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Why bad news for the economy can be good news for stocks 2024-03-14 08:56:53+00:00 - By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . You can opt-out at any time. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. download the app Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read preview Good news for the economy can be bad news for stocks, thanks to a weird quirk of market logic. Positive economic developments such as strong GDP growth, robust employment gains, and mild inflation tend to drive stocks higher in the long run. Yet their implications for interest rates have mattered more to stocks in recent months. Here's why. The performance of the stock market and the economy are correlated over the long term, as a company's stock represents the projected value of its future cash flows, which are closely linked to the economy's growth and stability. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. How stocks and the economy are related When an economy grows, it usually means jobs are being created, household incomes are rising, companies' sales and profits are swelling, and consumers and investors are feeling confident instead of stressing about being laid off or a recession taking hold. All of that tends to push up stock prices. Advertisement Similarly, low and stable inflation boosts confidence among consumers, businesses, and investors. That buoys stocks by fueling spending across the economy and demand for risk assets. Low unemployment makes it more expensive and laborious for employers to find workers. But it also signals that companies aren't struggling so much that they're laying off workers in droves. Moreover, it means many consumers are earning regular paychecks they can use to buy goods and services from businesses, which contributes to corporate bottom lines and stock prices. By that logic, months of economic data showing inflation returning to target levels, unemployment remaining near 40-year lows, and steadily rising GDP should hearten investors and lift stocks, especially as it makes an imminent recession less likely. Yet Wall Street hasn't welcomed the news for one big reason: the Federal Reserve. The central bank hiked interest rates from nearly zero to north of 5% and has kept them there as it works out how to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Advertisement Rate pain Those rate increases have heaped pressure on stocks by discouraging spending, hiring, and investing. Many households face not just painful rises in their food and fuel bills and rents, but also larger monthly payments on their mortgages, cars, and credit cards since the Fed raised borrowing costs. Businesses have seen their interest expenses rise, dealing heavy blows to debt-reliant sectors like commercial real estate and the regional banks that primarily fund them. As for investors, they've rushed to capture the larger yields offered by government bonds and savings accounts. That has reduced the relative appeal of stocks, which typically generate better returns but carry greater risk. Increased pressure on consumers, businesses, and stocks represents a triple headwind for stockholders. It's little wonder they're rubbing their hands in anticipation of the Fed starting to reverse its hikes this year now that inflation has stayed below 4% for several months. Advertisement Fed dilemma However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues won't start cutting until they're confident that inflation is under control and they won't reignite it by stimulating the economy. They may decide a recession is looming large and it's worth slashing rates to reduce its length and severity. The result is that economic data showing strong consumer spending, healthy job growth, and fast-advancing GDP threaten to stoke inflation fears, settle recession worries, and thus push back the Fed's timeline. The strange consequence is that good news for the economy is being received as bad news on Wall Street, because it dashes hopes of an imminent cut to rates and a bump to stocks, and increases the chances that the Fed might hike further. Good news on GDP data "has the potential to be bad news for market sentiment, provided that strong growth and higher inflation would push the Fed rate cut expectations further down the road," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a recent note. Advertisement Careful what you wish for Of course, there's a risk to celebrating bad news as too much could herald a recession that the Fed can't stop, and recessions are reliably terrible for stocks. The US could also suffer stagflation, where growth stalls but inflation remains stubbornly high, or even deflation and a dramatic spike in unemployment that tanks markets and shocks the financial system. Economic hardship generally dampens consumer spending and craters investor confidence, weighing on stocks. It's bizarre that some stock investors are now hoping for the economy to soften so the Fed will start cutting rates, even though a booming economy is good news for stocks. The reality is they want both a buoyant economy and much lower rates, and believe some pain now is the best way to get there. They should be careful what they wish for.
Shell warns it may slow emissions reduction during crucial climate decade 2024-03-14 08:53:00+00:00 - The energy company Shell has watered down one of its climate ambitions as it prepares to keep its oil production stable while growing its liquified natural gas business. The company used its latest energy transition strategy to warn that it may slow the pace of its emissions reductions this decade, saying that it now wants to reduce the carbon emissions intensity of the energy it sells by 15-20% by 2030, compared with its previous target of 20%. The target is measured against 2016. The updated target will enable Shell to slow the pace of its emissions reductions in a decade that climate scientists have warned is crucial in averting a climate catastrophe. The oil company has also promised to cut emissions from producing oil and gas – but it will continue to keep its oil production stable while growing its liquified natural gas business, meaning overall emissions on an absolute basis could continue to rise. Wael Sawan, Shell’s chief executive, said: “A balanced energy transition, which Shell supports, is one that maintains secure and affordable energy supplies, while the world builds the clean energy system of the future.” “Billions of people depend on energy and hundreds of millions still hope to have access to it. Energy is vital for lives everywhere,” Sawan said. Last month, Shell revealed an annual profit of more than $28bn (£22bn) for 2023, one of its most profitable years on record, as green activists staged a protest outside the company’s London headquarters. Sawan, who became chief executive early last year, received a pay package of £7.9m in 2023, the company’s annual report revealed. He replaced Ben van Beurden, who was paid £9.7m in 2022. Jonathan Noronha-Gant, a senior fossil fuels campaigner at Global Witness, said: “Shell’s CEO pay packet is a bitter pill to swallow for the millions of workers living with the high costs of energy. Our reliance on Shell’s dirty oil and gas make them rich whilst the rest of us get poorer.” Sawan angered green groups within months of taking up the top job by suggesting that the company would reverse a plan to reduce Shell’s oil and gas production by 1-2% a year, in pursuit of higher profits. skip past newsletter promotion Sign up to Business Today Free daily newsletter Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning Enter your email address Sign up Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy . We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. after newsletter promotion Sawan said the company added 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day to its production last year and by 2025 would start enough new fossil fuel projects to add half a million barrels a day. The decision to continue investing in fossil fuels goes against advice from climate experts who have said there can be no new fossil fuel development if the world hopes to avoid a climate crisis. The new oil and gas projects would enable Shell to “continue providing the energy security that the world needs, while delivering cashflow longevity into the future”, according to Sawan.
Europe is trying to regulate AI. That could backfire. 2024-03-14 08:52:06+00:00 - By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . You can opt-out at any time. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. download the app Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read preview The European Union is forging ahead with its plans to regulate artificial intelligence. On Wednesday, the European Parliament approved the Artificial Intelligence Act, with 523 votes in favor, 46 against, and 49 abstentions. "Europe is NOW a global standard-setter in AI," Thierry Breton, the European internal market commissioner, said on X. "We are regulating as little as possible — but as much as needed!" This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. It's the first attempt at sweeping AI control by a major regulator to protect its citizens from the technology's potential risks. Other countries, including China, have already brought in rules around specific uses of AI. Advertisement The legislation has been questioned by some commentators, such as AI and deepfakes expert Henry Ajder, who called it "very ambitious." While calling it an overall positive step, he warned it risked making Europe less competitive globally. "My concern is that we will see companies explicitly avoiding developing in certain regions where there is robust and comprehensive regulation," he told Business Insider. "There will be countries that almost act as AI policy tax havens where they explicitly avoid enforcing harsh legislation to try to attract certain kinds of organizations." The act has been in the works for some time. First mooted in 2021, it was provisionally agreed in negotiations with member countries in December 2023. The EU legislation plans to assign the risks of AI applications into three categories, with applications that cause unacceptable risk set to be banned. Advertisement High-risk applications assigned to the second category will be subject to specific legal requirements, while applications in the third will largely left unregulated. Key milestone Neil Serebryany, CEO of California-based Calypso AI, told BI that while the "Act includes complex and potentially costly compliance requirements that could initially burden businesses, it also presents an opportunity to advance AI more responsibly and transparently." He called the legislation a "key milestone in the evolution of AI" and an opportunity for companies to consider social values in their products from the earliest stages. The regulation is expected to come into force in May, providing it passes final checks. Implementation of the new rules will then be phased in from 2025. Advertisement How exactly the rules will apply to businesses is also still relatively vague. Avani Desai, CEO of cybersecurity firm Schellman, said the Act may have a similar impact to the EU's general data protection regulation (GDPR) legislation and require US companies to meet certain requirements to operate in Europe. Companies uncertain about the rules can expect more details on the specific requirements in the coming months as the EU Commission establishes the AI Office and begins to set standards, said Marcus Evans at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright. "The first obligations in the AI Act will come into force this year and others over the next three years, so companies need to start preparing as soon as possible to ensure they do not fall foul of the new rules," he added.
