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Trump says Arizona abortion ruling went too far 2024-04-10 16:33:00+00:00 - Former President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the Arizona Supreme Court went too far in ruling the state's 160-year-old near-total abortion ban can be enforced. Trump made the comment while speaking to reporters after landing at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport ahead of a campaign fundraiser. "Yeah, they did," Trump said about the court's judges when asked if they went too far. "That'll be straightened out, and as you know it's all about states' rights." The former president predicted that Arizona's governor and others "are going to bring it back into reason." While he said the court overstepped, Trump also reiterated his position that the issue of abortion should be left up to states. "It's the will of the people," he said, adding that he would not sign a national abortion ban as president. Under the law from 1864, anyone who performs the procedure or helps a woman access that care could face felony charges and up to two to five years in prison. The law includes an exception to save the woman’s life. President Joe Biden's campaign said in response to Trump's remarks that the former president "owns the suffering and chaos happening right now, including in Arizona, because he proudly overturned Roe." "Trump lies constantly — about everything — but has one track record: banning abortion every chance he gets," Biden campaign communication director Michael Tyler said in a statement. "The guy who wants to be a dictator on day one will use every tool at his disposal to ban abortion nationwide, with or without Congress, and running away from reporters to his private jet like a coward doesn’t change that reality," Tyler said. During a stop at Chick-fil-A after his initial comments on the ruling, Trump was asked if doctors should be punished for performing abortions. "I’ll let that be to the states," he said. "You know everything we’re doing now is states and states' rights and what we wanted to do is get it back to the states because for 53 years it’s been a fight and now the states are handling it and some have handled it very well and the others will end up handling it very well." Trump's remarks come after he said Monday that abortion laws and policies should be controlled by individual states. He did not take a position, however, on the possibility of a national abortion ban that has been pushed by conservatives in Congress, including many of his allies. “My view is, now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land,” Trump said in a more than four-minute-long video posted on his Truth Social account. His position has drawn blowback from some Republicans, who have wanted Trump to promote the possibility of a national ban. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., for example, criticized Trump in a statement. “Dobbs does not require that conclusion legally and the pro-life movement has always been about the wellbeing of the unborn child — not geography,” he said. Some Arizona Republicans have distanced themselves from the ruling, including GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake who had previously called the statute “a great law.” Trump’s comments at the airport Wednesday came after he greeted a small crowd of supporters. While speaking to cameras, Trump blasted President Joe Biden and his leadership, saying that he has “abandoned Israel” and repeated a line he recently made. “Any Jewish person that votes for a Democrat or votes for Biden should have their head examined,” he said.
House Republicans are in chaos again as conservatives derail a key surveillance bill 2024-04-10 16:30:00+00:00 - WASHINGTON — A band of hard-right agitators, backed by former President Donald Trump, revolted against GOP leaders on Wednesday, blocking renewal of a powerful surveillance program that is set to expire next week and throwing the GOP-led House into chaos once again. Nineteen conservatives broke with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and his leadership team and voted down a "rule"; the vote was 193-228. It's yet another example of a minority of Republicans using the otherwise procedural vote to prevent the House from debating their own party's legislation. It marked the seventh time this Congress — and the fourth under Johnson — that Republicans have taken down their own rule, according to a review by NBC News. Given the party's minuscule margin, Wednesday's Republican revolt effectively derailed — for now — carefully crafted compromise legislation to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act's Section 702. After the vote, Johnson scheduled a special closed-door meeting of House Republicans for later Wednesday afternoon. It's unclear if Congress will be able to renew 702, which the administration says is a critical national security tool, before it expires on April 19. "We will regroup and reformulate another plan," Johnson told reporters. "We cannot allow Section 702 of FISA to expire. It's too important to national security." One option now is that the Senate could send the House a clean, short-term extension of FISA with no reforms. "It's a fact — if FISA goes down we'll likely extend current FISA. Stupid," said moderate Rep. Don Bacon, R-Iowa, a member of the Armed Services Committee. "They'll end up with the worst option." The current FISA tool allows the government to conduct targeted surveillance of foreign nationals, without needing to obtain a warrant, with a higher bar for targeted American citizens. The new House Republican bill calls for a number of reforms but doesn't go far enough in the eyes of privacy and civil liberties advocates, on both the right and left. Trump threw a wrench into things early Wednesday morning, posting on social media platform: "KILL FISA, IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME AND MANY OTHERS. THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN!!!” — an apparent reference to the FBI's bungled surveillance of former Trump aide Carter Page. "We are killing FISA. As written, it won’t make it off the floor," Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., wrote on X, responding to Trump. Two other Trump loyalists, Reps. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., also said before the vote they would cast no votes on the rule. "We're throwing our Constitution and our Bills or Rights away with this history of abuse. It needs to be on the scrap heap," Burchett said in an interview. "They broke the law before. What’s going to stop them from doing so again? We need to remove that tool." The contentious issue dominated a closed-door gathering of House Republicans on Wednesday morning. In that meeting, Johnson warned Republican lawmakers they would get jammed with a short-term FISA extension from the Senate, without the reforms included in the House GOP bill, if members vote down the rule, four sources told NBC News. He described that as the worst-case scenario because it would deny the Republicans the chance to make revisions to the law. After the meeting, Johnson reiterated to reporters that Section 702 cannot be allowed to lapse, calling the spying powers essential to protecting Americans. “We have to strike the balance government always does, you have to ... jealously guard the fundamental liberty of American people,” Johnson said. “You protect the liberty, but at the same time, you got to protect your security. And we can’t allow a critical tool like this to just expire and go out of use.” Although most Democrats and the White House support extending FISA, House Democrats don't intend to provide votes for the rule because of partisan language tucked into it. In addition to the FISA bill, the rule contains a Republican resolution on Israel that criticizes President Joe Biden for pressuring the country to change its war strategy after the strike on a World Central Kitchen aid convoy. “We have to reauthorize FISA. Unfortunately, the speaker has chosen to couple this rule vote with a bunch of other things,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar, of California, the No. 3 House Democrat. “It has partisan resolutions attached to it. And so I would not anticipate any Democrats supporting it.” While some Republicans are opposed to reauthorizing FISA outright, others are expected to support the rule in order to vote for a warrant requirement for the Section 702 program. Members of the House Intelligence Committee and the intelligence community warn that such a requirement could cripple the program. Backers of the House FISA bill have argued that without renewing Section 702, another major terror attack could occur on American soil. Families of 9/11 victims sent a letter to the speaker urging Congress to reauthorize Section 702, according to a copy of the letter obtained by NBC News. The letter, from 9/11 Families United, was circulated to House Republicans inside their weekly conference meeting Wednesday morning. “It is our belief that the failure to renew Section 702 would be detrimental to American national security and would put Americans at risk of new terrorist attacks,” the letter said. The push to curtail the government’s surveillance power has sparked an extraordinary left-right coalition. The Rules Committee authorized a House floor vote on an amendment to curtail warrantless surveillance of U.S. persons under the FISA law, written by Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz.; Pramila Jaypal, D-Wash.; Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y.; Warren Davidson, R-Ohio; Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif.; and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio. Jordan, the chair of the Judiciary Committee, appeared on conservative host Mark Levin’s show and pressed his case for changing the current FISA law. “Gotta have a warrant requirement,” Jordan said. “I’m all for surveilling foreigners who want to do us harm. But when you do that you inevitably pick up a number of Americans, many times innocently. And if you’re gonna go search that database, you got to go through a separate equal branch of government and get a probable cause warrant. That is how it works.” The White House "strongly supports" the House's FISA bill, said national security adviser Jake Sullivan. But the administration is opposed to the Jordan amendment, which, Sullivan says, would "rebuild a wall around and thus block access to already lawfully collected information in the possession of the US government." “I can’t imagine working in today’s counterterrorism environment without FISA Section 702, and I don’t know how we would replace it if it were gone," added Christy Abizaid, director of the National Counterterrorism Center. "Our No. 1 mission is to protect the United States homeland from a diverse array of threats, and speed is of the essence to fulfill this mission.”
