Senate Democrats’ rare edge is also a warning sign to Joe Biden

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In what is shaping up to be one of the weirdest elections in recent memory, here’s another oddity to throw on the pile: It’s a pretty good time to be an incumbent Senate Democrat running for re-election this fall — but not to be the president of the United States. If you’re Joe Biden, you have a favorability rating below 40%, and you’re tied with a someone in the presidential polls who's been convicted with 34 felony counts. But if you’re a Senate Democrat, you’re flush with cash and, more likely than not, leading in the polls. According to an NBC analysis of first-quarter fundraising results in the 10 most competitive Senate races, Democrats ended the quarter with $100 million in the bank. Republicans had only $42.5 million on hand. Take, for example, the most recent Senate polling from Emerson. The polling outfit has Nevada incumbent Jacky Rosen up 12, Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey at +6, Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar ahead 11 points, and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin ahead by 2. Even first-time Senate candidates Ruben Gallego in Arizona and Elissa Slotkin in Michigan are up 4 over their GOP opponents. By contrast, Biden is losing to Trump in all those states, except in Minnesota, where he’s tied (and no one is expecting Minnesota to be all that close this year). This divide is not new; it’s been showing up in blue state polls for several months now. But what is surprising about the polling numbers for Senate Democrats is that they’re also doing well in states where one might expect Democrats to fare poorly. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown might be the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country. But recent polling shows him leading Republican Bernie Moreno — and, more importantly, above 50%, which is traditionally a good sign for an incumbent seeking re-election. Even in Montana, another red state, incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is neck-and-neck with his GOP opponent, Tim Sheehy. Aside from these early polling leads, Democrats are also crushing the GOP in fundraising. According to an NBC analysis of first-quarter fundraising results in the 10 most competitive Senate races, Democrats ended the quarter with $100 million in the bank. Republicans had only $42.5 million on hand. In individual races, the Democrats’ money advantage is even more stark. Brown and Tester have around a 5-1 advantage in cash on hand compared to their GOP opponents. Rosen and Gallego have a nearly 4-1 edge. The advantage is not as great for Casey and Baldwin, who are facing deep-pocketed Republicans — but both are still ahead in fundraising and nearly doubling their opponents in cash on hand. Money in politics, however, is not determinative, and Brown and Tester still face an uphill challenge to win in states where Trump should triumph easily in the presidential race. But the Democrats’ financial edge gives them one major advantage: They can spend much of the summer running millions on ads to attack their opponents. For Senate incumbents with well-defined political brands, the opportunity to define their relatively lesser-known opponents before they can even get on the air could be decisive. But even with all the good news on fundraising and polling, Democrats currently have 51 seats in the Senate — so they have virtually no margin for error. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement — and the entry of popular incumbent Gov. Jim Justice into the race — practically ensures that seat will flip to the GOP. They need to hold every vulnerable seat and win the presidency, so Kamala Harris will remain the tie-breaking vote as the president of the Senate. And there is little chance of them flipping a GOP-held seat. While one recent poll has Republican Rick Scott with a narrow lead over his Democratic opponent, Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Florida is at best a long shot to go blue. Still, with five months before Election Day, the real possibility of Democrats holding the Senate is an unexpected surprise. Even more unexpected is that all of this is likely good news for Biden. While this might seem counter-intuitive, that Senate Democrats are faring better than Biden suggests that voters are not gripped by anti-incumbent fever, nor are hopelessly opposed to the Democratic Party. Their issue is not with Democrats; it’s with Biden. The polling gaps we’re currently seeing between Biden and Senate Democrats are the opposite of what we’ve seen in national politics over the past few years. That lends credence to the notion that Biden’s lousy poll numbers are a sign of protest from Democrats who are unhappy now with the president but still intend to vote for him in the fall. If Democratic voters are comfortable with Rosen in Nevada, Casey in Pennsylvania or Slotkin in Michigan, it shouldn’t take much persuasion to get them to pull the lever for Biden on Election Day, too. Indeed, the polling gaps we’re currently seeing between Biden and Senate Democrats are the opposite of what we’ve seen in national politics over the past few years. As Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight pointed out recently, “Seven states voted for different parties for president and for Senate” in 2004. But in 2016, the same party won in Senate and presidential races in every state. In 2020, only one state (Maine) voted differently in the Senate and presidential races. The median difference between presidential and Senate margins was 3 points in 2020; in 2004, it was 20 points. In short, split-ticket voting in presidential election years has largely disappeared. It’s possible that even in an era of intense political polarization, the nation will revert to the politics of 20 years ago and Senate Democrats will dramatically outperform the president. But don’t count on it. The more likely scenario is that Democratic voters will return to their political home and cast a ballot for Biden — however begrudgingly. Don’t get me wrong: Biden still has his work cut out for him. If he fails to convince enough wayward Democrats to come back, he could end up a one-term president. But as long as Senate Democrats are holding their own, his path to re-election could be a bit smoother than his current poll numbers suggest.