Asia markets mixed as Wall Street rally falters; India inflation data on deck 2024-03-14 08:47:00+00:00 - Beautiful and colorful aerial view of Mumbai skyline during twilight seen from Currey Road, on February 16, 2022 in Mumbai, India. Pratik Chorge | Hindustan Times | Getty Images Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday after Wall Street's tech-fueled rally dissipated, with investors focused on Japan's spring wage negotiations and India's wholesale inflation data. Japan's wage negotiations wrapped up on Wednesday, with the first overall estimate due on Friday. Reports from local outlets have indicated that large firms offered "major" wage hikes. Strong wage increases could clear the way for the Bank of Japan to start unwinding its ultra easy monetary policy, with the central bank due to meet next Monday and Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei 225 reversed losses to rise 0.29%, while the broad-based Topix saw a larger gain of 0.30%, with defensive utilities stocks leading gains as investors remained cautious. South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.94% to 2,718.76, while the Kosdaq index slipped 0.27%, finishing at 887.52 and snapping a four day winning streak. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 0.83% after climbing earlier in the day, while mainland China's CSI 300 closed down 0.28% at 3,562.22. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 0.2% lower, despite a rally by miners on the back of gold's continued strength.
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. consumer spending data looms 2024-03-14 08:26:00+00:00 - This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here . Asia stocks mixed Asia markets were mixed Thursday as investors assessed Japan's spring wage negotiations. The Nikkei 225 and Topix gained as markets priced in the prospect of the Bank of Japan tightening policy. Overnight, Wall Street also ended mixed dragged down by tech stocks as investors await key updates on retail sales and producer prices. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.19% and 0.54%, respectively. The 30-stock Dow , on the other hand, added 0.1%. EV hype may be over The euphoria around electric vehicles is waning. Ford Motor, General Motors and Mercedes-Benz are some of the major automakers that are scaling back or delaying their EV plans. This comes as the sector sees lower rates of growth and a slower pace of adoption than previously expected. Palantir CEO on backing Israel Palantir CEO Alex Karp said his outspoken pro-Israel views have caused staff to leave the company and that he expects to see more walk out. "If you have a position that does not cost you ever to lose an employee, it's not a position," Karp said in an interview on CNBC. House passes TikTok bill The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that could lead to a ban against TikTok if its Chinese owner, ByteDance, doesn't sell its stake in the popular video app. The bill now heads to the Senate where it faces steep hurdles as senators are divided over the legislation. [PRO] China stocks worth the risk Chinese stocks are a "risk worth taking," said Jason Hsu, chairman and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors. He noted they are "trading at the cheapest" while offering "a big discount," and sees huge opportunities to play the market.
Review into UK air traffic control failure finds ‘lack of pre-planning’ 2024-03-14 08:22:00+00:00 - An independent review into the August bank holiday air traffic control meltdown, which affected nearly 750,000 passengers, has highlighted a “significant lack of pre-planning”. Flights were grounded across UK airports on 28 August after the ATC provider National Air Traffic Services (Nats) experienced a technical glitch while processing a flight plan. An interim report from an inquiry into what happened found there does not appear to have been “any multi-agency rehearsal of the management of an incident of this nature and scale”. These rehearsals are “best practice” and “regularly conducted in other sectors”, the inquiry panel stated. The interim report, published by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), a regulator, noted: “The panel expects to recommend that the CAA should review and lead such multi-agency planning. “This is especially important, as some relationships between aviation sector stakeholders appear to be adversarial. “This is not to the benefit of passengers, especially in a crisis situation such as this incident.” It went on: “It is clear there is a significant lack of pre-planning and coordination for major events and incidents that targets the alleviation and remediation of major incidents.” Many affected passengers were required to pay upfront for alternative flights, food and accommodation and submit claims to airlines for reimbursement, despite airlines being legally required to provide these. The inquiry panel described the financial cost to passengers as “very considerable”, but noted that the “stress and anxiety” was “at least as serious”. Some travellers were stranded overseas for several days because of the number of flight cancellations. The inquiry was launched by the CAA and is being led by Jeff Halliwell, who has served as a chief executive and non-executive director in roles across the private and public sector. skip past newsletter promotion Sign up to Business Today Free daily newsletter Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning Enter your email address Sign up Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy . We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. after newsletter promotion Halliwell said: “This interim report sets out the panel’s work so far in understanding the root causes of the incident; the effectiveness of communications between Nats, other parts of the aviation sector and the consumers; and the underpinning regulatory regime. “In order to produce effective recommendations, the panel has further lines of inquiry it is exploring in order to build a better understanding of how the aviation system can improve.” The CAA chief executive, Rob Bishton, said: “This interim report helps with the understanding of what went wrong, what worked well in response to this, and importantly what action can be taken to improve the UK’s aviation system for the future.” Nats was approached by the PA news agency for a comment.
Stock market today: Global shares trade mixed as investors look to central banks 2024-03-14 08:01:28+00:00 - TOKYO (AP) — Global shares are mixed Thursday in lackluster trading. France’s CAC 40 added 0.6% to 8,188.16 in early trading, while Germany’s DAX edged up 0.2% to 18,001.59. Britain’s FTSE 100 was virtually unchanged, up less than 0.1%, at 7,774.83. U.S. shares were set to drift higher with Dow futures up nearly 0.3% at 39,632.00. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% to 5,247.75. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed course from earlier losses and finished at 38,807.38, up 0.3%. Nissan Motor Co. stock jumped 2.2% after an unconfirmed Japanese media report that the automaker behind the Leaf electric car was about to enter an agreement on EVs with domestic rival Honda Motor Co. Honda shares rose 1.1%. Both Nissan and Honda declined comment. Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2% to 7,713.60. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.9% to 2,718.76. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.7% to 16,961.66, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,038.23. “In a significant turn of events, there’s increasing speculation that the Bank of Japan might consider ending its negative interest rate policy in its upcoming meeting, spurred by substantial wage hikes by major Japanese firms,” said Anderson Alves at ActivTrades. The Japanese central bank has set a target of 2% inflation. The Bank of Japan will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting next week. Oil prices have been on a general upswing so far this year, which has helped keep inflation a bit higher than economists expected. That higher inflation has in turn dashed Wall Street’s hopes that the Federal Reserve could start offering relief at its meeting next week by cutting interest rates. But the expectation is still for the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, because the longer-term trend for inflation seems to remain downward. The Fed’s main interest rate is at its highest level since 2001, and reductions would release pressure on the economy and financial system. In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 13 cents to $79.85 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 14 cents to $84.17 a barrel. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.90 Japanese yen from 147.74 yen. The euro cost $1.0941, down from $1.0953.