The highs and lows of an It-shoe: how Adidas Sambas took over the world 2024-04-10 16:18:00+00:00 - On the train from Peckham in south London to Dalston in east London the other day, it became hard to ignore: everywhere I looked were Adidas Sambas. White ones. Black ones. Those Wales Bonner ones with the pony fur and leopard print. Little silver ones. Black leather ones with studs. The humble Adidas Samba, once the reserve of football fans, Britpop kids and the odd skateboarder, has become as ubiquitous as battered Converse All Stars in the 00s indie sleaze years. Last week, even the Conservative prime minister, Rishi Sunak, was seen in Adidas Sambas – a move that many have hailed as the final nail in the coffin for the popular trainer. Sunak has since issued a “fulsome apology to the Samba community”. The truth is though, even before Sunak “styled” the Samba with navy trousers and an ironed shirt like everyone’s worst Hinge date, the trainer had become inescapable. Early last year, a TikTok clip of a row of people wearing Sambas on a London train went viral. But this isn’t just a London thing: over the past two years, UK-wide searches for ‘Adidas Samba’ have more than doubled. And, in the celeb world, everyone from Hailey Bieber to A$AP Rocky, Rihanna and Harry Styles have been papped in the trainer. Your mum and her mates are probably wearing them. They even make tiny Sambas with Velcro straps for babies now. Every time the clocks go forward, the Samba gets hailed as the trainer of the summer. So, what gives? What is it about this particular, fairly simple shoe? View image in fullscreen The now-infamous photo of Rishi Sunak ‘ruining’ the popular trainer. Photograph: @rIshisunakmp/Instagram It is not hard to see the appeal of the 74-year-old trainer. With its classic three-stripe design, gum sole and rounded toe, the Samba is visually pleasing – and versatile. When I bought a pair of black Sambas in 2022, I loved how clean and smart they looked. At about £75, they are affordable for an “it” shoe. But, for a lot of young people, it was the brand’s 2020 collaboration with menswear designer Grace Wales Bonner – trainers that are now going for up to £4,000 on some sites – that really elevated the Samba to stratospheric levels. Tiarna Meehan, a 23-year-old London-based fashion graduate, bought three pairs of Wales Bonners in 2022. “It’s the juxtaposition between the typical streetwear shoe with details like lace and delicate stitching that make [them] so appealing,” Meehan says. Meehan believes “the hype on TikTok is definitely a driving force” behind the trend. This is something I hear often. Bea Acworth, 24, who sells secondhand Sambas on Depop from her home in Edinburgh, says the rise of TikTok’s “blokecore” aesthetic (based around vintage replica football shirts, baggy jeans, Sambas) in late 2022 made the trainer a must-have among gen Z. The model Bella Hadid was constantly photographed in Sambas, which was like pouring oil on a fire. A Depop representative says that since the start of the year, searches are up 142%. In the past month alone, they are up 20%. The Samba obsession doesn’t exist in a bubble. Look on TikTok and you will see that there is a wider hunger for nostalgia (see also: Adidas track tops, low-rise jeans, Timberland boots). Adam Cheung, 29, a streetwear expert and founder of Typed Hype, a digital zine about trainer culture, noticed that retro trainers in general started having a moment circa 2022. “Sales for New Balance, for example, increased by 115% that year alone. So when hype surrounding retro trainers began to rise, the Samba was an obvious choice. Adidas began churning out more and more colours so they’d have one that’ll complement everyone and anyone’s personal style and aesthetic.” View image in fullscreen Putting his best foot forward … A$AP Rocky wearing a pair in New York City in 2021. Photograph: Robert Kamau/GC Images It’s true: there is a Samba for everyone (data on the amount of colourways doesn’t exist, but ASOS is now selling more than 100 styles). And there isn’t a typical Samba-wearer. You are just as likely to see a 45-year-old dad who dresses like Liam Gallagher in Sambas as you are a 21-year-old fashion influencer on TikTok. Shropshire-based Pat Frost, 58, who works as the England football team’s kit manager, has been collecting Adidas trainers since the early 2000s. He estimates that he has 504 pairs, 240 of which are Sambas. “I started buying them and just carried on,” he says. “If I keep going the way that I’m going, they’ll be worth more than my house. I’ve had a specially made room in my garden to store and display them.” Frost is not fussed by the sudden uptick in Samba wearers. “They’ve always been cool. They’ve never really gone out of fashion. [We had] the ‘terrace culture’ in the 70s and 80s; everyone would wear them then.” It’s a sentiment echoed this week by the head of British Vogue, Chioma Nnadi. “I think Sambas are a classic,” she told BBC Woman’s Hour. “I don’t subscribe to a trend living and dying.” If anything, Frost says, the quality of the Samba has improved over the years. They have not become flimsier as a result of increased demand. “They’re a really nice-looking trainer nowadays. Adidas have managed to improve them, somehow. They haven’t had a complete overhaul, they’ve just improved the making, stitching, the colourways.” Not everyone is convinced. A lot of people say the Samba craze has gone too far – and that the shoe has become that most unappealing of things: basic. When the Tory prime minister is wearing a trainer, you know it has jumped the shark. Others had already cashed in their chips. Meehan sold their black and green Wales Bonner pair on Depop last year for a few hundred quid. “It paid my deposit to move to London,” they say. Still, Sambas are a timeless classic, and though they may become less hot, most people, like Nnadi, agree that they are unlikely to disappear in the long run. They are way too pretty for that. “The Adidas Samba has been around for seven decades,” says Cheung. “I don’t doubt for a second that they’ll be around for seven more.”
After IDF retreat from Al-Shifa hospital, Palestinians sift through rubble for their dead 2024-04-10 16:10:00+00:00 - It was quiet, grim work for a recovery team this week as it sifted through the rubble of Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. Shovels in hand, they unearthed what appeared to be a femur, a shoulder blade, the bones of a rib cage. For two weeks in March, the Israeli military carried out a devastating raid at Al-Shifa, once the pillar of the Gazan medical system. The siege raised fears for the safety of hundreds of civilians trapped inside. Since the Israel Defense Forces withdrew last week, Palestinian crews have so far recovered the bodies of more than 400 people from Al-Shifa, the surrounding neighborhoods and the southern city of Khan Younis, according to Mahmoud Basal, a spokesman for the Gaza Civil Defense. In a video recorded Monday by an NBC News crew, families watched as workers gathered remains, some of them little more than tattered clothing tangled around a cluster of bones and piled into white bags labeled “unidentified body.” A Palestinian forensic and civil defense crew recover human remains at Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza this week. AFP- Getty Images “Unfortunately, the bodies are rotten, are cut into pieces because of the bulldozers,” said Khalil Hamada, the head of general forensics for the Ministry of Justice. Hamada said Israeli forces used bulldozers to bury the dead in the sandy soil of Al-Shifa. There are numerous shallow graves, and “many dead bodies were partially buried with their limbs visible,” with other bodies uncovered and exposed to the heat, the World Health Organization said Saturday. “Safeguarding dignity, even in death, is an indispensable act of humanity,” WHO said in a statement. In addition to those who were killed in the most recent offensive, in November, during the IDF’s first raid on Al-Shifa, hospital staff had been forced to bury 179 patients in a mass grave. Israeli forces alleged that the hospital was being used as a Hamas hub. Gaza’s Health Ministry said around 30,000 patients, medical staff members and displaced people were sheltering at the hospital, with both the IDF and Gazan authorities saying that hundreds were killed, and hundreds more taken into custody. “Where are they? We do not know if they were detained or buried underground. We want someone to help us. I appeal to all the world to stand with us,” Maha Swelem, a nurse at Al-Shifa, told NBC News in an interview in Arabic on Monday. During the siege, Swelem said that she was corralled into one of the hospital’s buildings, along with about 15 others. After Israeli soldiers shot four people “in front of my eyes,” Swelem said, they then took her husband, a volunteer paramedic. “I don’t know what happened to him yet,” she said. “Did they kill him and bury him?” Dr. Mutasim Salah, a member of a health emergency committee in Gaza, said “the smell of death” permeated the charred ruins of the hospital. But they were determined to keep working to identify the corpses, perhaps bring closure to mourning families and document what he described as a war crime against innocent civilians. A United Nations team visit the grounds of Al-Shifa hospital during the recovery operation. AFP- Getty Images “The scene cannot be described,” Salah said. “Throughout history, we have never seen, heard or thought that one day we would witness such a crime that occurred inside the Shifa Medical Complex.” In a tweet on Saturday, the U.N. said Al-Shifa hospital was an “empty shell following the latest Israeli siege with most of the buildings extensively damaged or destroyed.” In the six months since the start of the war, Israeli forces have repeatedly pummeled hospitals in Gaza, despite international law stating that hospitals should not be attacked during war. The IDF has said Hamas operates command centers at hospitals, uses ambulances to transport militants and funnels hospital-bound fuel to military efforts, all of which Hamas and hospital staff deny. Israel’s military has drawn intense international condemnation for its military operations in Gaza, and many humanitarian groups have accused the country of breaching international law by exercising collective punishment. Hamas’ terror attack in Israel on Oct. 7 left more than 1,200 people dead; Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 33,000 people, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
