Japan's megabanks eye BOJ boost after solid first quarter

2023-07-31 - Scroll down for original article

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG)

Summary

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is one of Japan's megabanks and is the second-largest lender by assets. SMFG, along with other Japanese banks, has been experiencing the impact of rock-bottom interest rates for years. However, a recent policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) towards policy normalization has raised hopes of improved business conditions for Japanese banks. SMFG reported solid quarterly profits and maintained its full-year net profit forecast. The impact of the BOJ's policy shift has not been factored into the forecasts yet.

Article Analysis

The article highlights the positive effects of the BOJ's relaxation of its cap on bond yields. Higher government bond yields are expected to increase returns for lenders, benefiting major banks like SMFG. The article suggests that the Japanese banking environment is improving, but the end of negative interest rate policy may still take time.

Market Reaction

It is important to analyze the historical market reaction to similar news events. The article mentions that Japan's benchmark index of banking stocks reached an eight-year high following the BOJ's policy relaxation. This indicates that investors responded positively to the news, showing increased confidence in the banking sector.

Investor Sentiment

Investor sentiment can be evaluated by considering various factors, such as changes in trading volume, options activity, and analyst opinions. While the article does not provide specific information on these factors, the positive market reaction suggests that investor sentiment towards SMFG may have improved.

Competitor Comparison

To assess the impact of the news on SMFG's competitive position, it is essential to compare its performance and market position to its main competitors. Unfortunately, the article does not provide information on the performance or market position of SMFG's competitors. However, given the positive market reaction, SMFG is likely to benefit from improved business conditions relative to its competitors.

Risk Factors

The article does not explicitly mention any significant risk factors that may impact SMFG's stock price. However, it is crucial to consider broader industry risks and challenges. For instance, regulatory changes, economic uncertainty, or global financial market conditions can affect the banking sector as a whole. These risks should be monitored closely.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, the news article has generally positive sentiment towards SMFG and suggests an improving business environment for Japanese banks. The article highlights the potential benefit of higher government bond yields and future policy normalization. Given the positive market reaction, there may be short-term opportunities for investors in SMFG's stock. However, it is important to consider broader industry risks and challenges. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This financial report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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[1/2] Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation's signboard is pictured at its branch in Tokyo, Japan, January 25, 2017. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Summary Companies SMFG, Mizuho both keep annual profit forecasts SMFG says end to negative rates would bring 30 bln yen boost Top banks revamp their businesses to withstand ultra-low rates TOKYO, July 31 (Reuters) - Two of Japan's megabanks reported solid quarterly profits on Monday amid hopes the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) nudge towards policy normalisation will herald a sea change in their business after years of being squeezed by rock-bottom interest rates. The central bank's relaxation of its cap on bond yields on Friday boosted the prospect of higher government bond yields creating a windfall for lenders, sending Japan's benchmark index of banking stocks (.IBNKS.T) to an eight-year high. Higher government bond yields will in the long run lift returns on bond holdings at major lenders, which have had limited options for where to park huge deposits and so flocked to higher-yielding assets overseas such as U.S. Treasuries. The tailwind comes as top banks revamp their businesses to withstand ultra-low rates at home by slimming domestic retail operations, beefing up their presence in Asia through acquisitions and ramping up U.S. investment banking. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) (8316.T) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T), Japan's second- and third-largest lenders by assets respectively, on Monday stuck to their full-year net profit forecasts, which point to their highest earnings since the mid 2010s. Both forecasts have not factored in the impact of the latest policy shift. "It might take a while till the BOJ ends its negative interest rate policy," IwaiCosmo Securities analyst Tomoaki Kawasaki said. "But the business environment for the Japanese lenders is improving." For April-June, SMFG reported a net profit of 248 billion yen ($1.75 billion), down 1.8% from the same period a year earlier but accounting for 30% of its annual profit forecast of 820 billion yen. Mizuho's net profit for the quarter jumped 53.9% to 245.19 billion yen, representing 40% of its annual profit forecast. Japan's biggest lender, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) (8306.T), will report quarterly earnings on Tuesday. Years of ultra-low interest rates in Japan have meant lenders have little margin for earnings from lending, which has typically translated into a discount for Japanese banking stocks. SMFG is trading at a price to book value of 0.7, meaning its shares are trading at a discount to the value of its assets. In comparison, U.S. bank JP Morgan (JPM.N) is trading at almost twice the value of its assets, according to Refinitiv data. The Japanese banks, however, say a full earnings impact will only be felt after the BOJ ends its negative interest rate policy, where it imposes a 0.1% interest rate on a portion of excess reserves banks park with the central bank. SMFG said it expects a policy rate increase to 0% would boost its annual net interest income by 30 billion yen. While the latest policy change does not necessarily hasten the end of negative interest rates, "normalisation of the policy will come into sight if stable inflation is confirmed," IwaiCosmo's Kawasaki said. ($1 = 141.7000 yen) Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki, Anton Bridge and David Dolan; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Mark Potter Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.