Indian farmers protest in New Delhi demanding new legislation for minimum crop prices 2024-03-14 07:20:10+00:00 - NEW DELHI (AP) — Thousands of farmers crowding buses and trains traveled to the Indian capital on Thursday to press their demand for new legislation to guarantee minimum profitable crop prices, after weeks of being blocked from the city. They avoided using their tractors after authorities barricaded highways into New Delhi with cement blocks and barbed wire. A condition of allowing their rally in the capital were that the farmers not use their farm vehicles. They were also barred from carrying sticks or swords to avoid clashes with police. The protesters carried placards demanding free electricity for farming. They contended that without guarantees for their crop prices, they would be at the mercy of the markets and that would spell disaster, especially for the more than two-thirds of them who own less than 1 hectare (2 1/2 acres) of land. The rally, organized by the United Farmers Front, was held at Ramlila Ground, which is used for religious festivals, major political meetings and entertainment events. The police permitted the rally also on the condition that the farmers wouldn’t bring in more than 5,000 people, the Press Trust of India news agency said. The protests come at a crucial time for India, which has a national election in April-May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party widely expected to secure a third successive term. Farmers are a particularly influential voting bloc in India with their sheer numbers. More than 60% of India’s 1.4 billion people depend on farming for their livelihoods. The farmers are also pressing the government to keep its promises to waive loans and withdraw legal cases brought against them during their 2021 protests. Several talks so far have failed to break the deadlock. Thousands of farmers have been protesting separately in Shambhu, a town some 200 kilometers (120 miles) from the capital, since Feb. 13. Authorities have barricaded highways leading to New Delhi with cement blocks, metal containers, barbed wire and iron spikes to prevent the farmers from entering. The farmers have brought in bulldozers and excavators to try and push through. On Feb 21, clashes between farmers and police left one protester dead as the farmers tried to resume their march to the Indian capital after talks with the government failed to end an impasse over their demands for guaranteed crop prices. Haryana police said 12 officers were injured after protesters attacked them with sticks and pelted them with stones. The farmers paused their protest and hunkered down near the town of Shambhu, close to the border between Punjab and Haryana states, as their unions engaged in discussions with government ministers. They rejected a proposal offering them five-year contracts of guaranteed prices on a set of certain crops, including maize, grain legumes and cotton. Two years ago, tens of thousands of farmers camped out on the outskirts of New Delhi forcing Modi to repeal new agriculture laws in a major reversal for his government. Jagjit Singh Dallewal, one of the farmers leading the march, said they did not want any violence, but condemned the federal government over the massive security measures. The protest organizers say the farmers are seeking new legislation that would guarantee minimum prices for 23 crops. The farmers believe this would help stabilize their income. The government protects agricultural producers against sharp falls in farm prices by setting a minimum purchase price for certain essential crops, a system that was introduced in the 1960s to help shore up food reserves and prevent shortages. The system can apply up to 23 crops, but the government usually offers the minimum price only for rice and wheat.
‘Why would we go to America first?’ London’s Groucho Club to open in Yorkshire 2024-03-14 06:00:00+00:00 - The Groucho Club, the private members’ club known for its hell-raising 39-year history in the heart of London’s Soho is expanding for the first time to an unlikely location: the heart of the West Yorkshire countryside. The club’s first outpost will be located near Wakefield at Bretton Hall, the former arts education facility that sits within the grounds of the Yorkshire Sculpture Park, which will be converted into a club and hotel with about 60 rooms. The appearance of the most London of brands close to the Rhubarb Triangle may raise a few eyebrows but Ewan Venters, the CEO of Artfarm and Hauser & Wirth, said the move to Yorkshire made more sense than an oft-mooted international expansion. “Why would we go to America first, why wouldn’t we want to go to the north of England?” he said, before getting in a gentle dig at his competitors. “I wanted to avoid the Cotswolds because that doesn’t represent our membership.” The Groucho Club was founded in 1985 by a group of publishers and agents including Carmen Callil and Liz Calder, and has 5,000 members. It welcomed female members, something that was anathema to London’s male members’ clubs, while fostering a creative membership that included everyone from members of Blur and Damien Hirst to Tracey Emin and Francis Bacon. Venters says the new location will have the “DNA” of the Soho establishment while offering a programme of music, performance arts and lectures. View image in fullscreen Ewan Venters: ‘Yorkshire couldn’t be more multicultural and diverse.’ Photograph: Sarah Lee/The Guardian The hotel and club will be the latest expansion by a luxury brand to the north of England and beyond: Soho House is creating its first northern base in Manchester, while the Sessions Arts Club restaurant opened an artists’ retreat and hotel called the Boath near Inverness. Venters said he hated the term “levelling up”, calling it a “disparaging term in the wrong context”, but said he believed there was a “civic duty” for the public and private sector to ensure we have “a very healthy cultural and economic country in every part of the UK”. Venters says the venture, in partnership with Rushbond Group, a retail investor that has bought several sites in Yorkshire (including the brutalist former northern home of the Bank of England in Leeds), is very different from the Soho House expansions, which have led some members to say it has lost its appeal. He pointed to other successful projects such as his renovation of the five-star Fife Arms hotel in the Scottish highland town of Braemar, which he said had breathed new life into the local economy. The Groucho Club’s second site is a different proposition: it is located in a cultural hub that was established almost 50 years ago. The Yorkshire Sculpture Park is only a few years older than the Groucho Club, opening in 1977, and its former director Peter Murray said “no one thought it was a good idea” to found the rolling 202-hectare (500-acre) estate. It now welcomes 380,000 visitors a year, has hosted international names and a city-based festival, while the Rhubarb Triangle has been hailed the Sculpture Triangle with Leeds Art Gallery, the Henry Moore Institute and the Hepworth Wakefield making West Yorkshire “arguably the best place in Europe to see sculpture”. The Groucho Club sees that base as an attractive draw for London members, who will get full access to Bretton Hall once it reopens in 2026. Venters anticipates the northern outpost’s core membership to be drawn from the creative communities in Leeds (where Channel 4 has moved its headquarters), and even as far afield as Manchester. “I expect members to travel up to an hour, which isn’t that different from the Groucho in Soho,” he said. When Hauser & Wirth, the international gallerists, bought the Groucho Club in August 2022, Venters said there was a focus on bringing in younger members. In the case of Bretton Hall he didn’t have a particular demographic in mind but added: “Yorkshire couldn’t be more multicultural and diverse so it’d be wrong to pigeonhole and say it’s a 30- to 50-year-old person working in the creative industries.” Venters said there was still an ambition to expand the Groucho Club internationally, but first the most London of clubs needed to conquer West Yorkshire.
What will the EU’s proposed act to regulate AI mean for consumers? 2024-03-14 06:00:00+00:00 - The EU’s proposed AI act was endorsed by the European parliament on Wednesday, and is a milestone in regulating the technology. The vote is an important step towards introducing the legislation, which now requires the formal approval of ministers from EU member states. Consumers will not notice an immediate difference, given that the act will be implemented over a period of three years, but it will answer some concerns over the technology. “Users will be able to trust that the AI tools they have access to have been carefully vetted and are safe to use,” said Guillaume Couneson, partner at law firm Linklaters. “This is similar to users of banking apps being able to trust that the bank has taken stringent security measures to enable them to use the apps safely.” The bill matters outside the EU because Brussels is an influential tech regulator, as shown by GDPR’s impact on the management of people’s data. The AI act could do the same. “Many other countries will be watching what happens in the EU following the adoption of the AI Act. The EU approach will likely only be copied if it is shown to work,” Couneson added. How does the bill define AI? A basic definition of AI is a computer system that carries out tasks you would normally associate with human levels of intelligence, such as writing an essay or drawing a picture. The act itself has a more detailed take, describing the AI technology it regulates as a “machine-based system designed to operate with varying levels of autonomy”, which obviously covers tools like ChatGPT. This system may show “adaptiveness after deployment” – ie it learns on the job – and infers from the inputs it receives “how to generate outputs such as predictions, content, recommendations or decisions that can influence physical or virtual environments”. This definition covers chatbots, but also AI tools that, for instance, sift through job applications. As detailed below, the legislation bans systems that pose an “unacceptable risk”, but it exempts AI tools designed for military, defence or national security use, issues that alarm many tech safety advocates. It also does not apply to systems designed for use in scientific research and innovation. “We fear that the exemptions for national security in the AI Act provide member states with a carte blanche to bypass crucial AI regulations and create a high risk of abuse,” said Kilian Vieth-Ditlmann, deputy head of policy at German non-profit organisation Algorithmwatch, which campaigns for responsible AI use. How does the bill tackle the risks posed by AI? Certain systems will be prohibited. These include systems that seek to manipulate people to cause harm; “social scoring” systems that classify people based on social behaviour or personality, like the one in Rongcheng, China, where the city rated aspects of residents’ behaviour; Minority Report-style attempts at predictive policing; monitoring people’s emotions at work or in schools; “biometric categorisation” systems that sift people based on their biometric data (retina scans, facial recognition, fingerprints) to