Inflation has caused summer camp costs to soar. Here are tips for parents on how to save 2024-04-10 16:08:00+00:00 - Tips on how to cut costs for summer camp as prices increase As the countdown to summer begins, some are feeling the burn in their wallets as inflation continues to affect everything from gas prices to food. The latest casualty: parents experiencing the sticker shock of summer camp. Jamie Aderski, a New Jersey mom of two, made a popular video on TikTok that highlighted concerns for parents trying to get their children enrolled in camps and fund them. Aderski said costs have even become too pricey at her neighborhood recreational centers, jumping at least 10% each summer over the past few years. Spots are sometimes taken as early as January. "It's something that's kept me up at night thinking about, 'Well, what am I gonna do with my kids for the summer?' And I've kind of cobbled together a plan, but it's still not enough." Some experts say the summer camp price hike stems from the pandemic. "Families that were not engaged in camp before the pandemic are now interested in camp for their children. Every parent realizes now how important it is that kids have a summer learning program," said Tom Rosenberg, who heads the American Camp Association, a nonprofit that represents about 15,000 camps in the United States. The American Camp Association says the average day camp costs around $87 per day, a figure that can vary across the nation. Rosenberg said costs are set for camp a year ahead of time. "Many industries are impacted by inflation, and camp is no exception," he said. "Every cost of business that camps have across the board really have gone up substantially. What can parents do to offset summer camp costs? Rosenberg offered some tips for parents seeking to enroll their kids in camps. Those included: Asking about financial aid, which many camps provide, along with payment plans Seeking a scholarship through a civic organization Looking into the child and dependent care tax credit, which could offset up to $3,000 of summer camp costs per child Meanwhile, Aderski said she plans to enroll her son in a science camp, keeping it to half days spread throughout the summer. "Seeing him come home and being excited about something and learning something new, that is of course the ultimate goal for any parent," she said. "And camp can be a huge part of that experience. I just wish that there were more options available that were for everybody."
Cost of UK passports to rise for second time in 14 months to up to £100 2024-04-10 15:45:00+00:00 - The cost of a new or renewed UK passport is going up again for the second time in 14 months – rising by 7% to £88.50 for an adult online application from Thursday. Thursday’s rise follows a 9% price hike to £82.50 in February last year. Before that increase, passport fees had not changed for five years and a standard adult online application cost £75.50, or £13 cheaper than this week’s new price. Children’s passports will also cost more from Thursday, going up from £53.50 to £57.50 for an online application. For those applying for the travel documents via a paper form sent in by post, there is an even greater increase, from £93 to £100 for an adult passport and £64 to £69 for a child. Passports are free for people born on or before 2 September 1929. Which? said the increases may come as a shock to people due to renew these documents. Guy Hobbs, a travel expert at the group, told consumers on Wednesday that if they needed to renew their passport “today is your last opportunity to beat the price hikes”. Hobbs said: “While these latest price rises may well reflect rising production or processing costs, the UK passport is now amongst the priciest in Europe – and travellers due to renew will likely be shocked by how much these little blue books now cost. “Travellers should also be aware that from mid-2025 they will need to pay for an Etias [The European Travel Information and Authorisation System] to enter Europe.” Etias, which is modelled on the US Esta scheme, means non-EU travellers will have to fill in a form and pay €7 (£6) before entering Europe’s passport-free zone. The fee will apply to everyone aged between 18 and 70 and is valid for multiple visits over three years. In most cases, approval is expected to be granted within minutes. Delays caused by the pandemic meant that 360,000 customers had to wait more than 10 weeks to get their passports in the first nine months of 2022, according to the National Audit Office. Passengers travelling to Europe are also being warned to watch out for changes that mean their passport could also be invalid even when it appears to be in date. Before Brexit, UK passport holders could travel in and out of the EU if they held a valid passport, even one that expired the day after their return. However, now UK passport holders travelling to any EU country (except Ireland), plus the others in the Schengen area, could be denied boarding if their passport expires less than three months after their return date. Moreover, some have been caught out by the fact the EU considers a passport’s expiry date to be 10 years after its issue date. UK passports issued before September 2018 can have up to nine months added to the 10 years when they are renewed. This has led to British travellers being told they cannot enter the EU, even though it appears to have many months left before the printed expiry date. A Home Office spokesperson said: “The British passport is an invaluable document that allows millions of citizens to travel around the world. “We are increasing the cost of applying for a passport to enable us to keep investing in our efficient and secure passport services and keep improving the quality of service British travellers expect.”
Stamp prices poised to rise again, for the 2nd time this year 2024-04-10 15:15:00+00:00 - Portraitist Michael Deas and the art of postage stamps Portraitist Michael Deas and the art of postage stamps Portraitist Michael Deas and the art of postage stamps When it comes to stamps, the word "forever" on first-class mail doesn't apply to prices. The U.S. Postal Service is signaling that the price of a First-Class Mail Forever stamp will increase to 73 cents on July 14, 2024, up by a nickel from the 68 cents one currently costs. When first introduced in 2007, a Forever stamp was 41 cents. The stamps were named as such so one knew they could use the stamp "forever," regardless of when it was purchased. The latest proposed changes — to be reviewed and approved by the governors of the Postal Service — also include a nickel hike to the price to mail a 1-ounce metered letter, to 69 cents, the postal service said Tuesday in a news release. Mailing a postcard domestically will run you 56 cents, a 3-cent increase, while the price of mailing postcards and letters internationally are both rising by a dime to $1.65. All told, the proposed changes represent a roughly 7.8% increase in the price of sending mail through the agency. Notably, the price of renting a Post Office Box is not going up, and USPS will reduce the cost of postal insurance 10% when mailing an item, it said. The cost of Forever stamps rose to 68 cents in January, from 66 cents. The increases, part of the Postal Service's 10-year plan toward profitability, are hurting mail volume and USPS' bottom line, according to Keep US Posted, a nonprofit advocacy group of consumers, nonprofits, newspapers, greeting card publishers, magazines and catalogs. The group called for the proposed increases to be rejected and for Congress to take a closer look at the Postal Service's operations, citing findings by NDP Analytics in March. "If rate increases continue to proceed at this frequency and magnitude without critical review, it risks plummeting volume further and exacerbating USPS's financial challenges," according to the report commissioned by the Greeting Card Association and Association for Postal Commerce. USPS in November reported a $6.5 billion loss for fiscal 2023, and is projecting a $6.3 billion deficit in 2024.
Wall Street Shudders on Signs of Unexpectedly Strong Inflation 2024-04-10 15:10:54+00:00 - Signs of stubborn inflation rattled Wall Street on Wednesday, with stock prices sliding and government bond yields, which underpin interest rates throughout the economy, jolting higher. The S&P 500 fell over 1 percent for the second time this month and only the fifth time this year. Other major indexes, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, also fell. The sharp moves followed a consumer inflation report that came in hotter than expected, with prices rising 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier, marking another month of stubbornly high inflation. That made it harder for investors to dismiss earlier signs that the progress in cooling inflation was patchy. “The stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The Worst Part of a Wall Street Career May Be Coming to an End 2024-04-10 15:07:04+00:00 - Pulling all-nighters to assemble PowerPoint presentations. Punching numbers into Excel spreadsheets. Finessing the language on esoteric financial documents that may never be read by another soul. Such grunt work has long been a rite of passage in investment banking, an industry at the top of the corporate pyramid that lures thousands of young people every year with the promise of prestige and pay. Until now. Generative artificial intelligence — the technology upending many industries with its ability to produce and crunch new data — has landed on Wall Street. And investment banks, long inured to cultural change, are rapidly turning into Exhibit A on how the new technology could not only supplement but supplant entire ranks of workers. The jobs most immediately at risk are those performed by analysts at the bottom rung of the investment banking business, who put in endless hours to learn the building blocks of corporate finance, including the intricacies of mergers, public offerings and bond deals. Now, A.I. can do much of that work speedily and with considerably less whining.
