Florida’s abortion ban sets the stage for a test ahead of November

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When a six-week abortion ban goes into effect in Florida on Wednesday, it will be the beginning of a race to overturn it through a ballot measure this fall. In light of the horrendous Democratic turnout in 2022, some in the Sunshine State think it may give them a lift, possibly even putting Florida in play for President Joe Biden. But if abortion-rights supporters want to pass the amendment, they'll need to set partisan politics aside and figure out how to win big. While abortion access is popular in Florida, this amendment will need to hit a 60% supermajority to pass. Breaking down the numbers means the amendment will not pass without significant support from Republicans and independents since Florida voter registration shows the state is 39% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 29% independent and other. Constitutional amendments to protect women’s reproductive rights were passed in red states such as Kansas and Ohio, but neither state hit Florida’s supermajority requirement. Yes, constitutional amendments to protect women’s reproductive rights were passed in red states such as Kansas (59%) and Ohio (57%), but neither state hit Florida’s supermajority requirement. In addition, the Kansas vote was taken during a summer primary, and Ohio was in an off-election year, when the amendment was at the top of the ticket. That allowed them to win by running targeted get-out-the-vote operations that identified voters who supported women’s reproductive rights from all parties and got them to the polls. Florida's election, by comparison, will come at a time of maximum partisan turnout, as hard-core voters tuned into the presidential contest make sure to show up and vote. Simply put, many Trump voters will have to support the amendment for it to pass. The campaign cannot be about Biden, and it must be about casting a vote to support women’s reproductive health care. Still, it's doable. Republican support was critical to getting the amendment on the ballot, and it worked because the focus was on the issue, not a candidate. Democrats who are excited about Florida need to be careful not to tie this amendment too closely to the presidential race. Sign up for MSNBC’s new How to Win 2024 newsletter and get election insights like this delivered to your inbox weekly.