infer things such as race, sexual orientation, political opinions or religious beliefs; and compiling facial recognition databases through scraping facial images from the internet or CCTV. Exemptions for law enforcement Facial recognition has been a contentious factor in the legislation. The use of real-time biometric identification systems – which covers facial recognition technology on live crowds – is banned, but allowed for law enforcement in a number of circumstances. Law enforcement can use such technology to find a missing person or prevent a terror attack, but they will need approval from authorities – although in exceptional circumstances it can be deployed without prior approval. What about systems that are risky but not banned? The act has a special category for “high risk” systems that will be legal but closely observed. Included are systems used in critical infrastructure, like water, gas and electricity, or those deployed in areas like education, employment, healthcare and banking. Certain law enforcement, justice and border control systems will also be covered. For instance, a system used in deciding whether someone is admitted to an educational institution, or whether they get a job, will be deemed high-risk. The act requires these tools to be accurate, subject to risk assessments, have human oversight, and also have their usage logged. EU citizens can also ask for explanations about decisions made by these AI systems that have affected them. What about generative AI? Generative AI – the term for systems that produce plausible text, image, video and audio from simple prompts – is covered by provisions for what the act calls “general-purpose” AI systems. skip past newsletter promotion Sign up to TechScape Free weekly newsletter Alex Hern's weekly dive in to how technology is shaping our lives Enter your email address Sign up Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy . We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. after newsletter promotion There will be a two-tiered approach. Under the first tier, all model developers will need to comply with EU copyright law and provide detailed summaries of the content used to train the model. It is unclear how already-trained models will be able to comply, and some are already under legal pressure. The New York Times is suing OpenAI and Getty Images is suing StabilityAI, alleging copyright infringement. Open-source models, which are freely available to the public, unlike “closed” models like ChatGPT’s GPT-4, will be exempt from the copyright requirement. A tougher tier is reserved for models that pose a “systemic risk” – based on an assessment of their more human-like “intelligence” – and is expected to include chatbots and image generators. The measures for this tier include reporting serious incidents caused by the models, such as death or breach of fundamental rights, and conducting “adversarial testing”, where experts attempt to bypass a model’s safeguards. What does it mean for deepfakes? People, companies or public bodies that issue deepfakes have to disclose whether the content has been artificially generated or manipulated. If it is done for “evidently” artistic, creative or satirical work, it still needs to be flagged, but in an “appropriate manner that does not hamper the display or enjoyment of the work”. Text produced by chatbots that informs the public “on matters of public interest” needs to be flagged as AI-made, but not where it has undergone a process of human review or editorial control – which exempts content that has had human oversight. Developers of AI systems also need to ensure that their output can be detected as AI-made, by watermarking or otherwise flagging the material. What do AI and tech companies think? The bill has received a mixed response. The largest tech companies are publicly supportive of the legislation in principle, while wary of the specifics. Amazon said it was committed to collaborating with the EU “to support the safe, secure and responsible development of AI technology”, but Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta warned against overregulation. “It is critical we don’t lose sight of AI’s huge potential to foster European innovation and enable competition, and openness is key here,” the company’s head of EU affairs said. In private, responses have been more critical. One senior figure at a US company warned that the EU had set a limit for the computing power used to train AI models that is much lower than similar proposals in the US. Models trained with more power than 10 to the power of 25 “flops”, a measure of computing power, will be hit with burdensome requirements to prove they don’t create system risks. This could prompt European companies to simply up stakes and move west to avoid EU restrictions. What are the punishments under the act? Fines will range from €7.5m or 1.5% of a company’s total worldwide turnover – whichever is higher – for giving incorrect information to regulators, to €15m or 3% of worldwide turnover for breaching certain provisions of the act, such as transparency obligations, to €35m, or 7% of turnover, for deploying or developing banned AI tools. There will be more proportionate fines for smaller companies and startups. The obligations will come into effect after 12 months, so at some point next year, once the act becomes law, prohibition of certain categories comes into force after six months. Providers and deployers of high-risk systems have three years to comply. There will also be a new European AI office that will set standards and be the main oversight body for GPAI models.
Florida citrus capital was top destination for US movers last year 2024-03-14 04:24:41+00:00 - ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — More people moved to a county rich with citrus groves located between two of Florida’s most populous metro areas than to any other county in the U.S. last year, according to estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. More than 29,300 people moved last year to the county between Tampa and Orlando, two metro areas where housing has grown increasingly pricey and the county is considered a cheaper alternative. In short order, Polk County has come to have fewer orange groves along Interstate 4 and more subdivisions for local service workers as well as distribution warehouses for on-demand deliveries for residents in both metropolitan areas. Almost all the growth in Polk County — 88% — consisted of people moving from another part of the U.S. rather than from abroad, according to the 2023 population estimates. “Subdivision growth has been springing up and it happens in such a manner that you don’t always notice it. But when you are stuck in traffic, that’s when you really pay attention that it’s going on,” Matt Joyner, a seventh-generation Polk County resident, said about the influx of new residents. Only four other counties — Harris and Montgomery counties in metro Houston; Collin County in metro Dallas; and Maricopa County, home to Phoenix — grew by more people, thanks to their higher numbers of natural increase, or births outnumbering deaths. Harris County, which is home to Houston, grew by almost 54,000 people, the most of any county last year, with about two-thirds of the growth coming from births outpacing deaths. That natural increase of almost 34,700 people was the highest in the nation. Despite having an influx of thousands of new residents from abroad, and births outpacing deaths, some of the most populous U.S. counties also lost the most residents due to their moving to other counties last year, a trend that accelerated at the start of the decade with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Leading the way was Los Angeles County, with 56,000 fewer residents. Three counties representing the boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx in New York City followed, with population losses of 28,300 people, 26,300 people and 25,300 people, respectively. However, the outflows from these large counties last year were substantially smaller than they were in 2022. New York City officials, though, believe the Census Bureau’s estimates don’t account for the influx of tens of thousands of asylum seekers last year. The city rented out entire hotels to house migrants and also put cots in schools and temporarily housed people in tents, a cruise ship terminal and a former police academy building. As many as 50,000 people were overlooked in the city’s shelters, according to city officials, who plan to challenge the estimates to the Census Bureau. “We wanted to flag it,” said Casey Berkovitz, press secretary for New York’s Department of City Planning. “Once you account for this underestimate ... the year marked a return to pre-pandemic levels.” In the most popular destinations for immigrants — counties in South Florida and counties that are home to Houston, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Jose — international migration grew by double digits year-over-year. The estimates don’t distinguish between legal immigration and illegal immigration, so it’s impossible to know if any of the growth came from unlawful border crossings. Arrests for illegal crossings hit a record high in December but fell by half in January. In Miami-Dade County, there were almost 54,500 new residents from outside the U.S., the highest in the nation last year and an almost 40% increase over the previous year. The international migration offset the departure of more than 47,000 residents who left Miami-Dade County for other U.S. counties. Among metro areas, which combine counties having social and economic connections, the Dallas metro area had the biggest growth last year — more than 152,000 residents — and surpassed 8 million residents for the first time. That growth was followed by metro Houston, with almost an additional 140,000 residents, and metro Atlanta, with an increase of more than 68,000 people. Metro Atlanta jumped two spots from last year to become the sixth most populous metro area, with 6.3 million residents. It is surpassed only by metro New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Houston. With more than 62,000 acres of citrus groves, Polk County is one of the leading producers of oranges in Florida. The state’s citrus industry in recent years has been squeezed between a fast-spreading bacteria that has attacked the health of trees all over the state and relentless growth that has spilled over as its metro areas have expanded. Despite that, Polk County has held onto its citrus heritage. Most of the growth has been concentrated in the northeastern part of the county, just a few miles from Walt Disney World in metro Orlando. But many of the citrus growers there who sold their land to subdivision builders have just moved to the southern part of the county, where citrus groves are still plentiful, said Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, a growers’ advocacy group. New residents to Polk County have something picturesque to see if they drive around the county’s groves right now — white flowers on citrus trees and a sweet aroma in the air. “Everywhere you go right now, the groves are snow white and the smell is sweet,” Joyner said. “It reminds you of the old days.” ___ Follow Mike Schneider on X, formerly known as Twitter: @MikeSchneiderAP.