‘Hell hath no fury like a wealthy person being told no’: can elite shoppers really force Hermès to sell them Birkins? 2024-04-10 15:01:00+00:00 - “Hell hath no fury like a wealthy person being told no,” says Alex Pardoe, an Hermès superfan and TikTok creator, recalling the many times he has seen “grown men and women having five-star meltdowns” within the otherwise fragrant environs of the Hermès flagship store in Paris. These tantrums, says Pardoe, are always sparked by the same conflict: a rich person walks in, asks to buy an Hermès Birkin – fashion’s most high-status handbag, which costs $10,000 or more – and is told that none are available. This happens a lot, because Birkins, according to luxury handbag lore, are not mere products to be sold over the counter like cans of baked beans. Buying a Birkin takes more than money, so the received wisdom says: deliveries are limited and sales associates will earmark them for their favourite clients. View image in fullscreen The model Winnie Harlow with a Birkin bag in New York last year. Photograph: Rachpoot/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images Such stories have been reverberating around the internet for the past fortnight, after two California residents sued the French mega-brand after thwarted attempts to buy the bags. Their suit accuses Hermès of “unlawful tying”: getting customers to buy items such as scarves, jewellery, clothing and home goods to demonstrate “sufficient purchase history”, in order to prove themselves “worthy” of a Birkin. Whether or not it is successful, the suit has raised questions about how Hermès cultivates an air of exclusivity in an age of resale, and it has shone a light on the extreme lengths some customers will go to to convince Hermès that they are Birkin material. Though Hermès (which did not respond to requests for comment for this story) has not confirmed the “tying” practice, there have been complaints of the alleged system. In China, it is called peihuo. Jing Daily reported two protests outside stores during the summer of 2021, with one customer holding a sign that read, “Rubbish Hermès. Peihuo but no bag.” On US and European forums such as r/TheHermesGame – where shoppers swap tips and tricks and share their own try/fail cycles of Birkin acquisition – the alleged practice is called a “prespend”. Debates about how much that “prespend” actually is (some say $20,000-$30,000; others say it’s more important to show “appreciation” of different merchandise categories), whether it exists, and whether it varies from store to store are all hot topics. Such forums offer other advice for would-be Birkin buyers: they decode the lingo (“quota” bags, for example, are the premier handbag styles, such as Birkins and Kellys, of which even favoured customers are only allowed to buy a maximum of two a year) and give tips for striking up meaningful relationships with sales associates (known as SAs) in the quest to attain what one Redditor called “the Scientology of purses”. There are a lot of people with self esteem issues that buy into this whole thing Michael Tonello A lot of the forum obsessives seem to enjoy the process, even when they admit to having spent tens of thousands on homewares they might not have really wanted, and even if that enjoyment is grudging at times. “The thrill of the chase really gets people hooked, addicted, to the process of obtaining one,” says Pardoe, whose work as a celebrity hairdresser (he specialises in hair extensions for clients including Lindsay Lohan and Paris Hilton) funds his own Birkin habit. Roxana Voica, a software developer who saved up to buy a Birkin for her 25th birthday, says the appeal is “artificial scarcity”. She was dogged in her quest, searching through Instagram for posts made close to the location of a Hermès boutique in Dubai, where she was going on holiday, to find an SA to DM before arrival. She says the SA advised her that she would need to spend $27,000 (100,000 AED, £21,000) to get a Birkin. On her first visit to the store, with another SA, she bought some sandals and a belt but was told that the store didn’t “really” have any Birkins “for tourists”. Then she reconnected with the original SA, whom she describes as “truly a gem”, who told her that the brand was due a restock before the end of her holiday – and eventually she was successful. Getting a bag feels “like winning the lottery”, she says. “It’s just like a game – it’s definitely psychological. Because it’s so rare and also very expensive, it is like becoming a part of a very niche group who ‘made it’. I don’t think the hype and the resell prices would be so high if the bags were more easily available.” Literally speaking, the Hermès Birkin is just a bag: trapezoidal in shape, with two handles, a bit of glinting hardware and a flap, only materially different from other luxury handbags because it is still handmade. View image in fullscreen Jane Birkin with her Birkin bag. Photograph: Sarah Lee/The Guardian Scarcity has been essential to the Birkin’s appeal since it first shot to popularity during the It bag days of the late 90s and noughties. It was inspired by Jane Birkin, after a chance meeting between the singer and actor and Jean-Louis Dumas, then Hermès’ executive chairman, on a flight. The bag was launched in 1984 but didn’t become truly famous until a 2001 episode of Sex and the City, in which Samantha Jones’s thwarted attempts to get a Birkin were a big plot point. In the episode, Jones explains that the bag’s appeal is not its design but its significance: “When I’m tooling around town with that bag, I’ll know I’ve made it,” she says. On her first attempt to buy one, she is told there is a five-year waiting list. “For a bag?” She balks, to which the sales associate replies:“It’s not a bag, it’s a Birkin.” Michael Tonello wrote a 2008 bestselling book, Bringing Home the Birkin: My Life in Hot Pursuit of the World’s Most Coveted Handbag, about his own experiences flipping Birkins in the late 90s and noughties. His business began when the singer-songwriter Carole Bayer Sager contacted him on eBay (he was selling Hermès scarves at the time) to ask him if he could source a Birkin. He believes the allegations in the lawsuit reflect the reality of Hermès’ business model, as he experienced it at the time, when the official line was that there was a waitlist for Birkins – something Tonello never quite believed. Ninety-nine per cent of the time, he says, “if I spent somewhere in the vicinity of $5,000 first, then asked for the bag, they would sell it to me”. Tonello’s impression was that the Birkin “was positioned as a reward for being a good customer”. Tonello was eventually put on the brand’s infamous “no fly” list when Hermès got wind of his business. (The news was delivered with typically Hermès politesse: they sent a fax saying that they were cancelling his special orders “because there was a shortage of leather”, he says. “I was kind of like: this seems a bit fishy.”) He describes the Birkin-buying process as “a finely tuned ruse” – a way to maintain a sense of scarcity about the bags while getting “people to buy all that other stuff that, pretty much, people don’t buy at Hermès”. View image in fullscreen A Niloticus Crocodile Birkin 35 at auction at Christie’s. Photograph: Christian Sinibaldi/The Guardian Whether artificial or real (Hermès does not disclose how many it produces annually), it is a perception of scarcity that has helped Birkins endure, while other It bags of the noughties have long gone out of fashion. While the resale market has opened the market up beyond the stores, only high-rollers can access resale bags. Now perceived as an investment – bags bought in store often fetch double the price at resale; rare, diamond-studded iterations have sold for as much as $450,000 at auction – Birkins have been toted by every celebrity imaginable (Victoria Beckham has a huge collection; the Kardashians are awash in the totes; Kate Moss memorably used one as a nappy bag). Even rumblings of a turning tide in 2022, when Beyoncé sang that she preferred Telfar bags in the lyrics to Summer Renaissance (“This Telfar bag imported, Birkins, them shits in storage”) have yet to dent the bottom line. Last year Hermès reported €12bn ($13bn, £10bn) in annual sales; in April 2023, its market capitalisation rose to €210bn ($228bn, £180bn), surpassing Nike despite the vastly smaller number of goods sold. This success is owed to the “quality and scarcity of its leather goods”, according to the Business of Fashion. The way Jeffrey Berk, CEO of a major Miami-based Birkin reseller, Privé Porter, tells it, there are two kinds of Birkin buyers: those who are prepared to do the required “grovelling at Hermès”, and the people who are not, who will come to him to buy Birkins for double the ticket price. His clients include Paris Hilton, Kris Jenner and a lot of rappers including Cardi B, Offset, Lil Baby, Gunna, Tekashi69 and “Kanye West – unfortunately, before we realised who he was”. Many of these clients (“a Jordanian prince, a Saudi royal …”) are people “who don’t want to walk into Hermès and be told what