Interest Rates Are About to Do Something They Haven't Done Since March 2020, and It Could Trigger a Big Move in the Stock Market

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Inflation refers to the general rise in the price of goods and services. The U.S. Federal Reserve aims to keep the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation growing at an annual rate of 2%, and the central bank will adjust the federal funds rate (overnight interest rates) when it deviates too far from that target. The CPI hit a 40-year high of 8% in 2022, triggering one of the most aggressive campaigns to hike interest rates in the history of the Fed. The rate of inflation has cooled considerably since then, so the central bank appears set to reverse that policy. That means interest rates may be cut for the first time since March 2020. If history is any guide, that could trigger a big move in the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) stock market index -- but the direction might surprise you. The Fed could cut interest rates three times before the end of 2024 The U.S. government injected trillions of dollars' worth of stimulus into the economy during 2020 and 2021 to counteract the negative economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the Fed slashed interest rates to a historic low of 0% to 0.25%, and it injected trillions of dollars into the financial system through quantitative easing (QE) by buying government and agency bonds. Loose monetary policy and drastic increases in money supply tend to be inflationary, but disruptions to global supply chains also drove prices higher. Factories and shippers were periodically shutting down all over the world to stop the spread of COVID-19, which led to shortages of everything from televisions to cars. So, a cocktail of factors sent the CPI surging during 2022, which triggered the flurry of rate hikes that followed. The federal funds rate ultimately settled at 5.25% to 5.50% after the Fed's last rate hike in August 2023. That's a long way from the pandemic low point. But here's the good news: It's working. The CPI ended 2023 at 4.1%, and it came in at an annualized rate of 3% in June 2024, which is the most recent reading. In other words, inflation is closing in on the Fed's 2% target. That's why most experts are expecting imminent rate cuts. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the Fed is likely to cut rates three times by the end of 2024 (once each in September, November, and December). The stock market doesn't always respond well to rate cuts Conventional wisdom suggests rate cuts are great for the stock market. They reduce the yield on risk-free assets like cash and Treasury bonds, which pushes investors into growth assets like stocks and real estate. Story continues However, if we examine the chart below, which overlays the federal funds rate with the S&P 500 going all the way back to 2000, we can see that falling interest rates often foreshadow a decline in the stock market. ^SPX Chart To be clear, the prevailing trend is always up for the S&P 500, so long-term investors shouldn't be swayed by the potential for imminent weakness. Plus, there were some overriding themes in the past that make this correlation a little murky. In other words, we have to look at why the Fed was cutting rates during the periods depicted in the above chart: During the early 2000s, the dot-com tech bubble burst, which triggered a recession in the economy. The S&P 500 fell by 9.1% in 2000, 11.9% in 2001, and 22.1% in 2002. During the late 2000s, the global financial crisis forced a decisive intervention by the Fed, which included rapid rate cuts and the introduction of QE for the first time. The S&P 500 plunged 37% in 2008. Finally, the sharp fall in rates in 2020 was triggered by the pandemic. The S&P 500 suffered a peak-to-trough decline of 31.8% in 2020, but it actually ended the year in positive territory thanks to all of the stimulus I mentioned earlier. Therefore, we can't exactly say that the stock market fell because the Fed cut rates. Rather, it likely fell on each of those occasions because of what else was happening in the underlying economy. Image source: Getty Images. Will this time be different? There are no signs of an impending crisis for the U.S. economy right now, nor of a garden-variety recession. But there are some signs of weakness. The unemployment rate, for example, has ticked higher to 4.3% (from 3.7% in January), and a softening jobs market can be a precursor for weak consumer spending in the near future. Since the CPI is almost back to the Fed's target, it probably isn't appropriate to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Plus, interest rate moves tend to have a lagged effect on the economy, so it's possible we haven't even seen the full effect of the Fed's past hikes just yet. By the same token, any rate cuts at the end of this year probably won't feed through to the economic data until sometime in 2025. That means the sooner the Fed starts cutting, the higher the probability the U.S. economy will avoid any unnecessary deterioration down the road. The stock market trades based on corporate earnings, and it's very hard for companies to deliver growth in a slowing economy. If Wall Street starts to reduce earnings forecasts, that will almost certainly lead to a down period for stocks. In that scenario, the S&P 500 could be falling while the Fed is cutting rates at the same time. The Fed typically cuts rates when it observes weakness in the economy, which can be a signal that the S&P 500 is heading lower in the short term. 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