USA vs. Portugal: Will 2023 World Cup end an American soccer dynasty?

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After its first two games in the group stage, the 2023 U.S. women’s national soccer team is headed into a must-win match Tuesday against Portugal. So far, the women have played, well, fine — but a “fine” squad will not win an unprecedented third consecutive World Cup. So is Team USA simply overmatched, if not by the raw skill level of its rivals, then perhaps by its own sense of confidence and the pressure of inevitability? Is it time, after a surprisingly slow start, for fans to panic? In 2023, the ability to coast on talent alone has never felt like more of a losing approach. These women have historically been brilliant. But skills have covered up deficiencies in coaching and strategy. And in 2023, the ability to coast on talent alone has never felt like more of a losing approach. Like it or not, the U.S. women will always have a specific burden to bear. As women’s soccer’s highest-profile global ambassadors, they have also symbolically transcended the sport with their stances on issues like equal pay and LGBTQ rights. But they still have to win. And after an unimpressive 3-0 victory over struggling Vietnam, followed by a nerve-wracking 1-1 tie against the Netherlands, alarm bells are ringing. Granted, this is not exactly the team it was four years ago, with a new generation of young players taking the spotlight on the pitch. What is particularly distressing is that this is not a question of talent. On that front the U.S. could go toe-to-toe with anyone. It is another problem altogether. As Ryan O’Hanlon wrote in ESPN.com, “The USWNT’s worst enemy is, well, themselves.” This is true. There is so much in soccer that is uncontrollable. But you can control the precision of play. You can control the structure of an offense or defense. And yet, the defensive press and offensive mojo of the USWNT has so far looked confused and uninspired. This made it all the more curious that manager Vlatko Andonovski only cycled in one player off the bench against the Netherlands. An injection of focus and life could have tilted the game, and the U.S. squad is extremely deep. But Andonovski, frustratingly, did not give them the chance. This is part of that same pattern. The team, including its coaches, is making matches harder than they need to be. According to an ESPN analysis, the Americans are ranked just 15th across the tournament in “completed passes.” What a revealing statistic. This is a team with arguably the world’s best player in Lindsay Horan, who plays alongside international superstars like Alex Morgan, Julie Ertz and Sophia Smith. They simply need to be better. While the U.S. team has, no soccer reference intended, shot itself in the foot thus far, its lackluster play can also be partly explained by its opponents. Professor Brenda Elsey, who studies women’s soccer and development in Latin America, has noted “a deep culture of misogyny and official resistance” that envelopes the sport across the world. This misogyny affects resources, coaching and the quality of the fields. The absence of oversight in many cases has aided cultures of sexual abuse. And yet, paradoxically, the mightiness of the U.S. team — and the rising popularity of women’s soccer globally — has meant that the world is catching up. The Title IX advantage that the U.S. women have enjoyed for decades is starting to dissipate. Due to the landmark 1972 legislation that unlocked educational and particularly athletic opportunity for millions of women, the U.S. women’s operation had a head start on the kind of training necessary for international competition. (Elsey, when researching women’s soccer in Latin America says, “I always am asked, ‘How did you get Title IX and how do we get ours?’”) Going forward, I believe the U.S. women will find that while talent may have made up for bouts of uninspired play and poor coaching in the past, the gap is shrinking. This August, we may find out not just how much that gap has shrunk, but whether the United States can adjust in the face of this new normal, and capture the country’s imagination yet again.