to do”. View image in fullscreen Kris Jenner with a Birkin in New York. Photograph: Everett Collection Inc/Alamy Many customers are among the super-rich 2% of luxury customers who, according to Berk, drive 40% of luxury sales. Still, he says, his celebrity clients get turned down in Hermès all the time, though he won’t say it is ever about bias or snobbery. Rather, he claims, his clients don’t want to play the game: they want “to get the exact colour, size and hardware that they want”. They do not want to buy other Hermès products in order to be deemed Birkin-able. They have the affluence to buy “the $25,000 desk, or the $10,000 bicycle – these are real prices – or the $45,000 trash can” from Hermès, but they are not prepared to be “stuck with a whole bunch of stuff that they don’t want”. Or else they want more bags than Hermès will give them, he says, telling me about the day in 2015 that Kris Jenner walked into his pop-up shop in Aspen, Colorado, and told him that she and her daughters could not quench their Birkin thirst because “no matter how much they were spending, they could only get two bags a year – it was a hard and fast rule”. Berk claims that 70% of his stock comes from Hermès’ VIP buyers, who will sometimes buy bags in colors they do not really want if SAs offer them. By that point, he says, clients are “so invested with the SA and with Hermès” that they are scared to say no, worried they will get the Hermès equivalent of a “negative Uber rating” if they don’t gratefully accept. So they will email Privé Porter, to double check that the company would be interested in trading or reselling (they will write: “they’re really pushing me on rose petal”, he says), before they make the purchase. Clearly, a complex ecosystem has sprung up around Birkins that is making a lot of already rich people – customers flipping Birkins, Birkin resellers and Hermès itself – an awful lot of money. If the allegations are true, and lawsuit is successful, it could disrupt that ecosystem significantly. It seems unlikely that Hermès would flood the market with Birkins, given the brand’s dedication to scarcity. But it might have to find another way to cover the alleged loss of income from ancillary products, if clients suddenly felt less inclined to prove themselves as “loyal” by buying things they don’t actually want, as the suit alleges. The lawyers I spoke to felt the suit was unlikely to succeed. Rania Sedhom, a luxury specialist attorney at Sedhom Law Group PLLC, said: “I just don’t think they can prove what they are complaining of – but even the complaint itself has some flaws. It’s not just that I think they’re going to ultimately lose it,” Sedhom added. “I don’t think the case is going to move forward.” Danielle Garno, partner and co-chair of the entertainment practice at Holland & Knight LLP, agrees that the suit looks like “a very tough uphill battle for the plaintiffs” in part because the plaintiffs would “have to prove that Hermès has sufficient economic power in the market with the Birkin and Kelly bags to essentially shut out competition in the market of the other ancillary products (belts, scarves, home goods, etc)”, which they do not seem likely to be able to do. View image in fullscreen Victoria Beckham with a Birkin in 2007 in Carson, California. Photograph: German Alegria/MLS There’s a another fly in the ointment: Berk tells me he thinks the lawsuit will fail because he can’t see who would want to join the class action, given that the last thing most Hermès shoppers want is to risk being put on the blacklist. Having covered the Birkin beat for decades, Tonello says he is still somewhat amazed by the endurance of these alleged sales tactics. They just seem “a bit rude. I have found it really odd that wealthy people that seem to be able to get what they want put up with this type of thing from a store.” He surmises that “there are a lot of people with self esteem issues that buy into this whole thing – there’s a whole psychology of this that Hermès has worked very well to their advantage”. Perhaps the truth is that many of those customers, for whom so much else comes easily, are hooked on the game of Birkin-hunting, and enjoy perceiving themselves as the type of people who can navigate unwritten rules. Berk, who scoffs at the lawsuit, calls it “a game of kings. If people are suing because they are not a king … I’m sorry – it’s just the way it is. It’s just reality.”
The History Behind Arizona’s 160-Year-Old Abortion Ban 2024-04-10 14:55:14+00:00 - The 160-year-old Arizona abortion ban that was upheld on Tuesday by the state’s highest court was among a wave of anti-abortion laws propelled by some historical twists and turns that might seem surprising. For decades after the United States became a nation, abortion was legal until fetal movement could be felt, usually well into the second trimester. Movement, known as quickening, was the threshold because, in a time before pregnancy tests or ultrasounds, it was the clearest sign that a woman was pregnant. Before that point, “women could try to obtain an abortion without having to fear that it was illegal,” said Johanna Schoen, a professor of history at Rutgers University. After quickening, abortion providers could be charged with a misdemeanor. “I don’t think it was particularly stigmatized,” Dr. Schoen said. “I think what was stigmatized was maybe this idea that you were having sex outside of marriage, but of course, married women also ended their pregnancies.”
Two Russian oligarchs win court ruling over EU sanctions 2024-04-10 14:46:00+00:00 - Two Russian oligarchs have won a surprise victory against EU sanctions over Moscow’s war against Ukraine but remain under punitive measures for the time being. The European court of justice ruled that the European Council had not presented enough evidence to establish that Petr Aven and Mikhail Fridman were involved in efforts that “undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine”. EU’s top court annulled sanctions imposed on the pair from 2022-23. Aven and Fridman were placed on the EU sanctions list shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. In announcing the sanctions in February 2022, the European Council called Aven “one of Vladimir Putin’s closest oligarchs” and stated that Fridman “has managed to cultivate strong ties to the administration of Vladimir Putin, and has been referred to as a top Russian financier and enabler of Putin’s inner circle”. Along with dozens of other Russian oligarchs, Aven and Fridman challenged the sanctions in EU courts, describing them as “spurious and unfounded”. The court of justice ruled on Wednesday that the billionaires should not have been included on the list between February 2022 and March 2023. The ruling will be seen as a major setback to the EU’s sanctions regime against Moscow. The European Council can appeal. An EU decision in March 2023 reimposed the restrictive measures on the two men and they remain sanctioned. Wednesday’s ruling is likely to pave the way for the billionaires to have their sanctions lifted in a separate appeal against the March 2023 action. The two businessmen, who made their money in Russia from oil, banking and retail, are the most high-profile Russians to have a top court rule against their inclusion on the EU’s sanctions list. They remain on the sanctions list of the UK, where the two men resided before the war. Aven, who has an estimated £4.3bn fortune, owns Ingliston House, on 8.5 acres of land in a gated estate next to Wentworth golf course in Surrey. Ukraine-born Fridman, who was listed as the UK’s 11th wealthiest person in the Sunday Times rich list with an estimated £11bn fortune, owns Athlone House, a £65m mansion in Highgate, north London. Both men have given what has been seen as limited criticism of Putin’s war in Ukraine, with Fridman saying in the early weeks of the conflict that it was a “tragedy” and that war “can never be the answer”. Aven has told the Financial Times that he felt compassion for the plight of Ukrainians since the start of the fighting, but he has not directly addressed the war. Fridman told the business outlet RBK on Wednesday that he was “satisfied” with the court’s ruling. Aven has not yet commented on the matter. Russian opposition figures criticised the court’s decision and argued that the two oligarchs had not been vocal enough about Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. “I’d like to ask European politicians: what’s changed since you sanctioned Russian oligarchs?,” Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexei Navalny, wrote on X. “Neither Fridman nor Aven have spoken out against the war or made any efforts to stop it – they’ve simply hired expensive lawyers and influential lobbyists.” Maria Pevchikh, a close Navalny associate who has lobbied for the introduction of sanctions against Russian individuals close to Putin, said: “Today’s date should be marked as the day when European sanctions policy completely collapsed. It’s a day of declaration of impunity and irresponsibility for the war. We can also designate it as a ‘Day of Oligarch Triumph’.”
