The Next Month in the Economy Could Be Crucial for the Presidential Election

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It didn’t take long for former President Donald J. Trump to make a political weapon out of Monday’s market sell-off. “Stock markets are crashing, jobs numbers are terrible, we are heading to World War III, and we have two of the most incompetent ‘leaders’ in history,” Mr. Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “This is not good.” The post underscored Mr. Trump’s longstanding fixation on stock indexes as a barometer of economic health. It also reinforced the degree to which economic messaging — and the health of the economy itself — will play a key role in the sprint finish ahead of the presidential vote in November. American voters consistently tell pollsters that the economy and consumer prices are the most important issues facing the country. The former president and his presumptive Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, are seeking to sell voters on diametrically opposite stories about the economy’s health. Mr. Trump wants voters to believe the economy is on the brink of catastrophe, and that Ms. Harris and President Biden are to blame. He has joined a chorus of negativity that has in some ways worked: Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans believe the economy is in recession, even though economic statistics suggest it is not. Economic growth was surprisingly strong in the first half of the year. Job growth has remained relatively strong, even with the slowdown in job creation in July.