How to Read the Fed’s Projections Like a Pro

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Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to release both an interest-rate decision and a fresh set of economic projections on Wednesday, and Wall Street has been eagerly awaiting those revised estimates for clues on when interest rate cuts may begin. Officials are expected to leave rates unchanged in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, where they have been since July 2023. That is the highest rate setting in more than two decades. Central bankers came into the year expecting to cut rates several times by the end of 2024, but that outlook has shifted somewhat after inflation proved surprisingly stubborn at the start of the year. The question now is when officials may begin to cut rates — and how much borrowing costs will actually move down. Investors will carefully parse the Fed’s fresh forecasts for hints. Here’s how to read the numbers. The dot plot, decoded When the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus obsessively on one part in particular: the so-called dot plot.