Heat Alert: Micron Just Got Named A Must-Own Stock for Q2 2024-04-10 14:42:00+00:00 - Key Points Shares of Micron have been rallying hard since last year, with 50% in gains from the past few weeks alone. The company is far from taking a break; it looks like it will keep up this pace for the rest of the quarter. Several key tailwinds are in place to support this, and investors should be excited. 5 stocks we like better than Micron Technology As far as first quarters go, Q1 has got to be one of the greatest ever for Micron Technology, Inc. NASDAQ: MU. The semiconductor stock had already logged a solid 2023, gaining close to 70%, but from the middle of February through the middle of last week, it went on to gain just as much again. For a while there, Micron was experiencing its longest winning streak ever. And while you might think that the stock could take a break now, it looks like there's still a ton more upside to be uncovered. Get Micron Technology alerts: Sign Up Bullish Analyst Comments During the past two weeks, upwards of 20 analysts have given fresh updates on the stock and every one of them has been positive. Last week alone, the teams at Bank of America and Citigroup reiterated their Buy ratings, with Bank of America giving Micron shares a new price target of $144 and Citi giving them one of $150. These moves have already been echoed again this week, with KeyCorp and Cantor Fitzgerald both reiterating their bullish stances and boosting their price targets to $150. Considering Micron closed Tuesday's session at $122, having briefly topped $130 last week, we're looking for at least an additional 22% upside from current levels. Not bad for a stock that has gained more than 100% in the past year, right? So, what exactly are the drivers behind all this bullish price action and stances? And how should those of us on the sidelines think about getting involved? AI Tailwinds Well, for starters, it's no secret that semiconductor stocks have been at the forefront of the explosion of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, as chips and semiconductors are key products needed to harness the power of AI. And even though we're coming up on a year since that tailwind truly emerged, the most recent reports suggest that demand for semiconductors is only increasing as it stays ahead of what even the most bullish analysts expect. Part of Citi's upgrade last week was based on February chip sales coming in ahead of expectations and above seasonality. The point has also been made recently that Micron has benefited from an upswing in things like dynamic RAM pricing. With high-bandwidth memory being a critical component for AI products, analysts expect this to continue acting as a key tailwind to Micron's revenue. For context, Micron is expected to generate around $700 million from this business line in 2024, but this could easily jump to as much as $3 billion by the end of 2025. Smoking the Competition There's also the fact that Micron has managed to steer clear of falling out with China. Competitors Advanced Micro Devices and Intel two have struggled to get the green light to sell into that market, which has spooked investors and started to become a serious handbrake to any share price momentum. Case in point: consider the 50% that Micron has gained since the middle of February, against AMD's -4% drop and Intel's -13% drop. Even against much larger competitor NVIDIA Corp., Micron is crushing. NVIDIA, long considered one of the best semiconductors to own and the one with the most potential, has only tacked on 18% since the middle of February. While it's true that NVIDIA easily outperforms Micron when the timeline is pushed back to include 2023 and before, this recent underperformance against a key peer suggests NVIDIA investors think the company has seen enough gains for the moment. At the same time, it makes it look like Micron investors are in catch-up mode, which means Micron will likely keep being called a must-own stock for the foreseeable future. Before you consider Micron Technology, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Micron Technology wasn't on the list. While Micron Technology currently has a "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here
Apple doubles India iPhone production to $14 billion as it shifts from China: Report 2024-04-10 14:13:00+00:00 - Apple CEO Tim Cook attends the first meeting of the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board with then-President Donald Trump in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 6, 2019. Apple produced $14 billion worth of iPhones in India over the last fiscal year, a sign of the company's continued effort to manufacture more devices outside of China, a report from Bloomberg said Wednesday. As relations between the U.S. and China have soured, Apple has worked to diversify its supply chain by expanding production in countries like Vietnam and India. It's a big shift for the iPhone maker, which has historically relied on China for manufacturing. Apple now makes around 1 in 7, or 14%, of its iPhones in India, twice the amount it produced there last year, the report said. The manufacturer Pegatron assembled around 17% of those iPhones, while Foxconn produced around 67%, according to the report. Wistron built the rest. In June 2023, Apple CEO Tim Cook and other tech executives met with India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, at the White House. Cook told CNBC after the meeting that India represents a "huge opportunity." Apple opened its first retail stores in the country last year. China remains a crucial market for Apple, but sales have been off to a rocky start this year. A Counterpoint Research report from March found that iPhone sales in China dropped 24% in the first six weeks of 2024. The firm said Apple faces significant competition from other smartphone vendors like Huawei. Apple declined to comment.
WD-40 Company Greases the Wheels of Growth and Profits 2024-04-10 14:12:00+00:00 - Key Points WD-40 Company is a multi-faceted investment thesis centered on growth and operational quality. Q2 results are solid, with cash flow allowing for cash build, reinvestment and capital returns. The stock price fell over 3% but investors are buying the dip. 5 stocks we like better than WD-40 WD-40 Company NASDAQ: WDFC is a multi-faceted investment thesis centered on growth and operational quality. The company has worked hard to invigorate growth and improve margins and made another significant step forward in Q2. Not only did the company improve operational quality compared to last year, but it also announced the sale of its harvest segment, which is a bonus for cash, the balance sheet, growth and margin. The harvest segment is a portfolio of cleaning products sold in the United States and Europe. A small portion of the revenue, the segment is a solid cash generator but not the core of the business. Because of competition and the company's focus on its core business, harvest sales have been flagging and fell 3% in Q2. The sale is yet to be finalized; the company is in the early stages of the process but will remove drag from top-line growth while improving net margin and providing additional capital for reinvestment and capital returns. Get WD-40 alerts: Sign Up What this means for the guidance is good news for investors. The company reaffirmed its outlook for full-year revenue growth at up 6% to 12% while narrowing the gross margin outlook and raising the forecast for earnings. Gross margin should run in the range of 51.5% to 53%, up 50bps at the low end from previous guidance, with GAAP EPS of $5.15 at the mid-point. The new mid-point aligns with the prior high-end and may be increased again later in the year. WD-40 Company Outperforms in Q2, Improves Balance Sheet and Value WD-40 Company had a solid quarter in Q2 and delivered results outpacing the consensus reported by Marketbeat. The $139.1 million in revenue is up 6.8% compared to last year, bringing the YTD total to 10%. An FX tailwind added 180bps to the growth. Emerging and developing markets led with a gain of 16%, helped by new markets and deepening penetration. Asia-Pacific grew by 4% and the Americas by 15%. WD-40 Multipurpose grew by 7% on a product basis, led by a 10% increase in Specialists. The "other" segment grew by 9%, and Harvest Brands fell by 3%. Margin news is good. The company's net income and GAAP earnings fell on a YOY basis due to increased ad-spending and the acquisition of its Brazilian distributor, but the gross margin is up. Gross margin improved by 160bps in Q2 to 52.4%, bringing the YTD improvement to 200 basis points. GAAP results are down but offset by the impact of reinvestment and future profit gains. Still, the $1.14 in GAAP earnings is better than expected and aided significant balance sheet improvements. There is Nothing Wrong with WD-40 Company's Balance Sheet or Dividend The balance sheet highlights include a cash build, steady debt/liabilities, and improving shareholder equity. The cash balance is up 15% on a cash-flow positive quarter, assets are up 1%, liabilities are down 1%, and equity is up 3%. The cash flow and balance sheet allow for capital returns, including a dividend and share repurchases. The share repurchases are strategic and primarily intended to offset share-based competition; the share count is down -0.2% YOY. The dividend is more substantial at 1.4%, which aligns with the broad market average and is reliable. The company pays about 65% of earnings, a relatively high payout ratio, but sustainable given the balance sheet, cash flow and growth outlook. This industrial stock has a solid history of dividend increases and can be expected to increase again at the end of the fiscal year. The WD-40 Company Falls into the Buy Zone The price action in WD-40 Company stock fell more than 3% at the open, but early action suggests this is a dip-buying opportunity. The stock began to rebound almost immediately following the opening and may continue to be supported through the session’s end. If so, this stock could continue to rebound and move up to retest recent highs soon. If not, this market may become range-bound below $255 before moving higher later in the year. Before you consider WD-40, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and WD-40 wasn't on the list. While WD-40 currently has a "Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here