Biden heads to the Michigan county emerging as the swing state’s top bellwether 2024-03-14 04:15:29+00:00 - SAGINAW, Mich. (AP) — Hurley Coleman Jr.'s parents were drawn to Michigan from the South by the promise of middle-class jobs in the booming automotive industry, an origin story shared by many African American families in Saginaw. Mass layoffs beginning in the late 20th century precipitated a dramatic decline in Saginaw’s population and economy, accompanied by a sharp rise in political turmoil within the city and throughout the region around it. This unrest peaked in 2016, mirroring the trend set off by economic stress in many Rust Belt cities, when the area voted Republican for the first time in decades and helped Donald Trump win the state. “There was unrest in so many corners, in so many ways and it just happened that you had a candidate who was irascible enough to be able to tap into that unrest,” said Coleman. “There are a lot of people who still have that unrest, but they’re paying attention now.” Turning Saginaw County blue again in 2020 — by a margin of 303 votes — contributed to Joe Biden’s success in securing the critical “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all pivotal in Trump’s previous victory as well. Leaders in both parties have said that it will be next to impossible for either presidential candidate to win the White House this year without winning Michigan. Now, Biden faces the challenge of persuading voters there to grant him another term, a task he hopes to tackle during his visit to Saginaw Thursday afternoon. The visit is part of a two-day swing through Wisconsin and Michigan that started Wednesday as the president looks to create momentum for his reelection campaign after clinching the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night. “President Joe Biden knows that if there is a place in America that he can tell his story to a people that need to hear it, Saginaw is that typical place,” said Coleman, a pastor who is planning to help Biden in his reelection bid. Saginaw, a Democratic stronghold, is encircled by predominantly Republican areas within the larger county. Described as a microcosm of the entire state, Saginaw County is the only Michigan county to have voted for the winning presidential candidate in the last four elections. In that respect it has largely replaced Macomb County north of Detroit as the go-to destination for political consultants and media looking to take the temperature of what might well be the ultimate swing state, with Macomb sliding steadily further into the Republican camp. The Saginaw area boasts a large number of union-affiliated voters, a demographic that Biden has targeted in his reelection campaign. He has received multiple key union endorsements even as Trump lays claim to being the candidate of choice for working people despite many union leaders saying his first term showed otherwise. The 44,000-person city at the heart of the county is also home to a significant Black community, comprising 46% of Saginaw’s residents. Energizing this demographic could be pivotal in November as Biden’s campaign navigates challenges in other regions of the state. “I think that the president recognizes the importance of getting into a community as diverse as Saginaw and having the conversation and having the face-to-face time with folks,” said Michigan Democratic Party chair Lavora Barnes. Over 100,000 Democratic voters in Michigan opted to vote “uncommitted” in the state’s Feb. 27 primary in what had been pushed by activists as a protest vote against Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. Top Biden advisors, both from the campaign and the White House, have traveled frequently over the past several months to places like Dearborn, a Detroit suburb with the nation’s highest concentration of Arab Americans, in their efforts to win back what had been a reliably Democratic constituency. But some Michigan Democrats in recent weeks have cautioned the party about overlooking restlessness within a significantly larger and politically influential demographic: Black voters. Biden’s support among Black voters has waned considerably since he assembled his winning coalition four years ago, when he was backed by 91% of Black voters nationwide, according to AP VoteCast. His approval rating among Black adults is 42% in the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, a substantial drop from the first year of his presidency. Biden also is working to energize Black voters in the key swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Wayne County Executive Warren Evans was among the 13% of Democratic voters who voted “uncommitted” in Michigan’s primary, but for a different reason than the one pushed by activists. He said he withheld his support to make a point to the Michigan Democratic Party that they are “not doing the things that they need to do to engage significant portions of the African American community.” “We don’t see these programs and things that are talked about trickling down to us,” said Evans. “We don’t feel invested in. The philosophical stuff that you might hear in a speech, we’re not feeling that.” Saginaw resident Jeffery Bulls shares Evans’ sentiment, opting not to vote at all in the state’s primary rather than vote “uncommitted.” Once a Democratic voter, Bulls said that both Biden and Trump have proven to be “more of the same.” He said he “probably will be skipping that top spot on the ballot” in November. “We look around our community and 10, 20, 30 years go by and the same blight is here, the same joblessness is here, the same issues are here,” said Bulls. “Nothing has changed. That starts to click after a while and then you get cynical.” The city of Saginaw’s poverty rate of nearly 35% is more than double Michigan’s average of 13%, as per the latest U.S. Census data. Average income in the city is also half that of the state’s average, though unemployment in the county has declined steadily since Biden first took office. While Black voters are unlikely to support Trump in significant numbers in November, a lack of turnout could prove just as fatal for Biden’s reelection campaign. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by fewer than 11,000 votes, a thin margin attributed in part to reduced turnout in predominantly Black areas like Detroit’s Wayne County, where Hillary Clinton received far fewer votes than Barack Obama did in previous elections. Biden reclaimed much of that support four years ago, when he defeated Trump in Michigan by a 154,000-vote margin, but he has work to do. Detroit, which holds a population that is nearly 78% Black, saw a 12% turnout in the Feb. 27 primary, almost half that of the 23% total turnout in the state. Biden’s team is keenly aware of the pushback his reelection has encountered in certain minority communities in Michigan. Thursday’s visit is Biden’s second in six weeks, and his team is establishing over 15 field offices across Michigan, including Saginaw. The campaign has been “working to ensure that Black Michiganders are aware of all the promises made and kept by” Biden, said Eddie McDonald, senior adviser for Biden-Harris in Michigan, in a statement. He added that the campaign is “not taking a single voter for granted — especially when the stakes are this high.” “The fundamental choice in this election is between Joe Biden, who is fighting to make life better for Black voters, and Donald Trump, who drove up Black unemployment, tried to rip away health care access, and attempted to slash funding for HBCUs,” said McDonald. “That difference is stark and we’re going to make sure Michiganders know it.”
Women blast through gender barriers in Colombia’s emerald mines, but struggle to emerge from poverty 2024-03-14 04:09:02+00:00 - COSCUEZ, Colombia (AP) — Deep inside mountain tunnels where the heat is so intense it causes headaches, women with power tools are chipping away at boulders in search of gems. They have opened a difficult path for themselves in Colombia’s emerald industry, a sector long dominated by men. The lack of job opportunities, combined with the hope of a find that will make them rich, has pushed the women into mining. Colombian emeralds are known around the world for their quality and the best can be sold for thousands of dollars, though most people in the industry aren’t wealthy. Emerald miners line uo to enter the tunnels of an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. After they enter in a single file, they branch off in different directions and head into tunnels where each person has a designated area to drill. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) “There are months or years in which I don’t even make $250” from the emerald mines, said Yaneth Forero, one of the women at a small, informal mine near the town of Coscuez, where production has long been centered. “But we continue to struggle here for the dream of having a home with tiles on the floors, a place that smells good and where no one can kick me out,” she said. She lives in a precarious hillside house where the walls are unpainted and the floor is made of cement. Some of the biggest emeralds in the world have been mined in Colombia, including one weighing 3 pounds (1.36 kilograms) that broke the world record in 1995. In Coscuez, rumors circulate that one miner recently found an emerald that sold for $177,000, and left the ramshackle town forever. In 2022, Colombian emerald exports were worth $122 million, according to the national federation of emerald companies. The gems are one of the nation’s most iconic products, and are sold in jewelry shops in cities like Cartagena and Bogotá. But most emerald profits go to merchants and large companies that have invested millions of dollars in technologies that help them find the most valuable stones. A trader inspects a piece of emerald in Coscuez Colombia, Friday, March 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) Workers at small, unregulated mines like Forero, who still use dynamite sticks to open tunnels, have a slim chance of finding the emeralds that can change someone’s destiny. In her home outside Coscuez, Forero keeps some small, opaque emeralds that she has gathered over the past three months. She reckons that they are not worth more than $76 in all. Her earnings are not enough to maintain her four children or help her father, who has developed a respiratory illness after working in emerald mines for decades and needs an oxygen tank to breathe. Emerald miner Yaneth Forero, 52, stands at the entrance to an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. “There are months or years in which I don’t even make $250” from the emerald mines," said Forero, “But we continue to struggle here for the dream of having a home with tiles on the floors, a place that smells good and where no one can kick me out.” (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) Emerald miner Yaneth Forero, 52, hydrates during a break outside an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) So she also works random jobs to make ends meet like washing uniforms, ironing clothes and cleaning homes. The 52-year-old said she has struggled to