How Netanyahu is playing Biden on Israel's cease-fire proposal

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At the end of May, President Joe Biden announced that Israel had proposed a three-phase plan to achieve a permanent cease-fire and the return of hostages taken by Hamas. Dennis Ross, the former U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, told MSNBC at the time that the plan had been approved by the Israeli war cabinet, and a number of news outlets also reported news of cabinet approval. Biden’s speech clearly signaled that he wanted Israel to stick with the plan. But just a few days later, an Israeli official told NBC News that Biden’s description of the proposal was “not accurate,” and reports emerged in the Israeli press that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was telling members of the Knesset that the proposal Biden described was incomplete. Then, on Sunday, Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14, a pro-Netanyahu network, that he only supports a “partial deal” that will release “some of the hostages” and allow him to carry on some fighting in the Gaza Strip. In other words, he was walking back his own proposal. But the very next day, Netanyahu said he’s still committed to the original proposal. Ultimately he wants to prolong the war as long as possible to keep his governing coalition intact. Why is Netanyahu being so squirmy? He’s contorting himself to try to appeal to different crowds. He wants to appear at least somewhat responsive to critics of his military strategy in Gaza. But ultimately he wants to prolong the war as long as possible to keep his governing coalition intact — and delay having to face potential consequences for looming corruption charges and for mishandling national security ahead of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks. The Biden administration is once again being played by Netanyahu. There’s no evidence that Netanyahu will take steps to end the war without having his hand forced by the U.S. “His personal political considerations outweigh everything else,” Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel, told me. “He’s willing to pay a price in Israeli relations with the U.S., which is one of the most important issues for Israel’s entire national security strategy. And he’s certainly willing to pay a price with part of the electorate.” The portion of Netanyahu’s language that seems to support a cease-fire proposal allows him to claim to domestic audiences that he’s making progress toward a long-delayed goal of freeing Israel’s hostages who remain captive in the Gaza Strip. Polls show that most Israelis still support Netanyahu’s military operation, but most also dislike Netanyahu and support a hostage deal. Hamas has responded to Israel’s cease-fire proposal with demands regarding security guarantees during the phase transitions that Israel has said are tantamount to a rejection of the proposal. But regardless of the ongoing negotiations on that front, the question of Netanyahu’s sincere commitment to an actual permanent cease-fire plan remains. Netanyahu can also use seemingly pro-cease-fire rhetoric to give the impression that he’s listening to Biden and other critics around the world who’ve been pressing him to end a military operation which has killed civilians en masse, destroyed the Gaza Strip and been characterized by international human rights groups and some Israeli scholars as genocidal. But it’s foolish and dangerous to believe Netanyahu favors a path to peace. His governing coalition relies on extreme right-wing parties that adamantly oppose ending the war and whose goal includes Israel reviving a military occupation of the Gaza Strip and resettling the territory. Rashid Khalidi, a historian at Columbia University, told me he believes that Netanyahu “clearly does not intend to have a permanent cease-fire” because the government is “hostage” to those right-wing parties. Those parties have said they will defect from Netanyahu’s coalition if he takes any serious steps to end the war, which would cause his government to collapse and him to lose power, Khalidi said. The end of the war would also mean Netanyahu facing a grand reckoning. A commission of national inquiry investigating what went wrong in Israel’s security in the run-up to the Oct. 7 attacks could conclude that Netanyahu bears serious responsibility and should be barred from being prime minister. And Netanyahu’s corruption charges, the prosecution of which has been delayed by the war, would probably pick up speed and could result in his imprisonment. Netanyahu has alienated top political and military leaders in Israel by dragging his feet on the question of ending the war and allowing his political interests to dictate policy. Former Gen. Benny Gantz quit Netanyahu’s war Cabinet citing the prime minister’s failure to commit to a clear postwar plan. And in a remarkable break from protocol, the Israel Defense Forces’ top spokesperson openly undermined Netanyahu’s military strategy by saying that Netanyahu was “throwing sand in the eyes of the public” by promising that it was possible to completely destroy Hamas. “Hamas is an idea. Anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong,” he said in a recent interview with an Israeli broadcaster. “The political echelon needs to find an alternative — or it will remain.” The Israeli military has dismantled most of Hamas’ battalions, but its assessment is that it’s impossible to kill every Hamas fighter or the idea of armed resistance. And Hamas is already raking in new recruits. The upshot of all this is that gentle pleas from the U.S. are not going to halt Netanyahu’s relentless military operation. Netanyahu is seemingly not only indifferent to Palestinian life, but also the wishes of the Israeli security establishment and the parts of the Israeli public keen to see the hostages back. Biden must exercise the leverage the U.S. has over Israel and give it an ultimatum to find a way to end the war.