Stubborn US inflation dents hopes for imminent Fed interest rate cut 2024-04-10 14:08:00+00:00 - Global financial markets have scaled back expectations for an imminent cut in interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic after figures showed US inflation rose by more than expected in March. Figures from the US Department of Labor show a jump in fuel and housing rental costs drove up the consumer price index (CPI) to 3.5% in March compared with a year earlier, higher than expected by Wall Street economists. In a development triggering a sell-off in financial markets, monthly inflation and core CPI – which removes volatile items including energy and food – also rose by more than predicted. US government bond yields rose sharply, while shares fell in New York amid speculation that stubborn inflationary pressures could force the US Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates. “Expectations for a June Federal Reserve interest rate cut have collapsed,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at the Dutch bank ING. “July is also doubtful, meaning September is the more probable start point of any easing, which would limit the Fed to a maximum of just three rate cuts this year.” The figures also led traders to slash bets for the Bank of England to cut borrowing costs in June, amid concerns that inflation in the US and the UK could persist at higher levels than previously thought. Financial markets are now pricing a 54% chance of the UK central bank keeping interest rates unchanged in June, having previously reflected a greater probability of a cut before the US inflation figures were released. Inflation in the world’s largest economy has fallen sharply from a high of over 9% in 2022 but has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s target rate of 2%. Inflation in the UK has fallen from over 10% last year to 3.4% in February. Figures for March are due to be published next week. The latest figures from the US show March’s increase was driven by rising costs for shelter and gasoline. “Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index,” the labor department said. Gasoline rose 1.7% from the previous month and is 1.3% higher than the same time last year. Shelter is 5.7% higher than a year ago and rose 0.4% over the month. Ryan Stewart, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that gasoline prices typically rise this time of year. “But it still has economic costs as every $0.01 rise in retail gasoline prices reduces consumer spending between $1bn and $1.5bn over the course of a year,” he wrote in a note to investors. The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate from near zero to over 5% over the last 16 months in a bid to cool inflation. Recently the central bank has held off on further rate rises and economists had expected rate cuts later this year. Those hopes have faded in recent weeks amid signs that inflation has remained sticky. The US central bank has a twin mandate – to keep prices under control and achieve maximum employment. The jobs market has remained robust despite the Fed’s attempts to cool the economy, adding 303,000 positions last month. The inflation news will further complicate November’s US elections, as Joe Biden attempts to point to progress in the American economy. Nearly 15.2m jobs have been created since he took office and unemployment has remained below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years. Meanwhile stock markets have hit record highs and inflation – while above the Fed’s target – has fallen sharply. But polling shows that voters are unhappy with the president’s economic stewardship, inflation and high interest rates. Some economists are now predicting that the Fed may not begin cutting rates until after the election. In a statement, Biden said: “Today’s report shows inflation has fallen more than 60% from its peak, but we have more to do to lower costs for hardworking families. Prices are still too high for housing and groceries, even as prices for key household items like milk and eggs are lower than a year ago.” Biden called on corporations to use their “record profits to reduce prices” and attacked Republicans who he said “want to slash taxes for billionaires and big corporations, while helping special interests and big pharma raise prices”. On his social media site Truth Social, Biden’s presidential rival Donald Trump wrote: “INFLATION is BACK—and RAGING! The Fed will never be able to credibly lower interest rates, because they want to protect the worst President in the history of the Untied [sic] States!”
How to Protect your Portfolio Against a Rising VIX 2024-04-10 13:22:00+00:00 - Key Points Investors may find safety in these low-beta reliable businesses as the VIX creeps back to its 2024 highs. With steady and predictable finances, three stocks could be the place to be until the volatility storm passes. High margins, analyst price target boosts, and an attractive dividend all in one trend back to safety. 5 stocks we like better than Equity Residential Stocks never really stay put. Every once in a small timeframe cycle, they tend to jump and have little ‘hiccups’. These hiccups are characterized by spikes in the volatility index (the VIX), which may bring ample opportunity for traders to make a relatively quick buck but is also the source of many investors’ headaches. Recently, the VIX broke back up to its 2024 high again, a level not seen since February. This time around, the spike brought on a small rally in 10-year bond yields, spooking equity investors into thinking the Federal Reserve (the Fed) might choose to skip out on its interest rate cut plans for the year. Get Equity Residential alerts: Sign Up However, not all hope is lost, as savvy investors will know how to navigate these turbulent times with the right mix of reliable and predictable companies in their portfolios. Stocks like The Coca-Cola Co. NYSE: KO, Colgate-Palmolive NYSE: CL, and even Equity Residential NYSE: EQR can bring the right mix of low beta behavior (low volatility) along with the financial stability of consumer staples stocks. It’s All About Coke’s Brand Thousands of Coca-Cola servings are enjoyed every day around the globe, and virtually no region doesn’t recognize the Coca-Cola logo or can say that its population has never tasted one. This brand penetration, loyalty, and recognition give Coke the sort of business moat that Warren Buffett looks for. Translated into its financials, Coca-Cola’s gross margins stand reliably above 58%. Such high margins allow Coke to retain its pricing power in front of consumers, guaranteeing investors that the stock could keep beating inflation for the foreseeable future. In a year when the inflation rate in the U.S. remained between 3-4%, 2023 brought Coca-Cola’s revenue higher by 8%. What matters to investors is how this revenue increased because only 2% came from growth in actual sales volume, and 9% came from price increases. This stock is among the elite few that can raise prices and still see demand grow, as customers are so accustomed and loyal to the brand regardless of price. Knowing how important a reliable business like this will be in the coming months, analysts at Citigroup Inc. boosted their price targets on the stock to $68 a share, calling for a 14% upside from today’s prices. Colgate’s Essentials Investors Can’t Miss Whether the economy is booming or busting, and whether the VIX is at a five-year high or low, people will still need to brush their teeth in the morning and follow other personal hygiene routines. Because of this fact, Colgate’s low beta of only 0.4 may save portfolios from potential swings. Like Coca-Cola, Colgate’s financials show a gross margin rate above 58%, showing the potential pricing power this company carries. More than that, analysts at The Goldman Sachs Group boosted their valuations for the stock up to $93 a share, a target of 6% above today’s price. Reliable and predictable financials allow ample capital management, reflected in the company’s average return on invested capital (ROIC). Over the past 5 years, Colgate has generated an average ROIC of over 25%; not many others can say the same. On an annual performance, stock prices tend to follow ROIC rates over the long-term, which explains Colgate’s stellar 27% rally in the past 6 months alone. Equity Residential Will Always Have Rentals The VIX cushion portfolio wouldn’t be complete without a housing aspect. Equity Residential's portfolio will keep pumping rental income as long as people need a place to live, preferably rent. Despite the added volatility hitting the markets, hopes of lower interest rates, priced in by May or June 2024 based on the FedWatch tool, are pushing the real estate sector higher. Over the past quarter, Equity Residential outperformed the Vanguard Real Estate ETF by more than 5%, which could indicate market preference toward residential real estate over other property types. This stock won't offer investors much growth potential because it is a real estate investment trust (REIT). What it can offer, however, is a 4.2% dividend yield and a low beta of only 0.85. Because of these characteristics, the REIT is now owned 93% by institutions. Zooming out a bit, the stock trades at a 32% discount to its 2022 high of $94.3 a share, reached the last time the Fed took on an interest rate cut cycle. History may not repeat itself, but it could rhyme again for this stock. Before you consider Equity Residential, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Equity Residential wasn't on the list. While Equity Residential currently has a "Hold" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here
Housing Costs Continued to Rise Faster Than Before the Pandemic 2024-04-10 13:05:46+00:00 - Inflation’s most stubborn category remained stubborn last month. Housing costs rose 0.4 percent in March and were up 5.7 percent from a year earlier, both unchanged from the month before. Shelter inflation has cooled since last year, when it peaked at more than 8 percent, but lately that progress has slowed. Housing is by far the largest monthly expense for most families, which means it also weighs heavily in inflation calculations. Shelter accounts for more than a third of the Consumer Price Index, meaning it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to tame inflation fully as long as housing costs continue to rise at their recent rate. Before the pandemic, shelter costs rose at a rate of about 3.5 percent per year. Housing costs in the Consumer Price Index are based on rents. Economists have been expecting housing inflation to cool because of data from companies like Zillow and Apartment List showing rents rising more slowly or even falling outright in some markets. The government’s rent index tends to move more slowly than the private-sector measures because of methodological differences, but economists have been surprised by how long the gap has persisted.