leave this way of life because the economy in Coscuez revolves around mining, and there are few other opportunities. Working in the mines is tougher for women. Once they are done drilling in deep tunnels and sifting through rocks, they must care for their children and do domestic tasks that men are often reluctant to do. Female emerald miners chat after work at an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) Flor Marina Morales said she started to work in the mines around Coscuez because she needed to provide for her kids. She said she used to arrive home from the mines at 3 a.m. and stay awake to make breakfast for her children and send them to school. Morales’ children are now in university studying psychology and law. “I’m glad they have a different outlook,” she said. “Mining is exhausting, and in this job you put up with a lot of hunger, cold and lack of sleep.” To enter the small mines around Coscuez, women wear rubber boots and helmets and carry drills just like the men. Emerald miner Janeth Paez, 45, stands inside the tunnel of an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) After they enter in a single file, they branch off in different directions and head into tunnels where each person has a designated area to drill. The rocks that break off the walls are carried outside in carts, washed and sifted through. This kind of involvement by women was unthinkable a few decades ago in Colombia. Older villagers said that men previously barred women from approaching the mines because they believed that if women were around, the emeralds would hide. “That was pure machismo, they just didn’t want us to work,” said Carmen Alicia Ávila, a 57-year-old miner who has been in the industry for almost four decades. She said that between the 1960s and 1990s, when miners attacked each other for control of the area in a period known as the “green wars,” women who attempted to work in mines were threatened, and some were raped. A female miner holds a fleck of an emerald on her fingertip, while working at an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) Wearing a headlamp, Margot Avila, 45, uses a hammer and chisel to loosen rocks from the tunnel of an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) Ávila said she started to work at the mines when she was 19, but she was not allowed to enter the shafts. Instead, she sifted through rocks picked by the men. “Women were only allowed into the shafts two decades ago” she said. The area has become less violent after a series of peace deals brokered by the Catholic church. Many miners who were behind the violence have died. Some sold off their properties to international companies as finding valuable emeralds became tougher and required more money. Currently there are 200 women working in the mines around Coscuez, according to the local association of female miners. Some work alongside men, while others work in five small mines owned by women, where only female miners are allowed. Because the tunnels are so small, the women take turns working inside them. Emerald miners arrive on motorbikes to an informal mine near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) Like others who work in small mines, they are trying to get the government to officially recognize them as artisanal miners. That would give them the right to legally exploit the mines. It would also give them more stability and make it easier to get loans. Colombia’s government has already granted more than 900 titles to companies and individuals to exploit emerald mines. But according to the National Mining Agency, 576 requests are still under review, including those from small-scale miners. Luz Myriam Duarte Ramírez, president of the National Federation of Mines, said that her organization is backing the efforts of the Coscuez miners to be registered as artisanal miners, as well as the legalization of the five mines owned by women. Despite these efforts to improve conditions, Forero said she doesn’t want to stay in the industry for long. She said that if she gets lucky and finds a valuable gem, she will buy a house and set up a small business to keep her away from the hot, dark tunnels where she has labored for years. “Life is tough in these mines, even if some people have found emeralds that were sold in Dubai,” Forero said. “Sometimes I sit in those tunnels and talk to God. But unfortunately, it seems like we haven’t had a good connection.” Deisy Alexa Gallo hauls a sack of rocks, drilled from an informal mine, to be washed and sifted through in search of emeralds, near the town of Coscuez, Colombia, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. .(AP Photo/Fernando Vergara) ____ Follow AP’s coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america
Can Europe Save Forests Without Killing Jobs in Malaysia? 2024-03-14 04:01:41+00:00 - The European Union’s upcoming ban on imports linked to deforestation has been hailed as a “gold standard” in climate policy: a meaningful step to protect the world’s forests, which help remove planet-killing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The law requires traders to trace the origins of a head-spinning variety of products — beef to books, chocolate and charcoal, lipstick and leather. To the European Union, the mandate, set to take effect next year, is a testament to the bloc’s role as a global leader on climate change. The policy, though, has gotten caught in fierce crosscurrents about how to navigate the economic and political trade-offs demanded by climate change in a world where power is shifting and international institutions are fracturing. Developing countries have expressed outrage — with Malaysia and Indonesia among the most vocal. Together, the two nations supply 85 percent of the world’s palm oil, one of seven critical commodities covered by the European Union’s ban. And they maintain that the law puts their economies at risk.
TikTok's fate in the U.S. hangs in the balance. What would the sale of the popular app mean? 2024-03-14 02:25:00+00:00 - TikTok could soon be inaccessible to its more than a hundred million users in the U.S., after the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday voted to pass a law forcing the app to be sold by its Chinese parent company or face a stateside ban. Much like other social media apps, including those owned by U.S. companies, concerns abound over the vast amount of personal user data collected by TikTok's Beijing-based parent company, ByteDance, posing a national security threat. Under the proposed legislation, ByteDance would have six months to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban. If the app is effectively banned in the U.S., it would likely take time before TikTok disappeared given that ByteDance would be expected to exhaust all of its legal options to challenge the law. Would a sale solve the issue? Not entirely, but it would mark a step in the right direction, according to cybersecurity experts. "It would only solve the first problem, which is the accessibility of Americans' data to Chinese authorities," Ivan Tsarynny, a cybersecurity expert who testified before the House Committee to recommend that TikTok either be sold or banned in the U.S., told CBS MoneyWatch. Still, a new owner of TikTok could illegally transfer users' data to the Chinese government, according to Tsarynny. "We'd have to make sure every person who has access to TikTok's data on Americans is accessing it for the right reasons, and is not part of a covert operation," he said. Engineers, data scientists and other workers at a hypothetical American parent company with direct access to users' data would have to be rigorously vetted "to ensure they are using the data for legitimate reasons and not stealing it and siphoning it back to China," Tsarynny added. With House lawmakers approving the bill, called the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, some analysts expect the Senate to follow suit and pass the measure. "The bipartisan nature and size of the House vote make Senate passage more likely than not," Blair Levin, a telecom analyst with New Street Research, told investors in a report. If ByteDance does sell TikTok, U.S. users could seamlessly continue to use the app. "It could be very non-intrusive, and users may not even notice that ownership of the company has changed," Tsarynny said. "And in the mid- to long-term, a sale has a very strong possibility of eliminating China as a threat." Yet some experts note that all social media companies — including U.S.-owned ones — pose some security risks. "Any company that collects this amount of sensitive, personal information from this many Americans is going to pose data privacy and security risks. So there are still many other avenues for bad actors and foreign governments to access this info," said Caitlin Chin-Rothmann, a researcher of the impact of technology on geopolitics and society at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "A sale would solve the question of ownership, but wouldn't necessarily make personal information any safer," she added. Any deal to sell TikTok would also face challenges given the potential cost and regulatory hurdles. "Any company that buys TikTok is going to have to be very well-resourced, very wealthy, and will need a strategic interest in purchasing TikTok without raising antitrust concerns around mergers and acquisitions, Chin-Rothmann said. "There's a good chance a deal wouldn't go through." Under the proposed legislation, the alternative to ByteDance selling TikTok would be its being banned from app stores in the U.S. President Biden has said he will sign the bill if it passes the Senate, but it remains to be seen whether a nationwide ban of the hugely popular app — if it came to that — would be possible. Previous efforts to do so have been blocked by legal challenges and concerns over free speech. Levin of New Street Research noted that social media companies have previously invoked the First Amendment to convince courts to overturn state and federal efforts to restrict how they operate. Although such a legal challenge would be a "close call," he said, "there is a better than even chance the courts will find it violates the First Amendment." What a ban would mean for TikTok users If TikTok were banned in the U.S., the more than 100 million users who have downloaded the app would likely still be able to access it. New users would also potentially be able to download it using a virtual private network. Even with the app's removal from app stores, experts think that TikTok's devoted and resourceful U.S. fans would still find ways to continue using it. "It would be inconvenient and harm its reach, but realistically there'd probably still be some way to access it," said Justin Cappos, a professor of computer science and engineering at New York University's Tandon School of Engineering. "Tech savvy young people would find ways to circumvent the ban and TikTok might still subsist in some form in the U.S. market," Gabriel Wildau, senior vice president and China political risk analyst at Teneo, told CBS MoneyWatch. "Its ban from app stores would hobble the app, but it wouldn't be a fatal blow."
