kraken says all systems operational after issue with Ethereum funding gateway 2023-07-30 - July 30 (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken said on Sunday that issues with cryptocurrency Ethereum's funding gateway have been resolved. "All systems operational," Kraken said on its status page, without giving details on what caused the issue. Kraken had said early on Sunday that it was investigating an issue with the Ethereum funding gateway and that it could cause a delay in deposits and withdrawals. Ethereum is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency. Reporting by Rishabh Jaiswal and Nilutpal Timsina in Bengaluru; Editing by Edwina Gibbs and Angus MacSwan Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden to acquire 10% of Brazil base metals firm 2023-07-30 - DUBAI, July 30 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE), known as Ma'aden, has agreed to acquire a 10% stake in Brazil's base metals company Vale, it said in a bourse statement on Sunday, as part of a strategy to invest in global mining assets. Ma'aden, through Manara, its joint venture established with the Public Investment Fund, on Thursday signed a binding agreement to acquire the 10% stake in Vale Base Metals, based on an enterprise value of $26 billion. "Manara’s investment into Vale will play a key role in helping it expand the production of copper and nickel across its asset portfolio, which are critical to the development of new technologies that will benefit the global energy transition," the company statement said. The transaction, which will be financed by Ma'aden's own resources, is subject to regulatory approvals and expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. Reporting by Rachna Uppal; Editing by Angus MacSwan Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Stocks are on a seemingly unstoppable hot streak, but this bond-market ‘tipping point’ could see it end in a hurry 2023-07-30 - The S&P 500 index is on the verge of a fifth straight monthly gain in July. It’s a reality that few on Wall Street expected just eight months ago. As a result, it seems that one by one, equity analysts at the big banks are issuing mea culpas or tweaking their S&P 500 targets. With so many reconsidering their assumptions about markets and the economy, one analyst who has been bullish for months sees an opportunity to reflect on what Wall Street got wrong in 2023 — and by doing so, pinpoint potential existential threats to the rally that may lie ahead. Jawad Mian, a longtime financial markets professional and the founder of Stray Reflections, said professional investors and economists generally underestimated just how resilient U.S. corporations, and U.S. consumers, and the broader U.S. economy would be to higher interest rates. At the same time, they failed to fully appreciate inflation’s ability to boost corporate profits over the long term. So far, stocks have proved resilient to higher bond yields in 2023, but that doesn’t mean they always will be. Mian believes that rising real yields could eventually push past a “tipping point” that would send U.S. equity valuations sharply lower. “I think what’s happening is we are collectively discovering how high interest rates can go before the economy breaks,” he said. “I think the 10-year yield is heading toward 5%. But the nuanced take here is the path higher is not troublesome…however, at some point, we’ll reach a level that’s too much,” Mian added during a phone interview with MarketWatch. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.953% stood at 3.955% on Friday. Past the point of no return The Federal Reserve pushed its policy interest-rate to its highest level in 22 years earlier this week, and further hikes certainly could push long-dated bond yields higher, Mian said. But the blow that drives markets over the cliff could easily come from somewhere else as well. For example: Foreign investors, particularly those in Japan, could choose to dump U.S. Treasurys now that they’re being enticed by more attractive yields back home. Investors received a small taste of what this might look like on Thursday afternoon when a headline about the Bank of Japan’s plans to loosen its grip on its government bond market sent the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond TMUBMUSD30Y, 4.012% north of 4%, sparking a selloff in stocks that led to the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapping a 13-day winning streak. Yields on the 10-year Japanese government bond hit their highest levels since 2014 on Friday after the BOJ confirmed those reports during its July policy meeting. See: Why U.S. stocks and bonds stumbled on talk of a Bank of Japan policy tweak Corporate earnings are another puzzle While it’s important for investors to monitor bond-market threats like this, yields don’t exist in a vacuum. Corporate earnings are another important piece of the puzzle. Higher yields make bonds more attractive to investors, helping to dim the appeal of stocks, but they also increase borrowing costs for corporations, potentially cutting into profits and pushing companies to lay off employees or enact other belt-tightening measures. The more pressure companies face from rising borrowing costs, they more likely they’ll need to take more cost-cutting measures like laying off employees. “Generally speaking, if yields move higher that should put downward pressure on multiples. That’s a risk to the stock market for sure,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer for Sierra Investment Management, during a phone interview with MarketWatch. For now at least, it looks like stocks could continue to ride this wave of momentum higher, even if valuations are looking somewhat stretched relative to recent history already, St. Aubin said. For this to continue though, corporate earnings will need to keep pace with increasingly optimistic expectations. Already, stock valuations are looking lofty based on the price-to-earnings ratio, one of Wall Street’s favorite metrics for determining how expensive or cheap the market looks. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index currently stands at 19.4. That’s already higher than the five-year average of 18.6, and the 10-year average of 17.4, according to FactSet data. Right now, investors are willing to tolerate this because they expect corporate profits to grow substantially in the years ahead, even though profits are expected to contract by 7% in the quarter ended in June, bringing the stretch of negative earnings growth to a third straight quarter. But in 2024, year-over-year earnings growth is expected to swell to 12.6%. If companies meet, or surpass, these expectations, stocks will likely hold on to their gains, if not continue to climb, St. Aubin said. However, should earnings growth disappoint, a painful market reckoning might follow. Since the start of 2023, U.S. stocks have nearly erased all of their losses from 2022, which was the worst year for stock-market performance since 2008, while bonds saw their biggest declines in decades as yields soared driven by inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes. Since Jan. 1, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.99% has risen 19.3% to 4,582.23, according to FactSet.