Delta Air Lines Stock Should Take Flight After Solid Report 2024-04-10 12:41:00+00:00 - Key Points Delta Air Lines produced a record quarter and is guiding for growth that could lift the market to fresh highs. Cash flow is solid and allows for debt reduction and capital return while the company reinvests in the business. Analysts view the stock as a deep value and may raise their targets now that guidance is updated. 5 stocks we like better than Delta Air Lines Despite persistently high demand, rapidly improving internal economics and record profits, Delta Air Lines NYSE: DAL stock has struggled to gain traction. The company’s efforts are reducing debt and lowering the leverage ratio, and has it on track to regain investment-quality debt ratings. The cash flow is solid, the company forecasts another massive debt reduction this year, and there is a dividend to consider. The dividend was recently reinstated and is on track for aggressive increases over the next few years. Altogether, this stock has everything it needs for its price to move to new highs, sustain them, and rally to new highs; the only question is if the market will follow through on the opportunity. Get Delta Air Lines alerts: Sign Up Delta Has Record Quarter: Guides for Growth Delta Air Lines had an excellent quarter with strong demand in travel, business, and international segments. The company reported $13.75 billion in net revenue for a gain of 7.8%, which outpaced the consensus reported by Marketbeat by nearly $1 billion or 690 basis points. More importantly, the company’s business is normalizing alongside aggressive optimization of profit hubs, significantly improving profits. The company’s total cost per average seat-mile or CASM fell by 5.7%. Non-fuel costs rose 1.6% to align with forecasts, while fuel costs fell by 5.4%. Total revenue per seat mile fell -0.7% but was offset by volume and cost efficiency to drive a 0.1% profit increase. The result is a 50 basis points improvement in operating margin to 5.1% and $1.4 billion in free cash flow after investments and profit-sharing. On the bottom line, the adjusted EPS is nearly double from last year at $0.45 and 20% ahead of forecasts. The best news in the report is the cash flow and its impact on business health. The company reduced debt by another $1 billion in Q1 and forecasts an additional $3 billion in reduction for the year. The company’s leverage ratio is down to 2.9X and supports a shift in rating quality. Fitch and Moody affirmed their high B ratings and updated the outlook to positive, citing debt reduction and the expectation for cash flow. Regarding cash flow, the company's guidance forecasts mid-to-high single-digit growth in Q1 and full-year earnings in a range with the mid-point above consensus. Delta Air Lines is Undervalued in Many Ways Delta Air Lines is undervalued in many ways, including its price multiple and market outlook. The price multiple is running in the high single digits, about half what it should be given the cash flow, debt reductions, and the expectation for an investment-quality credit rating to follow. The catalyst in this scenario may be the dividend on track for aggressive increases. The company recently reinstated the payment but has yet to match the pre-pandemic payout levels, which are levels it will be able to match and sustain soon. Analysts rate Delta as a Buy and view it as a deep value. Even with the 5% pop in price action driven by the Q1 results, the market is still below the analysts' lowest target. The lowest target implies another 1% upside, and the consensus is about 15% higher. A move toward the consensus will be enough to put the market above critical resistance and may catalyze a technical momentum rally. Delta is at a Critical Turning Point Delta Air Lines stock is at a critical turning point and may move higher. However, we’ve been here before, and there is a risk that resistance will cap gains at the $52 level or lower. In this scenario, the market may consolidate before moving higher or sinking back into its trading range. If the market can sustain upward movement now, set a new high, and sustain it, this transportation stock price could rally through year-end. → Claim Your Complimentary Bitcoin Reward (From Crypto Swap Profits) (Ad) Before you consider Delta Air Lines, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Delta Air Lines wasn't on the list. While Delta Air Lines currently has a "Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here
What Does PVH Guidance Cut Say About Retail Consumer Spending? 2024-04-10 12:00:00+00:00 - Key Points PVH Corp is the owner, manufacturer and distributor of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brand apparel and accessories. PVH Corp.’s Q4 2023 gross margins improved by 440 bps as inventory levels fell 21% YoY. Wholesale customers like Macy's took a cautious approach as they dealt with an inventory glut, causing wholesale channel revenues to fall 10% YoY. 5 stocks we like better than PVH PVH Corp NYSE: PVH is a global apparel company best known for its Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brand clothing, apparel and accessories. The consumer discretionary sector company is segmented into 6 departments, including Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein North America and International divisions and Heritage Brands Wholesale and Retail divisions. The company has been cutting edge with contemporary and modern design trends. The company recovered from its post-pandemic hangover as margins improved while inventories shrank and consumer spending was buoyant. However, its recent earnings guidance cut caused investors to hit the brakes as shares collapsed 22% despite the authorization of a $2 billion stock buyback program. This caused competitor stocks like Capri Holdings Limited NYSE: CPRI, maker of Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors products and Ralph Lauren Co. NYSE: RL to sell off in sympathy. Get PVH alerts: Sign Up Strong Quarter, But Guidance Was Soft PVH Corp reported Q4 2023 EPS of $3.71, beating $3.53 consensus analyst estimates by 19 cents. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) on a GAAP basis was $357 million, including a $5 million positive impact from forex, compared to $297 million in the year-ago period. Revenues were unchanged YoY to $2.49 billion still beating $2.42 billion consensus estimates. The company sold its Heritage Brands women’s intimates business at the close of the fourth quarter. Interest expense fell to $20 million, down from $22 million in the year-ago period. The company approved a $2 billion stock buyback program through July 2028. Stay on top of the stock market sectors on MarketBeat. Ugly Downside Guidance PVH Corp. issued downside fiscal Q1 2024 EPS of $2.15 versus $2.59 consensus estimates. Revenues are expected to fall 11% at $1.90 billion versus $2.08 billion consensus estimates. Full-year 2024 EPS is expected between $10.75 to $11.00 versus $12.11 consensus estimates. Full-year 2024 revenues are expected to be between $8.57 billion and 8.66 billion versus the consensus estimates of $9.04 billion. Macroeconomic Conditions Divisive Across Regions International revenues rose 4% YoY, driven mainly by Asia Pacific growth, which offset the challenging macroeconomic conditions in Europe. This impacted the wholesale channel. Tommy Hilfiger's revenues rose 1% YoY, while Tommy Hilfiger International saw revenues decline 1%. Tommy Hilfiger North America saw a 4% revenue increase. Calvin Klein's revenue increased 4% YoY. Calvin Klein International's revenue increased by 12%, while Calvin Klein North America's revenue fell 8% YoY. Department Stores Cautious Over Inventory Glut The weakness in wholesale overshadowed the strong growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC). This can be attributed to major department stores like Macy's Inc. NYSE: M and Nordstrom Inc. NYSE: JWN being ever more cautious on inventory levels as they recover from post-pandemic inventory glut. Wholesale revenues fell 10% YoY, which was inclusive of the 3% reduction from the Heritage Brands women's intimates business. Wholesale customers took a cautious approach to managing their inventory levels by ordering less. Get AI-powered insights on MarketBeat. Margin Improvement Gross margins improved to 60.3% versus 55.9% in the year-ago period. This was attributed to benefits from lower products, freight and logistics costs and a favorable shift in the channel mix regionally. Inventories fell 21% YoY as the company proactively managed inventory levels. CEO Insights PVH Corp. CEO Stefan Larsson noted how the company drove double-digit growth in its owned and operated e-commerce and high-single-digit growth in its stores. Larsson noted how the company ended 2023 in great shape, with inventory down 21% YoY, producing significant cash flow to buy back $550 million of stock. They have grown their European business to 20% larger than it was in 2019. Asia is a growth engine taking share with double-digit revenue growth. Larsson remained upbeat, brushing off the lowered guidance, "From a number's perspective, this translates into our guidance for 2024 of revenue down 6% to 7% or down approximately 3% to 4% on a comparable basis, excluding the sale of our Heritage Brands intimates business at 53rd week in 2023. We're driving further gross margin expansion and despite the deleverage from our European business, we will maintain our EBIT margins versus 2023.” Daily Ascending Triangle Breakdown Pattern The PVH candlestick chart illustrates an ascending triangle breakdown pattern. Prior to the earnings report, PVH had formed an ascending trendline from the $128.18 swing low comprised of higher lows on pullbacks. The flat-top horizontal trendline formed at $141.15 heading into Q4 2023 earnings. The weak guidance caused a gap down to $113.32 and a 22% price collapse. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is attempting to coil through the oversold 30-band. Pullback support levels are at $104.72, $99.42, $92.90 and $88.04. PVH Corp. analyst ratings and price targets are at MarketBeat. The MarketBeat stock screener can help you find PVH Corp's peers and competitor stocks. Before you consider PVH, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and PVH wasn't on the list. While PVH currently has a "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here