Can women really "have it all"? Lily Allen says kids "ruined" career, highlighting that challenge 2024-03-14 01:52:00+00:00 - Singer Lily Allen is garnering attention for comments she made on the challenges of balancing a career with motherhood. "I never really have a strategy when it comes to career, but yes, my children ruined my career," Allen said, laughing, on the Radio Times podcast Tuesday. "I mean, I love them and they complete me, but in terms of pop stardom, totally ruined it." Allen, 38, who shares two daughters with ex-husband Sam Cooper, said she chose to step back from her career to focus on raising her kids. "It really annoys me when people say you can have it all because, quite frankly, you can't," the "Smile" singer said. "Some people choose their career over their children and that's their prerogative." Lily Allen at Milan Fashion Week on Sept. 24, 2023 in Milan, Italy. Getty Images It's a dilemma many women in the U.S. are all too familiar with. "The concept that we can do it all, I think many of us have realized is not a realistic concept," Holly Wilbanks, the founder of the Wilbanks Consulting Group, recently told CBS News Pittsburgh. "Instead, what women today are trying to do is figure out what's important to them, what they value, and how they can structure their focus and their time around those things — and quite frankly, for a lot of women, that means making choices." And those choices look different for everyone. "Nowadays, being successful means being so many different things to so many different women. It's very subjective," Wilbanks says. "(Some) women think climbing the ladder is success, other women feel caregiving for their children or a sick loved one is this definition of success. So quite frankly, it's all over the spectrum." For many parents, of course, working isn't a choice but a necessity. "Can women have it all? Nobody can have it all. Can women be incredible moms and successful professionals? Absolutely," says Juliet A. Williams, a professor in the department of gender studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. "We don't want to fall into this habit of valorizing a stay-at-home lifestyle that is not accessible to everyone and even some people to whom it is accessible have chosen against it." Plus, "being at home with their kids is not the same thing as being a great parent," Williams points out, warning against glorifying or demonizing a woman's choice (or lack thereof) between work, kids or doing her best at both. Environment plays a role, too. "Some countries and contexts make it much more difficult to lead a fulfilling life that includes both work and family," Williams says, adding the United States in 2024 is "one of the most difficult." "But places like England, where I believe Allen (is from) and even others in Western Europe that are seeing a rolling back of the welfare state, should expect more and more people to be frustrated by that," she adds. The challenge of handling both work and kids became even more apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic, where mothers in particular were put in an impossible situation. "They're doing their own job, their child care worker's job, and their children's teacher's jobs," Professor Joan C. Williams, founding director of the Center for WorkLife Law at the University of California's Hastings College of Law, told CBS "Sunday Morning" in 2020. And while plenty of fathers struggled during COVID too, a study at the time showed women were almost three times more likely than men not to be working due to child care demands because of the pandemic. Experts say it boils down to support. "Women are in the workplace now. And it's really about, if they're choosing to be in the workplace, how do we support them there? If they're choosing to be at home, how do we support them there?" Wilbanks says. Williams points to a need for greater public investment in child and after-school care as well as a shift in the image of an "ideal worker" being somebody whose commitment is to the job with no other responsibilities — since that "structurally advantages men over women in society where caretaking is associated with gender even to this day." "We really want to work as a society to create more social support for people to navigate those challenges rather than acting like there are three easy answers or clear pathways to get there," she says.
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. retail sales in sharp focus 2024-03-14 01:33:00+00:00 - This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here . Stocks end mixed Wall Street ended mixed Wednesday, dragged down by tech stocks as investors await key updates on retail sales and producer prices. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.19% and 0.54%, respectively. The 30-stock Dow, on the other hand, added 0.1%. Palantir CEO on backing Israel Palantir CEO Alex Karp said his outspoken pro-Israel views have caused staff to leave the company and that he expects to see more walk out. "If you have a position that does not cost you ever to lose an employee, it's not a position," Karp said in an interview on CNBC. House passes TikTok bill The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that could lead to a ban against TikTok if its Chinese owner, ByteDance, doesn't sell its stake in the popular video app. The bill now heads to the Senate where it faces steep hurdles as senators are divided over the legislation. EV hype may be over The euphoria around electric vehicles is waning. Ford Motor, General Motors and Mercedes-Benz are some of the major automakers that are scaling back or delaying their EV plans. This comes as the sector sees lower rates of growth and a slower pace of adoption than previously expected. [PRO] China stocks worth the risk Chinese stocks are a "risk worth taking," said Jason Hsu, chairman and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors. He noted they are "trading at the cheapest" while offering "a big discount," and sees huge opportunities to play the market.
Many countries are bouncing back from the pandemic but the poorest are not, UN says 2024-03-14 01:19:12+00:00 - UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Many countries are bouncing back from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the poorest are not and a significant number are seeing their conditions deteriorate, the U.N. Development Program said Wednesday. Achim Steiner, head of the agency, said that after two decades during which rich and poor countries were coming closer in terms of development, the finding is “a very strong warning signal” that nations are now drifting apart. The Human Development Index that the agency has produced since 1990 is projected to reach record highs in 2023 after steep declines during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. But development in half of the world’s poorest countries remains below 2019 pre-pandemic levels, the report said. “It’s a rich person’s versus a poor person’s world in which we are seeing development unfolding in very unequal, partially incomplete ways,” Steiner said at a news conference. “Why does this matter? Not only because it creates more vulnerability, it creates also more misery and protracted poverty, growing inequality.” The growing inequalities are compounded by the concentration of economic wealth, the report said. It pointed to almost 40% of global trade in goods concentrated in three or fewer countries. And it said the stock market value of the three largest tech companies in 2021 — Amazon, Apple and Microsoft — surpassed the gross domestic product of more than 90% of the 193 U.N. member nations that year. Steiner said the world’s nations should be joining forces to focus on major threats in the 21st century, especially climate change, the next pandemic and the emergence of a digital economy and artificial intelligence. But instead, he warned, there is increasing division and growing frustration and polarization. He said a significant response has been the emergence of populism, which is anti-elite and hostile to international cooperation. He said that “is increasingly dividing societies, radicalizing the political discourse, and essentially turning more and more people against each other.” The report says advancing global collective action to tackle the world’s major challenges is hindered by an emerging “democracy paradox” — 90% of people worldwide endorse democracy but for the first time over half the respondents in a global survey expressed support for leaders that risk undermining the foundations of democracy. Territorial conflicts will continue to crop up, but the threats to human security in the 21st century will more often require being able to collaborate, Steiner said. “We are driving ourselves deeper and deeper into a condition where our ability to solve problems is actually being compromised,” he said. “You will not stop climate change with missiles. You will not stop the next pandemic at your border with a tank, and you’re certainly not going to stop cybercrime with missiles.” Steiner said it is important to dial down the temperature, misperceptions and misinformation “because they’re actually being weaponized in turning people against each other.” He said there also has to be a very careful look “at where inequality has become so extreme that it actually erodes the political willingness to cooperate.” The report calls for more spending on global public goods that benefit all people, including to stabilize climate and the planet, to harness new technologies to improve human development, and to improve the global financial system to benefit low-income countries. The agency’s Human Development Index measures key issues for a long and healthy life, for gaining knowledge and for achieving a decent standard of living. Based on the latest figures from 2022, the 10 places with the highest human development scores are Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Hong Kong, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Ireland tied for seventh, Singapore, and Australia and the Netherlands tied for 10th place. The United States tied with Luxembourg for 20th place. The 10 countries with the lowest human development were Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Yemen, Burundi, Mali, Chad, Niger, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Somalia. All but Yemen are in Africa.
In Haiti, a police officer-turned-gangster is trying to seize control of the country 2024-03-14 00:56:00+00:00 - Jimmy Chérizier, the former Haitian police officer-turned-gangster leading the latest violent campaign to seize control of the country, is nicknamed “Barbeque.” Chérizier insists it’s because his mother operated a fried chicken stand in the slums of Port-au-Prince. But critics say it’s a moniker Chérizier earned after staging multiple massacres in the nation’s capital from 2018 to 2020 that, according to the United Nations, left dozens of people dead, many of whom were burned alive when their homes were deliberately torched. Jimmy Cherizier in Port-au-Prince, on Oct. 22, 2021. Odelyn Joseph / AP file “I would never massacre people in the same social class as me,” Chérizier said in a 2019 interview with The Associated Press. "I was born next door to La Saline. I live in the ghetto. I know what ghetto life is." But clad in what’s become his trademark bullet-proof vest, Chérizier has made it clear in more recent interviews that he's willing to shed a lot of blood to achieve his goals. “We won’t lie to people, saying we have a peaceful revolution," he told the Reuters news agency on Tuesday. "We do not have a peaceful revolution. We are starting a bloody revolution in the country." One of the first casualties of Chérizier's bloody revolution was Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who said Tuesday that he would resign and his government would dissolve once a transitional council had been set up. Henry's announcement came after Chérizier and a coalition of armed gangs loyal to him known as G9 seized control of large swaths of Port-au-Prince. His forces have laid siege to Haiti's main international airport, traded fire with troops at government sites, and sparked a mass jailbreak last week from the National Penitentiary in Port-Au-Prince that freed almost 4,000 gang members. A team of Marines has been dispatched to shore-up security at the U.S. Embassy. While Henry's departure was a key demand of G9, Chérizier has given no sign that he intends to cede power to anybody else. In interviews, Chérizier has likened himself to Martin Luther King Jr., Malcolm X, Fidel Castro, even Robin Hood. He is also an admirer of Haitian dictator Francois “Papa Doc” Duvalier, who ruled the country with an iron hand from 1957 to 1971. “It’s clear that he has a messianic vision of his role in Haiti,” Robert Fatton Jr., a professor of politics at the University of Virginia and an expert on Haiti, told NBC News recently. “He presents himself as such.” Chérizier is also closely allied with the Haitian Tèt Kale Party (PHTK), one of the most powerful political parties in the country, according to InSight Crime, a nonprofit that covers organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. While Henry remains marooned in Puerto Rico and unable to return home because of the latest outbreak of violence, Chérizier has been filling the power vacuum. Haiti's latest strongman Believed to be 48 or 49, Chérizier is from the impoverished Port-au-Prince neighborhood of Lower Delmas. The youngest of eight children, he was 5 when his father died and his mother ran the chicken stand to support the family. Before Chérizier became the latest strongman vying to take power in Haiti, he was an officer in the Haitian National Police, according to a U.N. sanctions notice dated Oct. 21, 2022. While still serving in the HNP, Chérizier “planned and participated in the November 2018 deadly attack against civilians in a Port-au-Prince neighborhood known as La Saline.” At least 71 people were killed, more than 400 houses were destroyed “and at least seven women were raped by armed gangs,” the U.N. sanctions notice said. It was Haiti’s worst massacre in a decade. Chérizier was fired and a warrant was issued for his arrest, local Haitian media reported. And for that, he was branded in 2020 a human rights abuser by the U.S. Treasury Department. But Chérizier managed to avoid arrest. Over the next two years, Chérizier led “armed groups in coordinated, brutal attacks” in various Port-au-Prince neighborhoods “in which civilians were killed and houses were set on fire,” the U.N. said. The weapons, vehicles and police uniforms that Chérizier used to stage these massacres came, according to InSight Crime, from top officials in the government of President Jovenel Moïse, who was assassinated in 2021. Since Oct. 11, 2022, Chérizier and his forces have been blocking fuel supplies from the country's largest terminal from getting to hard-pressed Haitians. “His actions have directly contributed to the economic paralysis and humanitarian crisis in Haiti,” the U.N. said.
Deepfakes in an election year — is Asia ready to handle misinformation campaigns? 2024-03-14 00:50:00+00:00 - 2024 is set up to be the biggest global election year in history. It coincides with the rapid rise in deepfakes. In APAC alone, there was a surge in deepfakes by 1530% from 2022 to 2023, according to a Sumsub report. Fotografielink | Istock | Getty Images Ahead of the Indonesian elections on Feb. 14, a video of late Indonesian president Suharto advocating for the political party he once presided over went viral. The AI-generated deepfake video that cloned his face and voice racked up 4.7 million views on X alone. This was not a one-off incident. In Pakistan, a deepfake of former prime minister Imran Khan emerged around the national elections, announcing his party was boycotting them. Meanwhile, in the U.S., New Hampshire voters heard a deepfake of President Joe Biden's asking them to not vote in the presidential primary. Deepfakes of politicians are becoming increasingly common, especially with 2024 set up to be the biggest global election year in history. Reportedly, at least 60 countries and more than four billion people will be voting for their leaders and representatives this year, which makes deepfakes a matter of serious concern. watch now According to a Sumsub report in November, the number of deepfakes across the world rose by 10 times from 2022 to 2023. In APAC alone, deepfakes surged by 1,530% during the same period. Online media, including social platforms and digital advertising, saw the biggest rise in identity fraud rate at 274% between 2021 and 2023. Professional services, healthcare, transportation and video gaming were were also among industries impacted by identity fraud. Asia is not ready to tackle deepfakes in elections in terms of regulation, technology, and education, said Simon Chesterman, senior director of AI governance at AI Singapore. In its 2024 Global Threat Report, cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike reported that with the number of elections scheduled this year, nation-state actors including from China, Russia and Iran are highly likely to conduct misinformation or disinformation campaigns to sow disruption. "The more serious interventions would be if a major power decides they want to disrupt a country's election — that's probably going to be more impactful than political parties playing around on the margins," said Chesterman. Although several governments have tools (to prevent online falsehoods), the concern is the genie will be out of the bottle before there's time to push it back in. Simon Chesterman Senior director AI Singapore However, most deepfakes will still be generated by actors within the respective countries, he said. Carol Soon, principal research fellow and head of the society and culture department at the Institute of Policy Studies in Singapore, said domestic actors may include opposition parties and political opponents or extreme right wingers and left wingers. Deepfake dangers At the minimum, deepfakes pollute the information ecosystem and make it harder for people to find accurate information or form informed opinions about a party or candidate, said Soon. Voters may also be put off by a particular candidate if they see content about a scandalous issue that goes viral before it's debunked as fake, Chesterman said. "Although several governments have tools (to prevent online falsehoods), the concern is the genie will be out of the bottle before there's time to push it back in." "We saw how quickly X could be taken over by the deep fake pornography involving Taylor Swift — these things can spread incredibly quickly," he said, adding that regulation is often not enough and incredibly hard to enforce. "It's often too little too late." watch now Adam Meyers, head of counter adversary operations at CrowdStrike, said that deepfakes may also invoke confirmation bias in people: "Even if they know in their heart it's not true, if it's the message they want and something they want to believe in they're not going to let that go." Chesterman also said that fake footage which shows misconduct during an election such as ballot stuffing, could cause people to lose faith in the validity of an election. On the flip side, candidates may deny the truth about themselves that may be negative or unflattering and attribute that to deepfakes instead, Soon said. watch now Who should be responsible? There is a realization now that more responsibility needs to be taken on by social media platforms because of the quasi-public role they play, said Chesterman. In February, 20 leading tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, IBM as well as Artificial intelligence startup OpenAI and social media companies such as Snap, TikTok and X announced a joint commitment to combat the deceptive use of AI in elections this year. The tech accord signed is an important first step, said Soon, but its effectiveness will depend on implementation and enforcement. With tech companies adopting different measures across their platforms, a multi-prong approach is needed, she said. Tech companies will also have to be very transparent about the kinds of decisions that are made, for example, the kinds of processes that are put in place, Soon added. But Chesterman said it is also unreasonable to expect private companies to carry out what are essentially public functions. Deciding what content to allow on social media is a hard call to make, and companies may take months to decide, he said. watch now "We should not just be relying on the good intentions of these companies," Chesterman added. "That's why regulations need to be established and expectations need to be set for these companies." Towards this end, Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA), a non-profit, has introduced digital credentials for content, which will show viewers verified information such as the creator's information, where and when it was created, as well as whether generative AI was used to create the material. C2PA member companies include Adobe, Microsoft, Google and Intel. OpenAI has announced it will be implementing C2PA content credentials to images created with its DALL·E 3 offering early this year. “I think it’d be terrible if I said, ‘Oh yeah, I’m not worried. I feel great.’ Like, we’re gonna have to watch this relatively closely this year [with] super tight monitoring [and] super tight feedback.” Sam Altman CEO OpenAI